Nancy Pelosi downplays low unemployment says what really matters is consumer confidence

[Ferd]

Originally Posted by Joe90

Sure, but it can't be said that she lost due to her policies.

Joe, did you even look at the results of this election?


There is ZERO question that she lost because of policy, personality, and position.
Hillary lost Wisconsin. She lost that state because voters that traditionally voted for democrats felt like the party had walked away from them. That's POLICY.


Shoot, even Michael Moore predicted Trump would beat Hillary over this very thing. google it. It was about middle class blue collar workers feeling they had been disregarded by the democrat party. That was POLICY.

[godofthunder9010]

Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth

You Realize that the current LFPR trend started in 2013. Don't worry it will begin its downward movement soon.

Not so much really. Obama's presidency saw a few upticks and plateaus that offered false hope, but the LFPR always continued its downward descent. It's possible that it leveled off under Obama, but based on what his term looked like before 2013 it was likely to continue dropping like it had for the previous 5 years of his time in office.

The leveling off effect seems strange considering that "it was all retiring baby boomers" and "Obama did nothing wrong." Aren't there a ton of boomers still retiring right now? Yeah I never believed that load of BS.

I will continue to use the real unemployment rate -- LFPR -- to gage any recovery or non-recovery going forwards. It's nice to say that unemployment is super-low and who cares who is president. The unemployment rate is one of the most manipulated statistics in the history of statistics, so it's hard to put much stock in that.

[WilliamSmyth]

Originally Posted by godofthunder9010

Not so much really. Obama's presidency saw a few upticks and plateaus that offered false hope, but the LFPR always continued its downward descent. It's possible that it leveled off under Obama, but based on what his term looked like before 2013 it was likely to continue dropping like it had for the previous 5 years of his time in office.

The leveling off effect seems strange considering that "it was all retiring baby boomers" and "Obama did nothing wrong." Aren't there a ton of boomers still retiring right now? Yeah I never believed that load of BS.

I will continue to use the real unemployment rate -- LFPR -- to gage any recovery or non-recovery going forwards. It's nice to say that unemployment is super-low and who cares who is president. The unemployment rate is one of the most manipulated statistics in the history of statistics, so it's hard to put much stock in that.

Its been almost 5 years since the LFPR stopped decling

Oct 2013 LFPR 62.8
May 2018 LFPR 62.7


Yes, a bunch of the decline between 2008-2012 was tied to the economy. A Fed economist calculated half the decline during that period was for economic reasons.

Given the demographic pressures to drive it down the fact that it is going sideways is a pretty clear sign that almost all the people who dropped out have returned to the labor force.
The BLS does track the number of people out of the workforce who say they what a job. The net number of those people today is not that much higher than what it was in 2000 when the LFPR hit the record high. Without a pool of people out of the workforce willing to return and combined with the high rate of people leaving the workforce will result in the LFPR going lower.

[pknopp]

Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth

Its been almost 5 years since the LFPR stopped decling

Oct 2013 LFPR 62.8
May 2018 LFPR 62.7


Yes, a bunch of the decline between 2008-2012 was tied to the economy. A Fed economist calculated half the decline during that period was for economic reasons.

Given the demographic pressures to drive it down the fact that it is going sideways is a pretty clear sign that almost all the people who dropped out have returned to the labor force.
The BLS does track the number of people out of the workforce who say they what a job. The net number of those people today is not that much higher than what it was in 2000 when the LFPR hit the record high. Without a pool of people out of the workforce willing to return and combined with the high rate of people leaving the workforce will result in the LFPR going lower.

Making $9.00 an hour while better than not is not the salvation to the economy.