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Old 04-16-2021, 03:57 PM
 
26,660 posts, read 13,797,512 times
Reputation: 19118

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Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
He refused because it is impossible to derive such figures. If he gives a figure and it is not precisely what actually happens he will be accused of lying. He cannot win.

If he said, "By July 4" but it did not happen until July 5, he would be accused of lying. If he said 200 cases per day and it leveled out at 205, he would be accused of lying.

What it boils down to is people having unreasonable expectations of what he is able to predict.
He could say, “when hospitals are not at risk of becoming overwhelmed”.

 
Old 04-16-2021, 03:59 PM
 
Location: NMB, SC
43,345 posts, read 18,477,138 times
Reputation: 35127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
It might not be mentioned, but the overall immunity from vaccination occurs gradually over the days and weeks post-vaccination. Mine was the Moderna, and at that time 14 days was the number. As new data comes it it would not surprise me to find that the numbers change.
I would imagine that J&J would issue that change and they haven't. I'm past the 28 days but I followed it according to the manufacturer..J&J.

Yours was 14 days after the 2nd shot though. J&J was 1 shot 28 days.
Your total days would be from shot 1 as well which would be more than 2 weeks total.
 
Old 04-16-2021, 04:00 PM
 
Location: NMB, SC
43,345 posts, read 18,477,138 times
Reputation: 35127
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
He refused because it is impossible to derive such figures. If he gives a figure and it is not precisely what actually happens he will be accused of lying. He cannot win.

If he said, "By July 4" but it did not happen until July 5, he would be accused of lying. If he said 200 cases per day and it leveled out at 205, he would be accused of lying.

What it boils down to is people having unreasonable expectations of what he is able to predict.
He could have easily said.."When cases reach 40K/day we will re-evalutate"

One cannot operate without metrics...they have metrics but are telling the public nothing.
That is NOT transparency. I highly doubt the government is operating by the seat of their pants.

Fauci didn't say by July 4. President Biden did.
 
Old 04-16-2021, 04:10 PM
 
18,874 posts, read 8,527,480 times
Reputation: 4156
Quote:
Originally Posted by TMSRetired View Post
I would imagine that J&J would issue that change and they haven't. I'm past the 28 days but I followed it according to the manufacturer..J&J.

Yours was 14 days after the 2nd shot though. J&J was 1 shot 28 days.
Your total days would be from shot 1 as well which would be more than 2 weeks total.
That is certainly correct for the average recipient. And the one shot deal with the Johnson was and is no small matter.

As a recovered Covid 19 patient, I had serious enough reaction to jab#1, that I declined on #2.
 
Old 04-16-2021, 04:52 PM
 
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
17,762 posts, read 7,004,307 times
Reputation: 16689
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
He refused because it is impossible to derive such figures. If he gives a figure and it is not precisely what actually happens he will be accused of lying. He cannot win.

If he said, "By July 4" but it did not happen until July 5, he would be accused of lying. If he said 200 cases per day and it leveled out at 205, he would be accused of lying.

What it boils down to is people having unreasonable expectations of what he is able to predict.
He hasn't been afraid to lie before, so why is he so worried about "lying" here.

The fact is he and you and others like playing these stupid games for political reasons, and you want it to continue indefinitely.
 
Old 04-16-2021, 04:53 PM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,548,578 times
Reputation: 10096
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wapasha View Post
Fauci refused to give any population figures in the Senate hearing to explain when that level of herd immunity will be. He also would not say what the number on the the daily tracking numbers would be, when we were no longer in a crisis situation. My guess is never, because they will always attempt to move the goal posts, and kick the ball up field to lengthen the tyranny.
^^^^This. Good post.
 
Old 04-16-2021, 05:09 PM
 
Location: Rural Wisconsin
19,900 posts, read 9,464,540 times
Reputation: 38518
I am very sorry to say this, but I doubt VERY much if the restrictions will end before the U.S. has turned into a dictatorship.

I am now convinced that we will continue to hear one excuse after another for a delay in returning to what was normal before 2020. One variant after another = one excuse after another for delaying. And if there is not another variant, we will be told there might be another variant, or there might be another resurgence, or that the vaccines are not so effective or safe after all, or whatever other excuse the "experts" can come up with in order to demand that the public continue to follow whatever rules and restrictions our leaders decide to impose. Either that, we will be greeted with the news of some other kind of pandemic or major threat in an attempt to keep us fearful.

I dare anyone to go on record on this thread and say, "No, you're wrong, we will be back to normal in less than two years (or three years or five years or whatever)." I, however, am willing to go on record and say that we will not have our pre-2020 freedoms back for at least two more years, and I would not be surprised if we have lost them forever.

If May 2023 arrives, and there are no more rules about wearing masks or being able to again do whatever we want in public places that was not illegal before 2020, I will GLADLY say I was wrong!

And for those who would decline to meet my challenge because "no one is a mind-reader and no one can foretell the future" -- well, yes, of course, that is correct -- but the problem is that many people have said, "Just wait a few more months. Just be patient," and I am tired of hearing it!
 
Old 04-16-2021, 05:58 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA
14,834 posts, read 7,438,494 times
Reputation: 8966
Quote:
Originally Posted by katharsis View Post
I am very sorry to say this, but I doubt VERY much if the restrictions will end before the U.S. has turned into a dictatorship.

I am now convinced that we will continue to hear one excuse after another for a delay in returning to what was normal before 2020. One variant after another = one excuse after another for delaying. And if there is not another variant, we will be told there might be another variant, or there might be another resurgence, or that the vaccines are not so effective or safe after all, or whatever other excuse the "experts" can come up with in order to demand that the public continue to follow whatever rules and restrictions our leaders decide to impose. Either that, we will be greeted with the news of some other kind of pandemic or major threat in an attempt to keep us fearful.

I dare anyone to go on record on this thread and say, "No, you're wrong, we will be back to normal in less than two years (or three years or five years or whatever)." I, however, am willing to go on record and say that we will not have our pre-2020 freedoms back for at least two more years, and I would not be surprised if we have lost them forever.

If May 2023 arrives, and there are no more rules about wearing masks or being able to again do whatever we want in public places that was not illegal before 2020, I will GLADLY say I was wrong!

And for those who would decline to meet my challenge because "no one is a mind-reader and no one can foretell the future" -- well, yes, of course, that is correct -- but the problem is that many people have said, "Just wait a few more months. Just be patient," and I am tired of hearing it!
I think we're back to normal before May 2023. We need to get to around 80% fully vaccinated.

This the trajectory we are on (in dose equivalent units):

Feb 1: 5%
Mar 1: 11%
Apr 1: 23%
Apr 16 (today): 31%
 
Old 04-16-2021, 06:05 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
37,190 posts, read 41,406,761 times
Reputation: 45314
Quote:
Originally Posted by himain View Post
Kinda like you believing the "vaccines" could not have serious side effects down the line??
I have seen no evidence that the vaccines (any of them) will ever have the number of serious adverse effects that COVID-19 has.

Quote:
Originally Posted by newtovenice View Post
Yeah, funny how it only works in favor of the vaccines, isn't it.

We can't predict XYZ!!!

But all experimental vaccines are safe to roll out to the population ... except the ones we have to halt because of side effects.
None of the vaccines have been "halted". The J&J vaccine has been paused while the clotting issue is evaluated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MissTerri View Post
He could say, “when hospitals are not at risk of becoming overwhelmed”.
That is not what the poster I was responding to wants. He wants a date and daily number of cases.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TMSRetired View Post
He could have easily said.."When cases reach 40K/day we will re-evalutate"

One cannot operate without metrics...they have metrics but are telling the public nothing.
That is NOT transparency. I highly doubt the government is operating by the seat of their pants.

Fauci didn't say by July 4. President Biden did.
I can tell you that 40,000 cases per day is probably too high. It represents too heavy a community viral load.

I was using July 4 as a hypothetical.

I explained why he does not want to give numbers. If he does not precisely predict what happens he will be accused of lying, although the precision people want is unobtainable.

If you would like to prognosticate, look at Israel. With about half its population vaccinated it's down to a rolling average of 202 cases per day. The US, with its larger population, may need to see that kind of result for the country from coast to coast. The equivalent number of cases in the US would be about 7500 per day. Those cases cannot be clustered in hot spots, though, because then it will continue to spread back to areas with few or no cases. What remains to be seen is whether what is happening in Israel is sustained. They are still vaccinating, so the seven day average may fall some more, but it has to fall and stay down. It will take more than a few days to see what happens.
 
Old 04-16-2021, 06:10 PM
 
Location: Hoosierville
17,592 posts, read 14,759,330 times
Reputation: 11734
Quote:
Originally Posted by RowingFiend View Post
He hasn't been afraid to lie before, so why is he so worried about "lying" here.

The fact is he and you and others like playing these stupid games for political reasons, and you want it to continue indefinitely.
Ain't that the truth.
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