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We're rapidly reaching herd immunity in those areas already hardest hit. A very safe and conservative estimation is that ten times the number of confirmed cases have had it.I'd say its considerably higher than that, 20 times at least. The ones catching it now are those that were isolated initially with limited contact. The retired, the elderly in nursing homes that were protected quickly with no visitation rules and health screenings. Eventually they'll come in contact with it.
It went through our workplace like wildfire. One death, a dozen confirmed cases and many dozens who showed very mild symptoms. We got the yada yada protections put in place( not that they were much good, honestly) but by that time it was already going around and had infected everybody.
But to continue destroying the economy based on a fear of the inevitable is just stupid. It will continue to infect people. You won't get a vaccine in 3 months or 3 years. It will burn itself out or be around in one form or another like the flu.
We're rapidly reaching herd immunity in those areas already hardest hit. A very safe and conservative estimation is that ten times the number of confirmed cases have had it.I'd say its considerably higher than that, 20 times at least. The ones catching it now are those that were isolated initially with limited contact. The retired, the elderly in nursing homes that were protected quickly with no visitation rules and health screenings. Eventually they'll come in contact with it.
It went through our workplace like wildfire. One death, a dozen confirmed cases and many dozens who showed very mild symptoms. We got the yada yada protections put in place( not that they were much good, honestly) but by that time it was already going around and had infected everybody.
But to continue destroying the economy based on a fear of the inevitable is just stupid. It will continue to infect people. You won't get a vaccine in 3 months or 3 years. It will burn itself out or be around in one form or another like the flu.
Too many people talk about herd immunity while ignoring we have no heard immunity for Coronaviruses that have infected Americans for 100 years. In other words the Common Cold would not be common if we had Herd Immunity to Coronavirus strains.
Herd Immunity requires >80% exposure to the general public. We are no where near that number and are very far from it, current estimates in hard hit areas like NYC is 13.5% exposed. We can do Herd Immunity but its all about how many deaths the country can stomach and if people will go to open businesses as the deaths rise.
Too many people talk about herd immunity while ignoring we have no heard immunity for Coronaviruses that have infected Americans for 100 years. In other words the Common Cold would not be common if we had Herd Immunity to Coronavirus strains.
Herd Immunity requires >80% exposure to the general public. We are no where near that number and are very far from it, current estimates in hard hit areas like NYC is 13.5% exposed. We can do Herd Immunity but its all about how many deaths the country can stomach and if people will go to open businesses as the deaths rise.
It's also how deep a depression and how many suicides we can stomach. And how many other diseases go untreated because access to health care is effectively cut off for non-Covid patients.
Too many people talk about herd immunity while ignoring we have no heard immunity for Coronaviruses that have infected Americans for 100 years. In other words the Common Cold would not be common if we had Herd Immunity to Coronavirus strains.
Herd Immunity requires >80% exposure to the general public. We are no where near that number and are very far from it, current estimates in hard hit areas like NYC is 13.5% exposed. We can do Herd Immunity but its all about how many deaths the country can stomach and if people will go to open businesses as the deaths rise.
You don't have to be at 80% to have beneficial effects. Society doesn't go from helpless to immune in an instant. Every person with immunity/resistance is a benefit. Current estimates in NYC is over 20%.
And common cold is not a specific disease. The cold is a catch-all term for a group of systems and is caused by over 200 different viruses. That is why we don't have herd immunity for a cold. You may have antibodies and resistance for the strain you just had before but odds are extremely high that your next cold will be from one you haven't had in years if ever.
Wouldn't it be funny if they found out that all this staying at home was the worst thing you can do?
Already even Cumo had his big board showing 66% of cases were people staying at home (probably catching it when they go outdoors shopping or something).
In the middle of April when it was starting to get claustrophobic from being at home I thought "what if this was all for nothing"
all the destruction from people who orders us to act in a way when they do not know all the facts (yet are claiming "science") and had to keep changing the protocols (don't wear a mask then wear a mask);
and now scientists are saying sunlight kills the virus and fresh air outdoors disperses the droplets of virus.
If they want us to keep hiding in the bunkers till the virus is 100% gone, looks like we will be cooped up forever. IT WONT GO AWAY!!
You don't have to be at 80% to have beneficial effects. Society doesn't go from helpless to immune in an instant. Every person with immunity/resistance is a benefit. Current estimates in NYC is over 20%.
And common cold is not a specific disease. The cold is a catch-all term for a group of systems and is caused by over 200 different viruses. That is why we don't have herd immunity for a cold. You may have antibodies and resistance for the strain you just had before but odds are extremely high that your next cold will be from one you haven't had in years if ever.
I think you misunderstand and make my point all at the time. What I am getting at and you eluded to is, we have exposure to many viruses often but do not develop antibodies that are effective at preventing the disease. Therefore you have no immunity to hardly any of the "Viral strains" that effect people annually. Expecting an immediate effective antibody development from a single exposure of a novel virus is asking a hell of a lot for our bodies.
Currently people do not have immunities to RSV, Norovirus, Coronavirus 4 strains of common cold, Flu that are effective beyond a few months. Therefore there may be NO herd immunity to Covid-19. This is why the push is for a vaccine and many states are not expecting antibody testing to help much.
Also many of the antibody test are cross-reactive with Common Cold strains of Coronavirus therefore giving a "False Positive" causing someone to think they are immune when there is no immunity. The FDA went Approval crazy so now labs are going back and verifying if their test they already bought and ordered actually work.
Truth is this stuff takes longer to figure out than we have patience so everyone is grasping at straws without understanding what their grabbing on to, people are frustrated and want answers. Normally this entire process is 4-5 years so answers will take a while.
I think you misunderstand and make my point all at the time. What I am getting at and you eluded to is, we have exposure to many viruses often but do not develop antibodies that are effective at preventing the disease. Therefore you have no immunity to hardly any of the "Viral strains" that effect people annually. Expecting an immediate effective antibody development from a single exposure of a novel virus is asking a hell of a lot for our bodies.
Currently people do not have immunities to RSV, Norovirus, Coronavirus 4 strains of common cold, Flu that are effective beyond a few months. Therefore there may be NO herd immunity to Covid-19. This is why the push is for a vaccine and many states are not expecting antibody testing to help much.
I think it's you that misunderstand and make MY point. We do acquire immunity to the virus we defeated but the "diseases" you speak of - cold and flu - are caused by many different viruses. I wouldn't expect anti-bodies from Covid-19 to confer immunity/resistance to Covid-21 or Covid-24 or such. And if they didn't that would in no way show that they don't for Covid-19.
Flu shots need renewed annually and anti-bodies have short period of effectiveness because of the high rate of mutation of flu viruses. You do retain resistance against the previous strain. Covid-19 mutates at less than one-tenth the rate of flu viruses.
You think it not possible to develop effective anti-bodies from a single exposure yet isn't that how most vaccines are delivered - in a single exposure? And how exactly do you think one recovers from coronavirus? After three weeks the virus decides to just move on?
Truth is this stuff takes longer to figure out than we have patience so everyone is grasping at straws without understanding what their grabbing on to, people are frustrated and want answers. Normally this entire process is 4-5 years so answers will take a while.
No one will answer this so please do. Do we hide under our sheets that long?
NC is opening state parks and retail stores tomorrow ( at 50% capacity I think), incl. malls. Phase 1. By the time we get to hair salons, it will be mid June most likely.
NC is opening state parks and retail stores tomorrow ( at 50% capacity I think), incl. malls. Phase 1. By the time we get to hair salons, it will be mid June most likely.
I'm hoping 2 weeks go well, and the barber can open May 22-ish.
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