Time to Reopen America (enemy, generation, gun, kids)
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These predictive models are often colossally wrong, but leftists insist on their gravitas because they are used to justify their political maneuvering. When reality invariably doesn't reflect the situation the models portend, they blame the data they manipulated in the first place.
So are hurricane models and weather forecasts--that's why they're called 'projections' and 'models'. Ignore them at your peril if you'd like though. Some people REALLY seem to enjoy surprises!
In fact, since you're so convinced they're so 'colossally' wrong, go ahead and hang out in crowded places with like-minded people and let us know how that all works out for you and the others.
If the gov't playbook is a citizen lock-down during a pandemic, we need a new playbook. No one will stay home for months.
They are not staying home now! LOL
All this is going to do is force states to enact tougher restrictions, our governor has already hinted at some of the new restrictions coming in the next couple weeks.
I do not see this ending in 2 weeks time, unless something HUGE happens within that time frame, Im pretty sure they will extend the restrictions, probably until June 10th.
So are hurricane models and weather forecasts--that's why they're called 'projections' and 'models'. Ignore them at your peril if you'd like though. Some people REALLY seem to enjoy surprises!
In fact, since you're so convinced they're so 'colossally' wrong, go ahead and hang out in crowded places with like-minded people and let us know how that all works out for you and the others.
Oh, I'm not going to be stupid about it. Why would I do that? I can't control the behavior of others.
I live in a place that gets hurricane impact. When one is on the way, the weather folks update the predictions constantly when new data is present. They never address why they were wrong about original tracks in the first place. But they are wrong. Almost always.
All this is going to do is force states to enact tougher restrictions, our governor has already hinted at some of the new restrictions coming in the next couple weeks.
I do not see this ending in 2 weeks time, unless something HUGE happens within that time frame, Im pretty sure they will extend the restrictions, probably until June 10th.
I disagree. It's not going to last that long. In fact it's not going to last another month.
These predictive models are often colossally wrong, but leftists insist on their gravitas because they are used to justify their political maneuvering. When reality invariably doesn't reflect the situation the models portend, they blame the data they manipulated in the first place.
Trump is a leftist now? DeSantis?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncguy50
Oh, I'm not going to be stupid about it. Why would I do that? I can't control the behavior of others.
I live in a place that gets hurricane impact. When one is on the way, the weather folks update the predictions constantly when new data is present. They never address why they were wrong about original tracks in the first place. But they are wrong. Almost always.
They do not explain because they probably have too much faith in the US education system that it will teach people what "models" and "forecasting" is. It seems the US education system has failed many people in this.
They do not explain because they probably have too much faith in the US education system that it will teach people what "models" and "forecasting" is. It seems the US education system has failed many people in this.
LOL. You put down a couple of sentences but didn't say much. My point is that models are almost always wrong and since they can be manipulated, they should just be regarded as one possibility out of a set of many and should not be used to set climate, health, or economic policy. Making decisions on real-time data is not modeling. It seems to me YOUR education system has failed and I'll be glad to school you any day of the week.
LOL. You put down a couple of sentences but didn't say much. My point is that models are almost always wrong and since they can be manipulated, they should just be regarded as one possibility out of a set of many and should not be used to set climate, health, or economic policy. Making decisions on real-time data is not modeling. It seems to me YOUR education system has failed and I'll be glad to school you any day of the week.
They do provide many models. The original modeling for this virus the WH refers to is from a report that actually contains many models with different variables.
Models are for predicting future events, they are updated and changed to reflect new information.
Many things in the world are based upon modeling, from weather, to development, to loans. Even a CBA (cost benefit analysis) is a form of modeling.
I work with models daily, feel free to ping me for info via private messaging if you want.
"The latest FluView surveillance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that as of January 18, 2020, there have been 8200 deaths in the US this influenza season.
Granted, that was a while ago.
I can find figured from Mid-March of 16,000 and 22,000 (from CDC)...estimates, of course.
Of course, Mr. Whoopee.....you'll have to point me to all your claims of FALSE with the dozens of people on here who claimed for the last month that there were 70-80K Flu deaths this season?
What? You can't point me to your posts calling them out as "mostly false"? Is there some reason you would let them slide or didn't you see them? I'd be glad to dig around for them.....
ALL the points stand. No whatabouts.
Data, whether for Flu or CV, lags the actual real world by a LONG shot, often months. Many CV deaths will never be counted as such because they are dead and cremated and tests did not exist - and why waste them on dead people when you are short?
The bottom line is, short of a miracle, we are going to see many 10's of thousands of deaths. Of course, it's easy to make ONE prediction. No matter how many it is Trump fans will tell us he saved us....
That is perhaps the one "fact" that be agreed upon.
The very fact you were quoting flu deaths this season is evidence you were trying to mislead.
I disagree. It's not going to last that long. In fact it's not going to last another month.
Nope - it can't - and it won't. Because there are enough intelligent people among us asking to what end? Fortunately, one of those people is the President. Is the virus going to magically, suddenly disappear soon?
The longer we're locked down, the more we're crippled. And demoralized. The harder it will be and the longer it will take to ever recover. It makes no sense and never did. Not a complete lock-down. Not for this. Other motivators were in play here. The Devil has many disguises. And we've seen so many recently that more and more of us see them coming from miles away.
What do ALL of the extended lock-down zealots have in common?
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