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We have 5 long months till election day, and a lot can happen. They have been predicting a second round of the virus in the fall, and that looks very likely now, given that people have relaxed all their precautions and are acting recklessly as if it never happened.
So, come November I bet we are seeing a huge increase in deaths and infections, which should impact Trump's chances.
If we have a huge increase, it will because we’ve had crowds of as many as 20,000 in every major city in the country, and with leftist mayors and governors not only defending the behavior of the peaceful protestors, but allowing masses of thieves to break into stores and carry out all the loot their could.
It was just 9 days ago that the governor of my state, in consult with the liberal officials area, finally allowed us to move into Phase 1, which demands social distancing, masks, no indoor dining, all sorts of restrictions. Yet at the same time, leftist leaders were making excuses for criminals gathering en masse.
If we have a huge increase, it will because we’ve had crowds of as many as 20,000 in every major city in the country, and with leftist mayors and governors not only defending the behavior of the peaceful protestors, but allowing masses of thieves to break into stores and carry out all the loot their could.
It was just 9 days ago that the governor of my state, in consult with the liberal officials area, finally allowed us to move into Phase 1, which demands social distancing, masks, no indoor dining, all sorts of restrictions. Yet at the same time, leftist leaders were making excuses for criminals gathering en masse.
Shows not only the hypocrisy of the Democrats and Media, but that the Virus response was largely a SCAM and way to crash the economy. You can't conduct normal business, but it is OK to protest, riot, loot, burn and be in large crowds with no precautions.
If the economy makes a huge rebound in the next 5 months, I think Trump will be re-elected. With things reopening and the stock market rebounding, we are on an upward road. Does that make Democrats worried?
The economy coming back does not worry me. The idea that everyone will forget Trump's failures, his assault on American values, his absolute FAILURE in addressing COVID, and his dispicable fanning of the race flames during the Floyd crisis is what has me worried.
If people remember who Trump REALLY is, then the economy won't save him.
My retirement depends on a good economy, I want a good economy. I will never wish against that, EVER. But it does worry me that voters have a short memory, and if they are comfy, they may not come out on voting day. I know this, if the election was today (and Trump didn't restrict too many voters), he'd be out.
I hope we are at $35k on the DJIA, and at full employment, and I hope the American people show up in unprecidented numbers to vote him out. I hope the economy is BOOMING, so there is no confusion as to why he is soundly beaten.
I don't think that is a foregone conclusion, but since you asked, THAT is my hope.
If the economy makes a huge rebound in the next 5 months, ...
I have always thought that Trump placed too much emphasis on the economy. It could possibly be worth a couple of points in some areas, but for the most part people had already made up their own minds about Trump.
By pinning so much of his hopes on the economy, Trump was basically admitting he had nothing else to run on.
That was the only thing Trump had in his favor, the one and only thing, but the economy was booming before he took office and most people realize that. So it wasn't that Trump built a strong economy, it was that some of his policies might have prolonged the boom, like his tax breaks for the rich and foreign globalist corporations, that sort of thing. But those policies put us in a bad place, we had no reserve resources left after running huge deficits. No more tricks in the bag, so to say, and people knew that. People were becoming aware that these deficits are threatening their Social Security and Medicare, threatening the ecology, threatening even the Pentagon budget. Trump was ok with that.
"You all just got a lot richer"
Donald J Trump
He wasn't talking to you and I.
Each succeeding year of that very long boom (ten years!) was going to make it harder to sustain. If we had had a downturn in 2017 or 2018 we would already be in recovery mode right now, and Trump supporters would be claiming that he is an economic genius
In other words, Trump (and his campaign) were placing far too much hope on the 'long in the tooth' economy pulling them through to victory. It was never going to be like that.
Now, placing hopes on a unique 'once in a thousand years' super-booming recovery is a fool's errand. But that's all he's got to work with.
They are definitely concerned about the growing possibility that they will have to get a job and support themselves again. It's about the worst outcome imaginable for democrats.
I hate to burst your little snot bubble but it`s the GOP`s base who`s getting most of the free stuff.
So that means you can never blame the economy tanking on him ever again.
The following is not directed at you as your thread is asking a different question. But to the general question you ask above:
One of the great enduring stupidities of political ideologues (of any stripe) in the USA is the belief that the state of the U.S. economy at any given moment is a reflection of the intelligence and wisdom of the chief executive of the federal government and a result of the excellence or insufficiency of his/her administration
The belief that GDP growth or this month’s jobs report provides a meaningful judgment on the performance of the president isn’t economics it is superstition. It is the modern version of the ancient belief that a crop failure means that the king has displeased the rain god or the wheat goddess.
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