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Watching CNN for the Trump press conference and apparently the national strategic stockpile sent out their last round of PPE. How the Hell did we let this happen?
Frank's models seem way low to me. He already missed Ohio by good number, and Ohio is just getting going.
Whoever said NC, 30-50, VA 80-160, TX 150-250 and FL 160-300 by end of April...wow.
Here are the likely numbers, +/- 10%
NC: Has just 10 deaths right now. If they follow ALL the other places...100 by April 9th, approach 1000 by 20th.
VA: Pass 100 a week from now, 500 two weeks from now
TX: 100 by Sunday, 1000 two weeks from Sunday.
And
FL: 85 right now. 100 by tomorrow. 500 next weekend, 2000 the weekend after that.
These are real numbers, people. You don't need to be an epidemiologist - but it helps if you can understand their formulae. It's not a guess. It's a model. Same way the CDC calculates Flu deaths. They use a model. You can't trust one without the other. Believe it. It's happening. I'll stop back in a week and see how I did.
I believe and hope and pray we only stay in 20,000-
40,000 fatality range in the US. Hopefully under 15-20,000 by end of April
There is no good number, sadly.
It has only been 1 month since the first death and 60 cases. Now we are over 200k cases and 3800+ deaths. We have not peaked, however we still have far less deaths than several countries, even though we are #1! (finally #1 as HRC tweated - moron) in cases.
Even if we have not peaked, the percentage of co-mortality curve is flattening.
My hope is that this will not be worse than a bad flu year, which we are also going through (55k deaths).
Quote:
Originally Posted by roodd279
Frank's models seem way low to me. He already missed Ohio by good number, and Ohio is just getting going.
Whoever said NC, 30-50, VA 80-160, TX 150-250 and FL 160-300 by end of April...wow.
Here are the likely numbers, +/- 10%
NC: Has just 10 deaths right now. If they follow ALL the other places...100 by April 9th, approach 1000 by 20th.
VA: Pass 100 a week from now, 500 two weeks from now
TX: 100 by Sunday, 1000 two weeks from Sunday.
And
FL: 85 right now. 100 by tomorrow. 500 next weekend, 2000 the weekend after that.
These are real numbers, people. You don't need to be an epidemiologist - but it helps if you can understand their formulae. It's not a guess. It's a model. Same way the CDC calculates Flu deaths. They use a model. You can't trust one without the other. Believe it. It's happening. I'll stop back in a week and see how I did.
BS! You've decided that we will simply quadruple endlessly. THAT is rubbish!
My hope is that we have less than 10k deaths. No matter what the final outcome is, I hope every family sues the snot out of China in an international court.
Three wolves - even if it IS less than the "regular" flu - which it will not be - it would be worse than the flu, because it didn't need 5 months of flu season to do the damage, and the flu stops itself - no intervention from people. Covid19? No sign of that. If not for this intervention - overall total could be awful. Could. No one knows. It's a gamble for sure. The gov't has decided to bet your 401K against 3 million lives. No one will ever know if it paid off.
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