If trumpcare Fails, Is That It? (Congress, drug, health care, death)

[dothetwist]

If they don't repeal and replace Obamacare, is it the death knell of this administration? How do GOP elected officials face their constituents? How does the GOP re-group for tax reform, for infrastructure? Isn't their credibility shot?

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by dothetwist

If they don't repeal and replace Obamacare, is it the death knell of this administration?

No, but it will negatively impact them, since it was one of Trump's key-note pieces of legislation.

Originally Posted by dothetwist

How do GOP elected officials face their constituents? How does the GOP re-group for tax reform, for infrastructure? Isn't their credibility shot?

I'm guessing the 2018 mid-term elections will tell the tale.

[steven_h]

What will the Dems run on?

The pubs said they could fix our horrible legislation for years and then failed?

Do they think people will want them to take another crack at destroying the healthcare system once and for all?

Single payer sucks, regardless of what socialists claim. It will go from bad to worse to bloated and terrible with some bureaucratic nimrods deciding who lives and dies.

Originally Posted by Mircea

I'm guessing the 2018 mid-term elections will tell the tale.

The Dems have a far higher hill to climb than the pubs. I believe that no matter what happens with HC they will lose1-2 seats. People are smarter than given credit, and their memories better than politicians believe. While they'll be mad at Pubs for not fixing it, they'll not forget who passed it in the first place. The dems are the ones who made it almost impossible to repeal and replace without a super majority.

[ottomobeale]

Originally Posted by Mircea

No, but it will negatively impact them, since it was one of Trump's key-note pieces of legislation.

I'm guessing the 2018 mid-term elections will tell the tale.

The Senate is near hopeless for the Democrats in 2018. It would be near miraculous for them if they only lost 1. I see best for them is likely -2 or -3.

Originally Posted by steven_h

What will the Dems run on?.

Good point. beyond that, I kind of doubt they would even go to single payer. They take tons of money from big pharma and the insurance companies.

[Leo58]

I don't really see why they have to repeal and replace in this session. I know, that's what they campaigned on for 7 years, and it looks pretty poor that they don't even have a viable idea for a replacement. But if they can't pass anything this session, why not work on it some more this fall or next spring? Anything of this importance is worth taking one's time on.

[Enigma777]

Originally Posted by dothetwist

If they don't repeal and replace Obamacare, is it the death knell of this administration? How do GOP elected officials face their constituents? How does the GOP re-group for tax reform, for infrastructure? Isn't their credibility shot?

If it fails, they are in for one wicked tweetstorm.

Be prepared for all those who vote No to have their cellphone nos. published.

[CCbaxter]

If the repugs cant get it done in front of the American people, honestly, then they will back door it and defund it and defacto end it without having to take the heat for doing so.
Much like they will let social security crash when they could easily fix it, then stand ringing their hands saying there was just nothing they could do.

[banjomike]

Originally Posted by dothetwist

If they don't repeal and replace Obamacare, is it the death knell of this administration? How do GOP elected officials face their constituents? How does the GOP re-group for tax reform, for infrastructure? Isn't their credibility shot?

It will stop the tinkering with health care for a year or so. Nobody will touch it until after the 2018 election, but the issue could be taken up again in 2019.

The other half of the Republican problem is they have tied their tax reform program to the elimination of MedicAid.

The 'reform' is actually a shift. Fewer taxes on the rich, more on the middle class. The only way the budget will balance, though, is to eliminate MedicAid. The cuts that the rich will get won't be made up by the increase from the middle class.

The unexpected problem is the GOP failed to realize that MedicAid is paying for the elderly's upkeep in rest homes all across the nation. It's also paying for the upkeep of all the mentally impaired who are living on their own or in homes, and the upkeep for all the folks who have chronic, lifelong health conditions that require constant attention; things like paralysis, care for terminal illnesses, and care for the chronically mentally disturbed.

A lot of the last on that list are veterans. Many more are the middle-aged men who are no longer employable nor fit for work.

All are the voters who consistently vote Republican the most. The red states use MedicAid the most, in general, for all the health care for the indigent and others who have no insurance as well.

So, it's gonna take them some time to make their base happy, but it's a Catch-22; either they make their middle class and poor base happy, or they make their rich supporters happy. There's no way at present they can make both happy at the same time.

It has log-jammed the party and the Trump agenda. McConnell can't get around the jam except by busting it up. So he will try a forced vote that will fail, and once it has failed, he can then move on to tax reform by some other plan, and stand a better chance of getting some reform passed.

With health care off the table for a full year to come, this allows time for an alternative reform plan to be written. ObamaCare and MedicAid are tied together so tightly they can't be un-tied. The entire health industry has adjusted to them now, and undoing one or the other is something that the insurers, the hospitals, the retirement home industry, and all the goods and services connected to all of them simply cannot endure.

The only place there is any swing room is the pharmaceutical industry, and it's having a hard time with international competition in both research and production. That's why the drug companies are lobbying so hard and dumping so much money into the GOP right now. They're the only ones that are vulnerable to public opinion.

"Just Say No!" turned out to be a lot tougher to undo than back when Obama was President. Once folks actually started using the ObamaCare plans, universal health care became a citizen's right, not an option any longer.

Nobody is gonna support any politician who promises to go back to the days when health care was all left up to the individual or his employer. Nobody is going to allow Grandma to get kicked out to the street when the nursing home closes, either. It's a different day now.

So I expect the issue will find the typical solution; it will be kicked down the road for another Congress to fix. I seriously doubt the new Congress sworn in in 2019 will do any better than this one at coming up with a good fix to the shortcomings, so ObamaCare will stick around to 2020, I think.

Past that is anyone's guess. But all the failed plans still kept Obamacare until 2026 anyway, so I think Congress will just let it go and let it cool down before they come back to it. And when they do, it will be to fix the problems that exist, not a repeal and replacement. They can do that a little at a time, and anything that shows progress will help them all win again.

[DRob4JC]

Is it really "Trumpcare" if he is not involved in the details?

Seems like Congress is on the hook for this and Trump would sign almost anything that passes his desk.

[GotHereQuickAsICould]

Originally Posted by steven_h

What will the Dems run on?...

They could run on not being Russian stooges.

How's that for a platform?