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Lol. Let me repeat what we currently have is not representative sample of the population. It is a strongly biased sample.
You should be asking why we aren't testing a representative sample. The current sample set is not completely representative but much more representative than a month ago when they were only testing those symptomatic.
While I’m completely in support of you living your best life, and while I have no comment on how you feel this pandemic has affected you personally, I can definitively say I cannot support someone living their best life while putting other people’s health in jeopardy.
There is a balance, of course. But the epidemiological data is quite convincing that reopening has not worked out for Florida from a public health perspective and more stringent measures are required to safeguard the health of its residents. This is true whether you have been personally affected by coronavirus or not.
I'm putting no one's life at risk. You don't want Corona - you stay home, you wear a mask, you wear gloves or wash your hands. You won't get it then. Take responsibility for your own health. What are we going to do? Ban sex because some people catch STDs? It's the same stupid logic.
How about deductive math? With ten million cases we'd have thousands of examples of people being re-infected yet all we have are a few cases here and there, all of which are questionable if it was an external or internal re-infection. If getting it and recovering does not confer immunity there should be ample evidence to prove that. The lack of such evidence suggests the case is otherwise.
These antibodies can defeat the virus. We know this by the fact that 98-99% survive and recover without any effective drug therapy.
Nobody knows if immunity/resistance lasts 6 months or 12 months or 5 years. I clearly said it was my speculation that a vaccine will last 4-5 years.
Hmm, the lack of evidence is not evidence, however. It stands to reason that during the post-recovery period, those who have been infected and recovered modified their personal behaviors to limit exposure. In conjunction with social distancing policies, the combination would further limit re-infection during this brief period of observation. Thus, absence of re-infection at this very early stage informs very little about post-infection immunity, and that’s not accounting viral mutations as it courses through the population.
Certainly we are able to fight off the virus through some mechanism of immunity. But the question isn’t whether we can fight it off. The critical questions are:
1. What are the markers of immunity we can test?
2. Is post-infection immunity durable?
You speak a lot about herd immunity. But to craft sensible and practical policies on reopening, a robust system of testing for individual immunity to the virus is important because the herd has to have durable immunity and in sufficient numbers in order to protect. What you are telling me is that A) you don’t have direct evidence of durable post-infection immunity at this time and B) you don’t have information on specific markers to test that will inform health professionals on the immunity status of the individual. Moreover, I have given you specific examples of 3 common human coronavirus strains where reinfection is known and documented to occur.
While I understand you have a right to speculate, your speculation seems to be informed more by wishful deductive reasoning than by best evidence. Making policy based on flimsy, wishful speculation is exactly how Florida and Texas ended up where they are today.
There is still so much the experts don’t know about this new pathogen. Honestly, I can’t say I’m surprised about Texas and Florida. They were warned and their policymakers risked the lives of their residents on politically motivated policy decisions rather than public good. These surges will only undermine consumer confidence in those states, and in the end, cost their economy more.
So you admit no one knows anything then blame politicians for not knowing anything?
Are we suppose to just shutdown the economy forever? You can stay hiding in your basement indefinitely, I’m low risk with no one else in my household, so I’m going out.
Hmm, the lack of evidence is not evidence, however.
Lack of evidence when there should be evidence is used all the time in scientific research. But anyway, if there is no acquired immunity and vaccines don't provide such immunity, what do you suggest? We can't remain closed down and print magic money forever. We'll just have to resume normal living and dal with the consequences, just as we currently do with cancer and other diseases.
Lack of evidence when there should be evidence is used all the time in scientific research. But anyway, if there is no acquired immunity and vaccines don't provide such immunity, what do you suggest? We can't remain closed down and print magic money forever. We'll just have to resume normal living and dal with the consequences, just as we currently do with cancer and other diseases.
The lack of evidence as “evidence” by deduction may be supportive in the right context. Using the lack of evidence as “evidence” is inappropriate at this very preliminary, early stage. As I said, if I had been diagnosed with coronavirus and recovered from it in, say, March, I most certainly would NOT be volunteering in a hospital COVID ward walking around without protection to see if I am immune to reinfection. I would not go to large gatherings where people are not wearing masks. I would not be touching my face before washing my hands thoroughly. Quite the opposite. I would follow social distancing guidelines and limit my re-exposure to the virus. The fact that I don’t have evidence of re-infection now isn’t meaningful evidence of post-infection immunity.
Cautious steps as NY has done seem to be sensible. Wearing masks, hygiene, social distancing, crowd size controls, all seem sensible. Unfortunately, those measures were not in place or adhered to in FL and TX. Again, not surprised. Now their local economies are going to hurt even more.
The lack of evidence as “evidence” by deduction may be supportive in the right context. Using the lack of evidence as “evidence” is inappropriate at this very preliminary, early stage. As I said, if I had been diagnosed with coronavirus and recovered from it in March, I most certainly would NOT be volunteering in a hospital COVID ward walking around without protection to see if I am immune to reinfection. I would not go to large gatherings where people are not wearing masks. I would not be touching my face before washing my hands thoroughly. Quite the opposite. I would follow social distancing guidelines and limit my re-exposure to the virus. So to say that if I don’t have evidence of re-infection now would not be meaningful evidence of post-infection immunity.
Cautious steps as NY has done seem to be sensible. Wearing masks, hygiene, social distancing, crowd size controls, all seem sensible. Unfortunately, those measures were not in place or adhered to in FL and TX. Again, not surprised. Now their local economies are going to hurt even more.
You're confusing proof with evidence. I didn't say the lack of re-infections proved immunity but statistics and probability suggest that if there was no immunity then we would be seeing large-scale reinfection. Even if you would be more careful, the sheer numbers would yield a large numbers - even if small percentages - that were not or could not avoid exposure. If you recovered, are you going to isolate and have no human contact? Your family member coming over to see you could be an exposure.
These states are seeing increases in "cases" not really deaths. And these states are and will be much better off economically for having re-opened. Those northern states have only begun to re-open so it's far too soon to say how people are complying or if they are going to have any better results.
You're confusing proof with evidence. I didn't say the lack of re-infections proved immunity but statistics and probability suggest that if there was no immunity then we would be seeing large-scale reinfection. Even if you would be more careful, the sheer numbers would yield a large numbers - even if small percentages - that were not or could not avoid exposure. If you recovered, are you going to isolate and have no human contact? Your family member coming over to see you could be an exposure.
These states are seeing increases in "cases" not really deaths. And these states are and will be much better off economically for having re-opened. Those northern states have only begun to re-open so it's far too soon to say how people are complying or if they are going to have any better results.
They’re probably just postponing the inevitable. Idiots but if they want to destroy their economy they can.
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