Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Do you really think 330 million people are more powerful than 1442 million people? They outnumber us by over 4 to 1, the same ration by which the USA outnumbers Germany. So even with tech a little behind ours, the USA will no longer be #1. We just have to learn how to deal with that fact.
Where are those 1442 million people going to march? They don't have the navy to pull off a massive amphibious invasion of Taiwan or anywhere else. They can't march across the Himalayas to India. The logistics for that would be a nightmare. They certainly aren't going to be marching into Russia. They are cozy with the Russians right now, but cross the Amur River and the Russians have already told them the nukes would come raining down on them. Vietnam? They tried that in 1979. If anything, the Vietnamese military has gotten better.
The Chinese literally have nowhere to project their power. Their demographics are terminal. And they are extraordinarily dependent on the world for energy, manufacturing inputs, fertilizer, agricultural imports, and everything else under the sun.
A railgun can hit a target 124 miles away. The problem with that is that, if it ever came to that, the Chinese will be engaging Japanese and American naval forces from a much longer distance. When is the last time there has been an actual fleet engagement in naval warfare? The Battle of Leyte Gulf?
There haven't been many conflicts between folks with fleets lately. Really the most recent ones I can think of is the falklands. But a railgun? Cheap to fire, lots of rounds, and could potentially be used as a long range missile defense system. Even guided rounds are very doable.
Joseph Trevithick of The War Zone puts it this way "If the PLAN’s fleets actually include any significant number of railgun-equipped ships by 2025, It is even more likely that the era of near total United States naval supremacy in any prospective conflict, especially in Pacific Region, will have come to a close."
Ive seen Chinese manufacturing of military components for themselves in person. It matched the quality you would see here in the US. And that was over a decade ago. And lets look at where this battleground will occur. In their back yard. Theyre going to truly be able to fight us on fairly even terms, and with the long supply chain possibly even better then that. This would be nasty for everyone involved.
Quote:
However, it's worth noting that the Chinese have zero experience in large fleet operations. While everyone points to the number of Chinese naval vessels, they don't realize that only 50 of them have a cruising range of more than 1,000 miles. Their sole aircraft carrier is a converted floating casino and is essentially the size of an American jump carrier. And their anti-submarine warfare capability is markedly inferior.
I agree on the fleet combat experience....but...neither do we at this point really either. Just like them all we've done is wargames and cold war interaction sort of things. They have almost the same number of submarines. And despite the short range of some of them, other then that they're pretty capable. And I think they will manage to keep risk averse American carriers fart enough out to make them far less useful.
Quote:
The Chinese navy is not a blue water navy by any stretch of the imagination, certainly nowhere close to being able to a) defend its energy lifeline of 7,000 miles and b) achieve a sustained operation against Taiwan. And it never will be.
They dont have to be a bluewater navy like our side is. They're going to fight in their backyard. They wont attempt to defend their lifeline that far. They will simply focus on their backyard with a much easier to defend lifeline. And they're going to smash ours if they can.
Were going to shoot down their satellite, there going to shoot ours. The hacking from both sides will be far more effective then anyone planned for. Stuff will go down. And faster then you might expect.
One problem in the end I think is that neither side can actually take the other, we can only harm each other. But theres no way we could take land, nor vice versa. This will be like nothing before.
Quote:
Truthfully, the Japanese navy would make short work of the Chinese, let alone the Americans. Heck, the Indian Navy would shut down the Chinese lifeline. Even the Indonesians.
There haven't been many conflicts between folks with fleets lately. Really the most recent ones I can think of is the falklands. But a railgun? Cheap to fire, lots of rounds, and could potentially be used as a long range missile defense system. Even guided rounds are very doable.
Joseph Trevithick of The War Zone puts it this way "If the PLAN’s fleets actually include any significant number of railgun-equipped ships by 2025, It is even more likely that the era of near total United States naval supremacy in any prospective conflict, especially in Pacific Region, will have come to a close."
Ive seen Chinese manufacturing of military components for themselves in person. It matched the quality you would see here in the US. And that was over a decade ago. And lets look at where this battleground will occur. In their back yard. Theyre going to truly be able to fight us on fairly even terms, and with the long supply chain possibly even better then that. This would be nasty for everyone involved.
I agree on the fleet combat experience....but...neither do we at this point really either. Just like them all we've done is wargames and cold war interaction sort of things. They have almost the same number of submarines. And despite the short range of some of them, other then that they're pretty capable. And I think they will manage to keep risk averse American carriers fart enough out to make them far less useful.
They dont have to be a bluewater navy like our side is. They're going to fight in their backyard. They wont attempt to defend their lifeline that far. They will simply focus on their backyard with a much easier to defend lifeline. And they're going to smash ours if they can.
Were going to shoot down their satellite, there going to shoot ours. The hacking from both sides will be far more effective then anyone planned for. Stuff will go down. And faster then you might expect.
One problem in the end I think is that neither side can actually take the other, we can only harm each other. But theres no way we could take land, nor vice versa. This will be like nothing before.
Where are those 1442 million people going to march? They don't have the navy to pull off a massive amphibious invasion of Taiwan or anywhere else. They can't march across the Himalayas to India. The logistics for that would be a nightmare. They certainly aren't going to be marching into Russia. They are cozy with the Russians right now, but cross the Amur River and the Russians have already told them the nukes would come raining down on them. Vietnam? They tried that in 1979. If anything, the Vietnamese military has gotten better.
I dunno. They seem to be acting like they think they have the ability too. And I think I sort see a possible play. Russias also moving troops and armor up to the Ukrainian border. What if they both have agreed to go for it? At the same time Russia goes for Ukraine, China goes for Taiwan?
Russia crushes Ukraine unless we get involved, But The China vs Taiwan scenario? Will we defend them? I dont think we can handle both at the same time. And thats the choice. If we defend neither, Ukraine goes down. And Taiwan? The Chinese really think they have this if they want it. And the optimum time for this is April or....October I think?
Quote:
The Chinese literally have nowhere to project their power.
Theyre putting a pretty serious claim on some islands., and vastly expanding their reach and resources.
Quote:
Their demographics are terminal.
A big war, and lots of death and sacrifice might change this.
Quote:
And they are extraordinarily dependent on the world for energy, manufacturing inputs, fertilizer, agricultural imports, and everything else under the sun.
Theyre taking back their own country from the rebels. I bet they manage to keep most countries out of it. Especially as they're going to do this as fast as possible, and with the maximum level of violence. A level of violence that will frighten folks.
But....its hard to say who would win. If we help Taiwan they can absolutely keep the Chinese out. But were gonna kill a ton of them in the water. It could be that China believes we might not get involved soon enough to stop them. Its gonna be ugly.
Or maybe all this posturing and troop movements by Russia and China are nothing.
I dunno. They seem to be acting like they think they have the ability too. And I think I sort see a possible play. Russias also moving troops and armor up to the Ukrainian border. What if they both have agreed to go for it? At the same time Russia goes for Ukraine, China goes for Taiwan?
Russia crushes Ukraine unless we get involved, But The China vs Taiwan scenario? Will we defend them? I dont think we can handle both at the same time. And thats the choice. If we defend neither, Ukraine goes down. And Taiwan? The Chinese really think they have this if they want it. And the optimum time for this is April or....October I think?
Theyre putting a pretty serious claim on some islands., and vastly expanding their reach and resources.
A big war, and lots of death and sacrifice might change this.
Theyre taking back their own country from the rebels. I bet they manage to keep most countries out of it. Especially as they're going to do this as fast as possible, and with the maximum level of violence. A level of violence that will frighten folks.
But....its hard to say who would win. If we help Taiwan they can absolutely keep the Chinese out. But were gonna kill a ton of them in the water. It could be that China believes we might not get involved soon enough to stop them. Its gonna be ugly.
Or maybe all this posturing and troop movements by Russia and China are nothing.
China really cares far less about Taiwan than so many Americans obsess about. We have a lot of family in and from Asia and it's just hilarious how much the news media goes on and on about Taiwan, while people in Taiwan and China mostly couldn't care less. About all they care about doing business with each other, and both consider each other to be branches of the Chinese community-- they speak Mandarin in Taiwan-- even if they've had their differences. China sees no need and has even less interest for any military stupidity in Taiwan because the trade relationships there are getting so strong they're best for both sides. The China-Taiwan obsession is more about American neocons projecting their own power fantasies on a region and culture that sees things totally different.
China really cares far less about Taiwan than so many Americans obsess about. We have a lot of family in and from Asia and it's just hilarious how much the news media goes on and on about Taiwan, while people in Taiwan and China mostly couldn't care less. About all they care about doing business with each other, and both consider each other to be branches of the Chinese community-- they speak Mandarin in Taiwan-- even if they've had their differences. China sees no need and has even less interest for any military stupidity in Taiwan because the trade relationships there are getting so strong they're best for both sides. The China-Taiwan obsession is more about American neocons projecting their own power fantasies on a region and culture that sees things totally different.
Actually, it is Xi's personal life time goal, just as Silk Road.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
