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The population estimate is 21,477,737
So the cases are 4.2% of the population, this is miles away from herd immunity
which is estimated to be 70%. A vaccine can lead to herd immunity but that is not here yet, that seems to be 5 months away for the average person
However some researchers think 30-40% would drastically reduce the dynamic.
So if you apply 30% to the Florida population 21,477,737 x 30% it equals 6.4 million cases
7,925 new cases were reported in Florida on Nov. 18 and 87 new coronavirus deaths
That's about 1% death.
First, taking out the number of cases already recorded from that 6.4 million, - 905,248 (old cases)
we get 5,538,073, there would have to be about 5.5 million new cases to get to 30%
then apply the death rate and it's 60,796 more new deaths to get to 30%
or if herd immunity had to be 60% say, they are not sure, twice that 121,593 new deaths
This assumes hospitals could handle a much faster spread a much faster influx of new cases per day in a herd immunity scenario where hypothetically nobody wears a mask and there are no restrictions on businesses.
So my question is, is Governor Ron DeSantis wise or stupid?
he is a trumppette bootlicker and blood is on his hands. -
Herd immunity would happen sooner or later without a vaccine. With lockdowns, people still get infected but at a slower rate. Eventually it would catch up with everyone unless they never leave the house, never have contact with other people and continuously sterilize everything that comes in . It might take 5-6 years instead of 2 or 3 but herd immunity would eventually happen or the virus would eventually mutate to a form where it no longer kills people or makes them sick.
This is how humans have survived all viruses for hundreds of thousands of years and not become extinct due to illness.
Careful you don't hurt yourself flopping onto your fainting couch.
You posted fake data and then slung personal attacks at me for posting factual data.
Quote:
There has been little correlation between lockdowns and the rate of spread of the virus. The current numbers lay that fact bare. Declining to implement ineffectual measures that cause their own harms is not the same as ignoring it, any more than not firing a shotgun at a tornado is the same as ignoring it.
You can drag the goal posts all over the place, but the question was whether or not DeSantis is stupid believing in herd immunity. The current numbers prove he was/is stupid, since Florida is nowhere near herd immunity.
Herd immunity is a myth. If it worked, we would not need vaccines for polio, smallpox measles &c.
You do realize that vaccines are a recent invention, and that for millennia the human race survived new viruses only due to herd immunity, right? And that vaccines are no more or less than a tool to reach herd immunity, in a somewhat controlled manner?
Herd immunity would happen sooner or later without a vaccine. With lockdowns, people still get infected but at a slower rate. Eventually it would catch up with everyone unless they never leave the house, never have contact with other people and continuously sterilize everything that comes in . It might take 5-6 years instead of 2 or 3 but herd immunity would eventually happen or the virus would eventually mutate to a form where it no longer kills people or makes them sick.
This is how humans have survived all viruses for hundreds of thousands of years and not become extinct due to illness.
Exactly. No one that understands even basic science expects "lockdowns" to stop the virus. As stated 9 months ago, at best they slow the spread and "flatten the curve" to avoid overloading hospitals.
Last edited by Toyman at Jewel Lake; 12-02-2020 at 09:31 AM..
You do realize that vaccines are a recent invention, and that for millennia the human race survived new viruses only due to herd immunity, right?
The problem is that in many cases it took hundreds of years to develop herd immunity, or even partial immunity, which is why the South and North American natives died in their millions as soon as the Europeans arrived with their viruses.
Last edited by Finn_Jarber; 12-02-2020 at 08:48 AM..
You do realize that vaccines are a recent invention, and that for millennia the human race survived new viruses only due to herd immunity, right? And that vaccines are no more or less than a tool to reach herd immunity, in a somewhat controlled manner?
Actually, a herd immunity has never been reached without a vaccine. If nothing else people who gained immunity eventually pass away, and new people with no immunity are born. That's why measles which is highly infectious (much more so than the corona virus) has been always around, and only comprehensive vaccination effort brought it under control. Even so, while it is declared eliminated in the US, the outbreaks do occur due to the ... (I'll skip the word that comes to mind).
Smallpox has killed hundreds of millions over the course of history, and it took a worldwide vaccination program to eradicate it.
You posted fake data and then slung personal attacks at me for posting factual data.
Sorry, you don't get to wave away data as "fake" just because you don't like what it says. If the CDC data is fake you better let them know, and be sure to provide your own data and sources. I'm sure they'll be incredibly grateful for your hard work.
In the meantime, I'll assume most here consider the CDC to be relatively authoritative and post their numbers below for all to see. (Apologies for the tiny text -- I had to zoom all the way out to 50% just to get Florida to fit in the screen cap.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber
You can drag the goal posts all over the place, but the question was whether or not DeSantis is stupid believing in herd immunity. The current numbers prove he was/is stupid, since Florida is nowhere near herd immunity.
No it doesn't.
For starters, I'd like to see evidence DeSantis has stated he is pursuing a policy of herd immunity. For another, declining to implement a largely ineffectual policy is not the same as pursuing a "herd immunity" approach any more than not firing buckshot at an approaching tornado is the same as pursuing a "tornado immunity" policy. Finally, if DeSantis' policies are a "herd immunity" approach either by design or by accident, then it appears to be working if Florida's current rate of infection well below the national average is any indication.
Governor Ron DeSantis seems to believe in Herd Immunity for Florida ...
The concept of herd immunity is not proven for this disease. It is irresponsible to base public policy on it, at least until there is better information available.
For the governor of a large state it is very unwise to gamble with people's lives.
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