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Old 05-14-2019, 10:31 PM
 
Location: TUS/PDX
7,825 posts, read 4,568,735 times
Reputation: 8859

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Yield curve inversion is a real thing but as I've mentioned previously, as long as earnings hold no catastrophe is imminent. Tariff policy could have a material impact on earnings. Time will tell. If companies start missing their earnings things could get big-time ugly in a hurry.

 
Old 05-15-2019, 04:13 AM
 
Location: NY
16,083 posts, read 6,857,292 times
Reputation: 12349
So their profit this year will only be 10 million instead of lat year's 15 million.
Time to roll out the peanut butter and cheese. Them lines are gonna form fast...................
 
Old 05-15-2019, 04:24 AM
 
34,300 posts, read 15,661,250 times
Reputation: 13053
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodnight View Post
The inversion has preceded every recession going back decades, it has accurately predicted the last 5.
If one was good enough to get the job done why do we need two now to believe it ?

We all know a recession is coming, as they always do, What we need to know is when.
 
Old 05-15-2019, 05:09 AM
 
Location: Long Island
8,840 posts, read 4,807,524 times
Reputation: 6479
Quote:
Originally Posted by RowingFiend View Post
The liberals are giddy with excitement at the chance of a major crash that would destroy the lives of millions. Pathetic.
Yeah but all us liberals are on the welfare, the Medicaid, and the food stamps right? As long as we can suck on the government teat we don't care, you keep telling us.
 
Old 05-15-2019, 06:16 AM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
5,772 posts, read 3,225,043 times
Reputation: 6115
Quote:
Originally Posted by RowingFiend View Post
The liberals are giddy with excitement at the chance of a major crash that would destroy the lives of millions. Pathetic.

Answer me this. How is your life better under Trump? I mean you personally.

Don't give me some obscure answer that doesn't work its way down to the working class.
And if you try to tell me that all boats rise in a rising economy. That may work for ocean liners like the Koch brothers are on but it doesn't work for the rest of us who can't maintain the rafts that we are on to begin with.


Under the new tax plan, I got thousands back that I would have otherwise had to pay. Republican politicians are saying that we are in the most robust economy that we have been in in 50 years. They also said that there would be no increase in the national debt if the economy grew. There is a lie right there.
 
Old 05-15-2019, 06:32 AM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
5,772 posts, read 3,225,043 times
Reputation: 6115
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnOurWayHome View Post
Yeah but all us liberals are on the welfare, the Medicaid, and the food stamps right? As long as we can suck on the government teat we don't care, you keep telling us.

What is interesting about that statement is that those who are the most dependent on the welfare state are in the reddest of states in the deep South. More often than not Florida votes republican. Senator Rubio has more than hinted that they will be going after Medicare and Social Security next. Republicans in Florida refuse to see far enough ahead that Florida can become another Alabama.
 
Old 05-15-2019, 06:40 AM
 
13,898 posts, read 6,448,989 times
Reputation: 6960
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
Answer me this. How is your life better under Trump? I mean you personally.

Don't give me some obscure answer that doesn't work its way down to the working class.
And if you try to tell me that all boats rise in a rising economy. That may work for ocean liners like the Koch brothers are on but it doesn't work for the rest of us who can't maintain the rafts that we are on to begin with.


Under the new tax plan, I got thousands back that I would have otherwise had to pay. Republican politicians are saying that we are in the most robust economy that we have been in in 50 years. They also said that there would be no increase in the national debt if the economy grew. There is a lie right there.
So your life has been better under Trump? Thanks for admitting it!
 
Old 05-15-2019, 06:41 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,076 posts, read 51,246,227 times
Reputation: 28325
I will be closely watching retail sales over the next couple months. If sticker shock from tariffs induces consumers to either postpone or not buy, a recession is certain. Today's retail number missed economists' predictions FWIW.
 
Old 05-15-2019, 06:48 AM
 
4,661 posts, read 1,954,435 times
Reputation: 4650
Recessions always occur. A variety of Economist have been talking about it for years. Sooner or later somebody will be right and the people who guessed right about the time will write books and make infomercials how they predicted the Recession of 20**.
 
Old 05-15-2019, 06:50 AM
 
1,881 posts, read 1,011,211 times
Reputation: 1551
the numbers at my job which measures travel on a broad scale nationally are flat and have been all year for the most part.. While I don't think a crash is occurring I can sense a slow down. Much of the stock market is reactionary too and not proactive.. So when these slightly slower numbers hit bottom lines thats when we'll see the markets react.. It's obvious we've been riding a bit high lately anyway. I wouldn't be buying stocks currently aggressively
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