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A working-age population that will decline by 250,000,000 by 2050, making it the most rapidly-aging country in the world.
Debt-GDP ratio of 317% and soaring.
Gaudy growth numbers that are bogus, based on inventory builds by SOEs rather than actual profitability.
85% of its energy is loaded onto tankers in the Middle East and sails 7,000 through seas with multiple choke points.
40% of its manufacturing and exports is for foreign companies that could literally move operations tomorrow. As compared to Japan where the number is closer to 1%.
Labor costs that have increased 11x since 2000, now far in excess of Southeast Asia manufacturing economies. And that's after pretty much driving the interior population of the country into the cities. There's very little in the way of new labor resources to tap.
No allies, unless you count North Korea. Even Russia is a matter of convenience.
Extraordinary malinvestment, best typified by the fact that literally 30% of its housing units will never be occupied.
A torrent of capital flight.
A military that is nothing more than a glorified security force.
China hit its peak in 2015. It's about 10-15 years from being a failed state. The United States, Japan, Indonesia, Australia, or India could bring China to its knees by doing nothing more than blocking the stream of supertankers sailing to the South China Sea.
They may be poised to take over most of the planet within a decade if they really wanted too. Other nations besides russia and the US are pacifists and being taken over be idealists versus realists. Once the left dismantles all our nukes....then it will happen.
Our military...I don't think it's prepared to take on a large enemy.
War is good for the banksters. It will happen. You will see. We'll see if these great reset elites can control china or not.... If china can take them out...well maybe it's for the best. Maybe not. I'm no fan of china, but I do understand the laws of nature.
Actually, it is Xi's personal life time goal, just as Silk Road.
It really isn't, he just doesn't care. Again this is American neocons projecting on China, do you think Xi and China would want to bear the enormous costs of a massive and fruitless war waging an attack on a small island populated by fellow ethnic Chinese people? Xi has much grander plans than that, trans-continental and global. The Silk Road is very different because it means extending trade links into Asia and Europe, that's in line with Xi's thinking. With Taiwan China doesn't need to do anything, just wait things out and let their ties get closer as trade increases. This is how China's done things for thousands of years, wait things out and avoid the cost of war. Not trying to knock on them but if there's one thing I've noticed about Chinese people, they really really like to make money and gain material comfort. Not necessary in a greed filled money at all costs kind of way, they can certainly be generous but they like to make money and not spend money on stupid things. And wars in general are stupid stupid things that cost a lot and give little gain, so the Chinese in general just don't care much for them. Besides China has a lot of soft power right now with the USA coming off as the aggressor and inspiring a lot of world hatred for the Iraq war and those disasters we had in Libya and Syria. China gets a lot more support by avoiding that.
It really isn't, he just doesn't care. Again this is American neocons projecting on China, do you think Xi and China would want to bear the enormous costs of a massive and fruitless war waging an attack on a small island populated by fellow ethnic Chinese people? Xi has much grander plans than that, trans-continental and global. The Silk Road is very different because it means extending trade links into Asia and Europe, that's in line with Xi's thinking. With Taiwan China doesn't need to do anything, just wait things out and let their ties get closer as trade increases. This is how China's done things for thousands of years, wait things out and avoid the cost of war. Not trying to knock on them but if there's one thing I've noticed about Chinese people, they really really like to make money and gain material comfort. Not necessary in a greed filled money at all costs kind of way, they can certainly be generous but they like to make money and not spend money on stupid things. And wars in general are stupid stupid things that cost a lot and give little gain, so the Chinese in general just don't care much for them. Besides China has a lot of soft power right now with the USA coming off as the aggressor and inspiring a lot of world hatred for the Iraq war and those disasters we had in Libya and Syria. China gets a lot more support by avoiding that.
All maps of China in China draws places like Hong Kong and Taiwan on the map as part of China. Also Taiwan is a sovereign nation that get's zero national recognition in international organizations due to Chinese influence. Trump was the first person to directly call and congratulate the Taiwanese president and congratulate them on their victory in 38 years. The pressure on Taiwan has only grown, as various organizations refuse to say their an independent country.
First of all, much like Hong Kong if Taiwan was reintegrated into China it would be the wealthiest and most developed province outside Hong Kong. It's akin to adding another Beijing or Shanghai, similar sized population, with a similar sized economy, and already developed past Beijing and Shanghai.
We watched Ariel China on the Smithsonian channel last year. Now I am sure their gov't scrubbed and monitored whatever was shown, but looking at that you would think China is surely the world's superpower. On one segment, it showed a young successful lead engineer for the shipyard that was making Costco ships. It made me wonder why this is being done there and not here. Here was this young very successful man and his team and all people interviewed were incredibly articulate. Also shown were all the speed rails, engineering marvels and feats, families enjoying activities. It impacted me to the extent I told my boss that to view that would make you realize how very advanced their technology is.
It really isn't, he just doesn't care. Again this is American neocons projecting on China, do you think Xi and China would want to bear the enormous costs of a massive and fruitless war waging an attack on a small island populated by fellow ethnic Chinese people? Xi has much grander plans than that, trans-continental and global. The Silk Road is very different because it means extending trade links into Asia and Europe, that's in line with Xi's thinking. With Taiwan China doesn't need to do anything, just wait things out and let their ties get closer as trade increases. This is how China's done things for thousands of years, wait things out and avoid the cost of war. Not trying to knock on them but if there's one thing I've noticed about Chinese people, they really really like to make money and gain material comfort. Not necessary in a greed filled money at all costs kind of way, they can certainly be generous but they like to make money and not spend money on stupid things. And wars in general are stupid stupid things that cost a lot and give little gain, so the Chinese in general just don't care much for them. Besides China has a lot of soft power right now with the USA coming off as the aggressor and inspiring a lot of world hatred for the Iraq war and those disasters we had in Libya and Syria. China gets a lot more support by avoiding that.
he does not care about many things, he is a nationalist and plans that world have to bow to China, but he cares about those two items and the third one - color revolutions, as well as Putin and that is the point they meet. Also Taiwan's world's leader in chips production that China needs to be #1 .
A working-age population that will decline by 250,000,000 by 2050, making it the most rapidly-aging country in the world.
Debt-GDP ratio of 317% and soaring.
Gaudy growth numbers that are bogus, based on inventory builds by SOEs rather than actual profitability.
85% of its energy is loaded onto tankers in the Middle East and sails 7,000 through seas with multiple choke points.
40% of its manufacturing and exports is for foreign companies that could literally move operations tomorrow. As compared to Japan where the number is closer to 1%.
Labor costs that have increased 11x since 2000, now far in excess of Southeast Asia manufacturing economies. And that's after pretty much driving the interior population of the country into the cities. There's very little in the way of new labor resources to tap.
No allies, unless you count North Korea. Even Russia is a matter of convenience.
Extraordinary malinvestment, best typified by the fact that literally 30% of its housing units will never be occupied.
A torrent of capital flight.
A military that is nothing more than a glorified security force.
China hit its peak in 2015. It's about 10-15 years from being a failed state. The United States, Japan, Indonesia, Australia, or India could bring China to its knees by doing nothing more than blocking the stream of supertankers sailing to the South China Sea.
So, no. I don't buy the China scaremongering.
All very good points that most people are not aware of if they only read the headlines.
Also to consider:
- China has a restive ethnic population in Tibet and Turkestan/Xingjiang. If China ever becomes seriously destabilized, expect these area to try and break away, similar to what happened during the collapse of the Soviet Union or Austria-Hungary
- Totalitarian states are inherently unstable. There is no mechanism for the people to change unpopular leaders or policies. As China’s middle class gets richer, it’s unlikely they will not want more say in how they are governed. Once people become owners of property and other assets, the desire to have a say in how things are run increases.
- Massive corruption. Despite anti-corruption drives, corruption is endemic to most authoritarian/totalitarian systems.
- India, Japan, Australia, the United States. Four powerful nations that can control the sea lanes that China depends on for the importation of raw materials. China has no real allies. One of the few good things that George W Bush did was to strengthen ties with India.
Yeah, 25 years ago the media was trumpeting that the 21st Century was going to be the "Chinese Century". We are now more than a fifth of the way into this century and no one in the world but America hating Americans are looking to China for leadership in any form.
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