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I hate to burst anyone`s little snot bubble but in 2016 Trump ran against one of the most despised women in this country and he still had 3 million less votes. She`s not running this time. If it wasn`t for pouting Bernie supporters, 1 in 10 of whom voted for Trump he wouldn`t have won the EC. Sorry.
I agree with most of this, as every Jill Stein voter literally could've saved Hillary. That said, there was no shortage of people that stayed home in 2016 in MI, WI, and PA large metros that didn't stay home in 2012.
AZ will stay red at least another 12 years. Minnesota could flip to red. Small as it is, NH may flip to red also. Both were ultra close in 2016.
As for Rust belt, Trump just needed either 1 of Mi or Pa in 2016. The other was gravy on top. With any one, he has 270. Either w/o Wi still got him to 270.
Pa & Wi IMO will stay red. Obama masked a Pa DNC problem, by getting Philly voters out in numbers which no Dem ever saw, nor will it happen again. HRC got a Philly turnout like Kerry, Gore, & Bubba, and western rural Pa discovered their power, so they will return in huge numbers. Pa is more rural than urban in mindset than libs like to admit. It was not natural for Pa not to be tilting just as solid Red Ohio did.
Dems need to be on bended knee trying to win a few wwc deplorables back. 99% of them are gone to Team Red forever. They make up the Rust belt & Pa plurality. Can't get squashed by them and win states they have huge pluralities in.
Surely rural farmers in these states would not want the guy (Trump) who destroyed their livelihood and put them on welfare to be the next guy in charge. Surely these rural types are not that dumb?
Don't feel like listening to that idiot to hear is specific reasons, but generally, he is right. If the election were held today, Trump would win, and the reasons would be really simple.
First, he's the incumbent, and they start off with a massive advantage in TV time, fundraising, focus, message, etc.
Second, Americans don't typically switch horses midstream. And I know people say this is the singular, unprecedented incumbent who defies that rule, but they said he exact same thing about Obama, and Dubyah, and Clinton, and Reagan, and.... Point being, in the hysterical world of American politics, "history" is a period of about the last 2-4 years, and anything before that is unknowable void. So it feels unprecedented, but watching from the nonpartisan, historically knowledgeable sound booth...trust me, it isn't.
Third, the winning Democrat strategy is a sober, centrist, "only_adult_in_the_room" platform, which exactly every viable candidate has either abandoned entirely (everyone other than Biden) or cannot pull off because of being senile/insane (Biden).
Moore knows, as does anyone with eyes who is willing to see, that the DNC is counting votes incorrectly. Dem_Nominee_01 gets 40-45% of the vote no matter what. Republican_Nominee_01 get another 40-45% of the vote no matter what. The votes that win the election are the 10-20% that don't go one way or the other no matter what. The top three planks of the leading candidates - more illegal immigration, more free stuff with huge price tags, taking away Constitutionally protected rights - do not poll well among that 10-20% undecided cohort.
Sure, they may fix/alter that platform a bunch between now and next November, as well as remember who and what it is they are running against, but right now, today...they lose this election by a bigger margin than 2016, and big enough that only 1984 is a bigger beatdown.
You put your finger on the reason Michael Moore predicted Trump would win in 2016 and would win today.
The Democrats started with a field of 24 and now down to about 10 or so. Normal People don’t like any of them much. Not only that ... but the Media has a favorite, the Far Left has a favorite, TeamObama has a favorite ... and none of those “favorites†match up.
Not a single one of them has anything positive to say about the USA.
They all try to outdo each other with Crazy schemes of FREE FREE FREE.
The thing that doesn't make sense to me is that the Dems are pushing a far left agenda that I don't think most voters are for. I can't imagine too many Americans that are struggling to make ends meet would be ok with giving people here illegally free medical coverage. I can't imagine that people are ok with decriminalizing illegal entry into the country. All of this "free" stuff costs money.
Shouldn't the parties be catering to the needs and wants of the average person, jobs, healthcare, infrastructure, education. Those basic barebones "kitchen table" conversations.
Every time I watch the democrats debate or when they are speaking on the campaign it's like they are always scolding you, particularly when Harris speaks, but they all do it. They lecture us and call people xenophobes and racists and how America is basically bad, I mean if you strip it all away the message is basically how America sucks.
Donald Trump and as much as I dislike him, he seems to value the country more, his core message is different, it's more positive, more let's make things better.
I've said this before but when the democrats speak half the time I feel like I have to go stand in the corner facing the wall.
I'm an independent voter, and have been watching the Democrat candidates and debates closely.
At this point, I'm watching and waiting to see who has good common moderate sense on policies--and if anyone could handle the economy the same as, or better than, Trump.
So far, I think Amy Klobuchar might be the best of the heap, but gotta be honest, they are all mostly total clowns who will say anything at any point to bash Trump or go with the far left yelling.
If the election were held tomorrow, I don't think I could vote for any of the Democrats. Biden *could* have my vote, but come on, gotta be real--the guy is losing it before our eyes. The poor guy is not sharp and can't remember a thing. Warren is concise and talks good bullet points, but there is NO WAY she can win against Trump. Plus I think she is too socialist leaning for my taste.
Trump would win if the election were tomorrow.
I was hoping for more with Biden. I thought at first he stood a chance, but he's done for, he just doesn't know it yet. The guy is a gaff machine buffoon, not to mention that he's starting to say stupid far left stuff now, I thought he would ride that moderate lane but he's trying to compete for who can say the dumbest far left stuff now.
Klobuchar doesn't have a chance, but she seemed pretty ok. I think Gabbard is good on her foreign policy, but she's a bit too far left still, and she's got no chance either.
Thinking of Warren as President is akin to imagining a prostate exam by a doctor with huge hands a phobia against cutting his fingernails.
Seriously, there are so many better choices that are also completely sane. Warren doesn't have any redeeming qualities. She is very nearly as bad as Hillary was.
Trump is bad, but there is no need to elect someone like Warren. Choose a moderate who is willing put country before party.
I don't think Warren has any kind of a likeability factor to her. She's comes off like a screeching chicken with her head cut off.
She's a total schoolmarm, not to mention a liar who gamed the system to gain advantage over others with her native American horsecrap.
Surely rural farmers in these states would not want the guy (Trump) who destroyed their livelihood and put them on welfare to be the next guy in charge. Surely these rural types are not that dumb?
It's not as simple as that. A lot of these people just value their way of life and country more than they even value their personal economy......
Michael Moore says "If the election were tonight, Trump would win"
Sure. He would be the only candidate, so he would win. That's how Saddam Hussein also 'won'.
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