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The US and Iran are not going to war with each other.
Oh, yes, they are. Watch what happens.
Quote:
Originally Posted by g500
This nonsense needs to stop.
It's not nonsense, but it is The Planâ„¢.
And, it has been The Planâ„¢ for a very long time. It's called Geo-Political Strategy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by g500
Iran is actually a highly developed country considering standard of living.
I wouldn't disagree, but that has no bearing on The Planâ„¢.
Quote:
Originally Posted by g500
Iran GDP is weak, but that is due to their isolation. Iran should abandon their nuclear program, and in exchange the US should lift all sanctions.
That would be the wrong thing to do.
Iran needs to continue their nuclear energy program.
The dual-reactors at Bushwehr can be used to power desalinization plants and provide electricity for a very large part of Iran.
That does two things. 1) it allows the Iranian Plateau to be irrigated, and so used for agricultural production, which will allow Iran to become a net-exporter of food to the global market, and 2) it will allow Iran to shut down diesel and diesel oil electrical power plants and either divert that oil to the global market to ease shortages, or use that oil for petro-chemicals, which will create many jobs for Iranians and reduce their perennial 20% Unemployment Rate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by g500
We do not want war.
I'm sure you don't, but you are not the government and you most certainly are not in charge of, nor do you have any control over, your Geo-Political Strategy, and your Geo-Political Strategy specially calls for and requires control of Iran.
Do you understand that US Presidents have zero control over Geo-Strategy?
I'm guessing you don't.
Quote:
Originally Posted by g500
Two developed nations at war will spill over and destabilize the world.
That will never happen.
It will be all over in 30-60 days.
You wouldn't understand, because you were never involved with, nor did you ever train for, the invasion of Iran.
It's real simple.
It goes like this: land and carrier based strike aircraft take out the bridges in the Zagros Mountains and damage the hydro-electric power plant, while a Brigade Combat Team takes up a blocking position at the junction of Highways 8 & 10.
Game....Set....Match.
It will take years to rebuild the bridges and repair the power plant, so nothing is coming through the Zagros Mountains, and so long as the Brigade Combat Team has air support, they can sit there indefinitely.
The US now controls 80% of Iran's oil and natural gas and their major ports. Nothing is being imported or exported.
After 30 days, the Iranian people have no food, limited water, no gasoline, no diesel, no electricity and phones or other communications.
They'll be in the streets fighting each other, fighting the Revolutionary Guard, fighting the regular army, and the Revolutionary Guard will be fighting the regular army.
The US just sits back and laughs, and when the dust clears, it takes over.
You wouldn't understand, because you were never involved with, nor did you ever train for, the invasion of Iran.
It's real simple.
It goes like this: land and carrier based strike aircraft take out the bridges in the Zagros Mountains and damage the hydro-electric power plant, while a Brigade Combat Team takes up a blocking position at the junction of Highways 8 & 10.
Game....Set....Match.
It will take years to rebuild the bridges and repair the power plant, so nothing is coming through the Zagros Mountains, and so long as the Brigade Combat Team has air support, they can sit there indefinitely.
The US now controls 80% of Iran's oil and natural gas and their major ports. Nothing is being imported or exported.
After 30 days, the Iranian people have no food, limited water, no gasoline, no diesel, no electricity and phones or other communications.
They'll be in the streets fighting each other, fighting the Revolutionary Guard, fighting the regular army, and the Revolutionary Guard will be fighting the regular army.
The US just sits back and laughs, and when the dust clears, it takes over.
Is this something you dreamed up watching Game of Thrones? Because it is about as realistic as that is. Will we be "greeted as liberators"?
All empires must end, I guess the only positive would be that this would finally bring that conclusion.
Actually I'm thinking several steps ahead where our involvement escalates into a protracted unwinable war, thousand of innocent civilians killed, terrorists emboldened, troops killed/maimed, suicides, addiction, families ruined, trillions of taxpayer dollars blown up...
You seem ignorant of not only the past but the present right under your nose.
That is the most likely scenario, and what millions of people thought would be the end result of an invasion of Iraq.
Bolton is a war hawk. You know something is going to happen to start ANOTHER war. Curious as to why Bolton, another Warhawk, who never served in the military. These big talkers all seemed to have avoided serving in the military yet they act like war is the answer to almost every problem.
I guess a lot gets accomplished through diplomacy. </sarcasm>
Bolton is a war hawk. You know something is going to happen to start ANOTHER war. Curious as to why Bolton, another Warhawk, who never served in the military. These big talkers all seemed to have avoided serving in the military yet they act like war is the answer to almost every problem.
From what I've seen of this story so far Bolton is literally chafing at the bit to attack Iran. And what's scary is that to this day Bolton argues that the invasion of Iraq was a major success. This guy is literally off his rocker.
Actually I'm thinking several steps ahead where our involvement escalates into a protracted unwinable war, thousand of innocent civilians killed, terrorists emboldened, troops killed/maimed, suicides, addiction, families ruined, trillions of taxpayer dollars blown up...
You seem ignorant of not only the past but the present right under your nose.
Lack of political willpower, thanks to pacifists like yourself, is one of the main reasons our war efforts become so challenged. You don't believe we should stand up for anything. You believe that we should be walked on by other countries simply to avoid going to war. You believe that we should just pretend bad people don't exist in the world, and hope nobody tries to take advantage of us, or our allies.
I'm sorry but that is a terrible strategy. In the real world, peace comes through strength, and the willingness to stand up to those who try and take advantage of you. This idea that everyone will leave us alone if we leave them alone is dangerously misguided and has been proven wrong countless times throughout history.
Lack of political willpower, thanks to pacifists like yourself, is one of the main reasons our war efforts become so challenged. You don't believe we should stand up for anything. You believe that we should be walked on by other countries simply to avoid going to war. You believe that we should just pretend bad people don't exist in the world, and hope nobody tries to take advantage of us, or our allies.
I'm sorry but that is a terrible strategy. In the real world, peace comes through strength, and the willingness to stand up to those who try and take advantage of you. This idea that everyone will leave us alone if we leave them alone is dangerously misguided and has been proven wrong countless times throughout history.
Your response is nonsense since I'm not a pacifist. You mess with me, my family or my property and you'll find that out quickly.
Try another angle to defend your illegal, immoral, crony contractor funding, wars of choice.
Lack of political willpower, thanks to pacifists like yourself, is one of the main reasons our war efforts become so challenged. You don't believe we should stand up for anything. You believe that we should be walked on by other countries simply to avoid going to war. You believe that we should just pretend bad people don't exist in the world, and hope nobody tries to take advantage of us, or our allies.
I'm sorry but that is a terrible strategy. In the real world, peace comes through strength, and the willingness to stand up to those who try and take advantage of you. This idea that everyone will leave us alone if we leave them alone is dangerously misguided and has been proven wrong countless times throughout history.
Lol, you are a neocon, having to get involved in every little thing that happens in the world, despite it being of zero interests to the US (aside from having to go out of your way crafting it to be of interest), because well, your types just need to get your nose in stuff.
Amazing thing is that while you may have served, many of the popular neocons never served a day in their life, yet they are right there in the front thumping their chest.
In this case, Iran is on the other side of the world, they have zero bases or any assets next to us, all the while we have dotted their border with base after base. If Iran ever attacks us, sure, attack back, but this whole grandeur about "standing up for ourselves" is pure BS.
If you want to really protect the US, why not take NK out? If there was ever justification for a preemptive attack, NK would be it. Instead, the US rather wade into some 1000 year old religious conflict, than actually protect the US. The US will just let NK continue to develop its missile and nuclear weapons program, all the while squawking about Iran because dur dur, Saudi Arabia not like them.
And from Admiral Kimmel;
"Seventeen years later the United States stands poised once more on the brink of shooting war. If the fighting must start again, let us demand the full truth in advance as a condition precedent to the conflict. Are we again bound by secret commitments which put the interest of other countries ahead of the interests of the United States? Are our far-flung armed forces spread around the world for our own defense, or as an assurance that we will automatically participate in every brushfire that breaks out any place on earth? The terrible truth about Pearl Harbor should galvanize our foreign policy with impenetrable armor of our own national self interest."
Is this something you dreamed up watching Game of Thrones?
No, it was at the National Training Center.
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Originally Posted by odanny
Because it is about as realistic as that is.
Uh-huh.
And, pray tell, what did you get when you solved for F(0)?
Okay, then what did you get for E(d)?
C'mon, in the S-3 Section we used to do that stuff in our sleep.
Oooops....am I talking over your head?
So, you're totally clueless and have no idea how to calculate how many aircraft you need to take out the four bridges in the Zagros Mountains.
Got it.
What I described in a real battle plan that all four branches of the US military have been practicing for decades.
It's one of several plans, actually.
Quote:
Originally Posted by odanny
Will we be "greeted as liberators"?
Your ignorance is truly astonishing.
Obviously, you know nothing about Iran, other than it exists -- somewhere out there... I doubt you could find it on a map.
Khuzestan Province is a province in southwest Iran. It is bounded by the Persian Gulf to the south, Iraq to the west, the Zagros Mountains to the north, and a very small strip of land about 8-10 miles wide to the east.
80% of Iran's oil and natural gas is located right there in that province. The other 20% is located up north on the border with Azerbaijan -- another place you couldn't find on a map to save your life. And, because 80% of Iran's oil and natural gas is there, there are lots of refineries. And ports.
There's an under-strength straight-leg infantry division there, although typically at least one battalion in each brigade/regiment is equipped with APCs, which are no match for IFVs/CFVs.
Once the four bridges in the Zagros are gone, no one's coming across those mountains.
Who on this forum would like to know why?
Because it's not like the Rockies or the Himalayas. It's like the Grand Canyon. A river runs west-northwest through the mountains in a huge gorge, specifically the Karun River.
You'd have to climb down several thousand feet of sheer cliffs, swim across the river, then climb up several thousand of sheer cliffs. So, it's not like they're going to be using donkeys and pack-mules like the Taliban do in the Himalayas.
Donkeys don't rock climb.
Good luck with that.
Will we be greeted as liberators?
The people in Khuzestan are not Persians. They're Arabs. Even the Turkic minority out-numbers the Persians.
During the Iraq-Iran War, Khuzestan Province declared independence and tried to secede from Iran.
It's quite likely, with US troops present, they'll declare independence once again and this time they'll be successful.
There's no threat from the south, west or north, leaving only a small area to the east. Land a marine expeditionary brigade there, and it's all over. The MEB has organic artillery, and then Army division artillery coming from Kuwait, plus III Corps Artillery, destroyers in the Gulf with their 5"/127 mm guns and land and carrier-based aircraft.
Ain't nothing gonna touch them. Highway 8 and Highway 10 will be like the Highway of Death x 10,000. Well, I guess 20,000 since there's two of them.
Air and sea-launched cruise missiles will take out electric plants and telecommunications. Iranians are sitting in the dark, with no news, limited water, because water treatment plans and water pumps require electricity, and after 30 days, no food, no gasoline, no diesel, so commerce is at a total stand-still, and total chaos.
And, then, the Balochs will probably declare Baluchistan independent. That's just more headaches for what's left of the Iranian government.
Since the US will be sitting on 80% of Iran's oil and natural gas, no interruption to the global market.
No US troops have to go anywhere in the Iranian interior.
The US just has to sit back and wait, and it can wait for years.
My guess is the terror group MEK will gain power. The MEK was on the terror list from the early 1960s up to the invasion of Iraq, when the MEK was hired by the US to interrogate Iraqi EPWs.
The person I was responding to claimed Trump has done more to deescalate conflict in the ME, do any of those things sound like de-escalation. Trump is doing his best to promote a conflict so I guess that makes me an anti-Semite. Diplomacy and reasonable actions are the answer but that shop has sailed with this administration with the likes of Bolton calling the shots.
In the last week, US foreign policy has fallen apart. North Korea has gone back to missile tests. Iran has pulled out of the Obama nuclear deal and is going back to developing nuclear weapons. The US backed revolution in Venezuela fell flat on its face.
I bet Bolton is wishing Trump and Tillerson had not gutted the Foreign Service.
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