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Case numbers lag the exposure date and deaths lag case diagnosis.
You have around a two week lag between exposure and diagnosis and another substantial and highly variable lag between diagnosis and death. Thus the case growth you see now is a result of actions from a few weeks ago, and the death rate you see now is a result of cases that originated a month or more in the past.
This is important to understand because otherwise you will not have a grasp on the actual causality chain leading to deaths from covid.
Also I would not expect an increase in deaths for 4-6 weeks from the start of increased case numbers given these are younger people. From the under 40 patients I have managed I usually see:
1) Symptom 4-6 days post exposure
2) Mild to moderate symptoms X4-7 days
3) A repreive of symptoms for 1-2 days (this is where you either improve and clear or move to 4)
4) Acute exacerbation of symptoms leading to hospitalization
5) ICU care 2-5 days
6) If death occurs it is usually after 1-2 week of hospitalization at during step 5
That is approximately from exposure (if the person knows when) or onset of symptoms 4-6 weeks, again what I see on the ground. We have about another 1-2 weeks before I would safely say there is no increase in deaths post reopening in states like Florida.
This is an Apolitical look, I have no idea what party affiliation my patients have, nor would I care.
Using the worldometers numbers that everyone seems to think are acceptable...
The mortality rate based on that is relatively unchanged from April. It is still at around 5.3% globally and nationally. You can say what you want, but it isn't backed up by the actual figures yet. If more tests equated to a lower mortality rate, why isn't it further down? And if further down IS 5%, that's still a serious problem.
If coronavirus took out 1% of everyone, regardless of age or other physical health issues, we'd all be staying home still.
Also, you can't compute the death rate until the case is closed. Over half of US cases don't have an outcome yet. If you look on worldometer, you see that of the roughly 1 million cases that are closed, 12% resulted in death. Click on "graph" and you will see that rate has been going down, but it's still a lot more than 5.3%.
Also I would not expect an increase in deaths for 4-6 weeks from the start of increased case numbers given these are younger people. From the under 40 patients I have managed I usually see:
1) Symptom 4-6 days post exposure
2) Mild to moderate symptoms X4-7 days
3) A repreive of symptoms for 1-2 days (this is where you either improve and clear or move to 4)
4) Acute exacerbation of symptoms leading to hospitalization
5) ICU care 2-5 days
6) If death occurs it is usually after 1-2 week of hospitalization at during step 5
That is approximately from exposure (if the person knows when) or onset of symptoms 4-6 weeks, again what I see on the ground. We have about another 1-2 weeks before I would safely say there is no increase in deaths post reopening in states like Florida.
This is an Apolitical look, I have no idea what party affiliation my patients have, nor would I care.
Bingo. The point I was trying to make but with the actual numbers I didn't know filled in.
So the death rate now would be a result of whatever actions we were taking between 1 and 2 months ago.
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Interesting article from today. Suggests Texas is not experiencing a "second wave", but rather, the exact pattern of flattening the curve that was designed originally, back in March, to prevent hospital over crowding.
This was the intent. To have more and more hospitalizations/infections stretching through Septemberish, so they don't arrive all at the same time.
It does seem few people understood the goal of flattening the curve included dragging the curve out for months and months.
So that begs the political question, is the media intentonally reporting the rise in cases while hiding the reduction in deaths, so as to scare people into supporting continued closures and shut-downs?
I watch NBC news on occasion, and they have reported that some areas are going up, while others are going down. I think they said around 22 states are increasing, and they also reported that around 20 are decreaseing, this is # of cases though. Just to say that it seem to me they are reporting the facts, if you are scared by them, then that is on you. Facts are facts.
They have made a point to mention that NYC has been doing much better, and since NYC was responsible for the largest number of deaths, of course the National numbers are declining, but also other areas are increasing.
One last point, it was predicted that the spike in more rural areas would come later, due to densities of people. THat seems to be playing out too.
So to answer your OP question:
Nationally numbers are on the decrease
Locally, it's a mixed bag, with some areas increasing and others decreasing
I honestly think people (ALL people) see what they want to see in reporting. It really does seem to me that the limited network news I've seen, maybe once or twice a week, has been fairly accurate with regards to this topic. Others, not so much maybe, but we are only talking about COVID cases and deaths in this thread.
I am not offering an article on the topic. I am asking the question because I can find all manner of sources regarding cases, but not regarding deaths.
If anybody has a source to state-by-state Covid death rates and trends over the past week or 2, I would sincerly appreciate it.
For example, here is a great resource from NPR that shows state-by-state rates of increasing and decreaing rates of Covid infection cases.
We were told the entire reason for the lock downs, business closures, masks, and social distancing are to reduce deaths. I mean, if this was a mild flu bug, we woud be treating it like one and not taking all these extreme measures. The reason for going to such extremes was supposed to be to prevent 2.2 million deaths or some such estimate of deaths.
So where are the corresponding sources for US death trends and state-by-state death trends to the above infection trends? Is it possible that deaths are going down even as cases are going up, and the powers that be just don't want us to know about it, because rising infection rates serves to scare us into wanting to keep things shut down, while falling death rates would encourage us to want to open things up?
I dont know. I am just wondering.
I appreciate any help in advance.
Thank you.
They know better how to treat it now. So more people are surviving.
There's also the question whether the virus is now weakening and the viral load is meaningful.
Possibly a lot more people would've been hospitalized or died by not locking down since the strain in New York was the most dangerous.
This is not a second wave. Locking down spread out the first or only wave.
There is something remarkable going on regarding the number of Covid-19 deaths in the US:
Back in March, people were saying that we're making a mountain out of a molehill, this is no worse than the flu. Of course at that time there were only a few hundred deaths. Now we are at 120,000 dead, far more than any flu. But instead of being shocked, my sense is that Americans are pretty much accepting of this number. Worldometer predicts 200,000 dead by October, and I have every reason to believe that. If I said on March 1 that we would have 200,000 dead in 6 months, people would either be alarmed or call me a liar. Now its like "meh".
There is something remarkable going on regarding the number of Covid-19 deaths in the US:
Back in March, people were saying that we're making a mountain out of a molehill, this is no worse than the flu. Of course at that time there were only a few hundred deaths. Now we are at 120,000 dead, far more than any flu. But instead of being shocked, my sense is that Americans are pretty much accepting of this number. Worldometer predicts 200,000 dead by October, and I have every reason to believe that. If I said on March 1 that we would have 200,000 dead in 6 months, people would either be alarmed or call me a liar. Now its like "meh".
Not judging, just sayin'
Because shutting down the economy again is not happening. No matter how much liberals want itb
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