Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
It doesn't appear to require a person be "especially unhealthy." There are troubling cases of younger persons with no identified significant health issues dying from things such as covid-19 induced blood clotting.
There are young people that die of heart attacks every week, if not every day in this country. Does that mean the typical 30 old is likely to die from one?
Yes, and this is what I think will happen. Almost everyone will eventually get it, and the trick is to get the exposure in a small dose - rather than a direct “hit” (like someone sneezing on you.) The problem is more the old folks in nursing homes and ALFs, who don’t fare well with it at all. So if half the people have been exposed to it by summer (assuming we are not stuck at home except for one hour at the grocery store per week), then the antibodies can be harvested, and used for treatments for the elderly.
Our immediate danger 6 weeks ago was a massive and sudden spike, overwhelming hospitals. Now that that is under control, limited exposure to the virus - to healthy, non-elderly people - might be a good thing.
Honestly, it might not be necessary. The entire population doesn't have to be exposed to have herd immunity. Just enough to get to the point that the average new case infects less than one other person (R0<1). Given how infectious this is, the R0 is pretty high, it's going to take a good percentage of the population to have antibodies to get there. But still, given that it's in every state, and how quickly it's spreading, that shouldn't take that long. There is speculation that Sweden is there now, and that NYC is approaching it.
I'm trying to find the article, but I recall reading that the median age of those that died from it is...85. And many of those had other health conditions and likely weren't long for this world in the first place.
There are young people that die of heart attacks every week, if not every day in this country. Does that mean the typical 30 old is likely to die from one?
They are looking at the spike of such deaths, obviously, and at the nature of the blood clots.
They are looking at the spike of such deaths, obviously, and at the nature of the blood clots.
Do you think these doctors are idiots?
Nope. Do I think most reporters, that take one or a few isolated cases and try to say that everyone is going to be impacted like that, are? Yes. To say nothing of those that believe everything they read, without looking for independant verification.
84 of the 6839 that died in this study were both less than 65 and without underlying health conditions. That works out to 1.2% of those that died. Most working age (or younger) people have very little to worry about.
Honestly, it might not be necessary. The entire population doesn't have to be exposed to have herd immunity. Just enough to get to the point that the average new case infects less than one other person (R0<1). Given how infectious this is, the R0 is pretty high, it's going to take a good percentage of the population to have antibodies to get there. But still, given that it's in every state, and how quickly it's spreading, that shouldn't take that long. There is speculation that Sweden is there now, and that NYC is approaching it.
I'm trying to find the article, but I recall reading that the median age of those that died from it is...85. And many of those had other health conditions and likely weren't long for this world in the first place.
Sweden is nowhere close (yeah, that report was retracted), and has a huge death rate compared to its neighbors. And they are in much better health, and have universal HC as opposed to the US.
NYC is at most at about 20% (if you ignore the false positive issues) which is no where near for the herd immunity. We also know how many died.
As I said, multiple countries have brought R0 well below one. Several are "done" with the virus. You might want to google how they accomplished it.
Sweden is nowhere close (yeah, that report was retracted), and has a huge death rate compared to its neighbors. And they are in much better health, and have universal HC as opposed to the US.
Also 40% of Swedes live alone, and they live separated from the elders to a far greater degree than other countries. Older Swedes to this point have been mostly successfully quarantined, and probably can be until there is a vaccine.
Yes, 1.2% with no underlying health conditions. But drawing the line at 65 is really discounting lots dead people. From age 50+ - more than half the people have one of these conditions. If COVID picked dead people at random - MOST people would have an underlying condition. It surely is a complicating factor - but it's not rare or uncommon. It means if you want to believe you, yourself, are safe, that's probably a good bet. If you're using it in general - like the media does - to say it "only kills the unhealthy" - you're referring to more than 100 million people. All of them have underlying conditions, and MOST of them are 50+ years old.
For NY - no one knows, but circumstantially - I think it's higher than 20%. Here's why: There are 30 thousand dead people in New York and New Jersey, and 30 million people live there. Although we cannot know the death rate - whatever you guess as the infection rate is ALSO your guess at the death rate. So if you think NY is 20% at the most - then you agree the death rate is 0.5% or higher. That seems to be the upper limit right now of the "official" guesses, so it's possible. If you think it's 0.1% - like some say - then you have assume 100% of NY is infected, and that's not true (too many negative tests - that's also why it's so easy to discount that data from Santa Clara). So it's something between 0.1% and 0.5%.
But staying in lockdown, and ruining the economy, won’t get us out of this either. People who stay hidden in their homes, avoiding exposure to not only this virus but other bacterial or viral invaders, will eventually emerge, and get infected. The vast majority won’t even know about it, or have mild symptoms, and only a tiny fraction will get severely ill. It either happens now, while the economy still has a chance at a slow recovery, or later, when the economy is beyond saving and the progressives race in with their socialist-saving programs. (Newsome came right out and said it.)
Staying indoors for a year or more until a treatment is found that meets with the Dems approval will disable Americans in more ways than one.
(And this trick the liberal governors are playing by claiming states can’t open because cases aren’t going downhill is beyond transparent. They are testing more, so more cases.)
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
