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Putin invaded, annexed, and still controls Crimea after 7 years. Now he has invaded and annexed four more Ukrainian territories. What Putin wants, he takes, and we let him keep it. That is called, success.
It's more like the US drawing lines and daring Putin to cross the line, which he does every time. So we just draw another line and dare him to cross that. Which of course he will.
I wouldn't call what we are witnessing a Russian success....it's a Russian debacle. Put can play pretend all he wants but they are approaching their limit to conduct war in Ukraine. Putin made a bad gamble and ended up a loser.
The Kremlin continues to violate its stated “partial mobilization†procedures and contradict its own messaging even while recognizing the systematic failures within the Russian bureaucracy just eight days after the declaration of mobilization.
The Kremlin’s contradictory statements and procedures demonstrate the fundamental nature of the systemic weakness of the Russian military establishment that have characterized the entire invasion.
The bureaucratic failures in the Russian partial mobilization may indicate that Putin has again bypassed the Russian higher military command or the Russian MoD.
Belarus remains highly unlikely to become directly involved in the war in Ukraine on the part of Russia, despite statements made by Ukrainian sources on September 29 that Belarus is preparing to accommodate newly mobilized Russian servicemen.
Key Takeaways
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The Kremlin continues to violate its stated “partial mobilization†procedures and contradict its own messaging even while recognizing the systematic failures within the Russian bureaucracy just eight days after the declaration of mobilization.
Belarus may be preparing to accommodate newly-mobilized Russian servicemen but remains unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine on Russia’s behalf.
Ukrainian troops have likely nearly completed the encirclement of the Russian grouping in Lyman and cut critical ground lines of communication (GLOCS) that support Russian troops in the Drobysheve-Lyman area.
Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast but stated that Russian forces are deploying newly-mobilized troops to reinforce the Kherson Oblast frontline.
Ukrainian troops continued to target Russian logistics, transportation, and military assets in Kherson Oblast.
Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces have likely increased the use of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in southern Ukraine.
An independent Russian polling organization, the Levada Center, found that almost half of polled Russians are anxious about mobilization, but that support for Russian military actions declined only slightly to 44%.
Ukrainian officials reiterated their concerns that the Kremlin will mobilize Ukrainian citizens in occupied oblasts following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation announcement.
Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
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The Kremlin continued to face challenges in attempting to suppress anti-mobilization protests throughout Russia. A Russian Human Rights group reported that Russians protested in 11 different Russian cities and settlements on September 29.[42] Russian sources reported that Russian police dispersed an anti-mobilization protest in Kyzyl, Tuva Oblast, detaining 20 women.[43] Russians continued to attack local administrations and military recruitment centers, with Novosibirsk Oblast officials claiming to have detained a man who had attempted to set a military recruitment center on fire in Novosibirsk.[44] Russian sources also reported that unknown protesters set village administrations on fire in Moscow and Rostov Oblast on September 28 and September 29, respectively.[45] Unknown perpetrators also reportedly attempted arson at a military recruitment center in Vladivostok two nights in a row on September 27 and September 28.[46]
Independent Russian polling organization Levada Center found that almost half of polled Russians are anxious about mobilization, but the support for Russian military actions has not significantly declined since the declaration of partial mobilization. Levada found that 47% of Russians expressed concern over mobilization, 13% were outraged, and 11% noted experiencing depression as a result of the mobilization; 23% reported feeling prideful for Russia.[47] More than half of polled Russians said they are afraid that war in Ukraine may lead to general mobilization, whereas a majority of respondents did not express such concern in February 2022. Levada noted that the percent of Russians reporting concern about the situation in Ukraine increased from 74% in August to 88% this week, but absolute support for Russian forces’ actions in Ukraine only decreased by two percent to 44% in the same time frame.[48]
Russian enlistment officers are continuing to undertake sly measures to prevent Russian men from avoiding mobilization. Russian outlets reported that teachers may administer draft notices to men, while enlistment officers in Vladivostok attempted to use fire alarms to coerce men into leaving their apartments.[49] Russian officials are also distributing summonses and establishing checkpoints at the Russian-Kazakh border in Astrakhan Oblast to prevent Russian men from fleeing abroad.[50]
The Kremlin continues to redeploy troops and equipment from the westernmost part of Russia to reinforce war efforts in Ukraine. An unnamed senior Nordic defense official told Foreign Policy that Russia has approximately 6,000 remaining troops of its pre-war 30,000 at the borders with Baltic countries and Finland.[51] The official stressed that Russian forces largely maintained their air power and the Northern Fleet in the area but deployed high-end military hardware such as anti-aircraft systems and missiles to Ukraine. The Kremlin’s consistent deployment of troops and military equipment from westernmost bases is not consistent with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s narratives claiming that the war is a response to NATO threatening Russian territory.
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas
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Ukrainian officials reiterated their concerns that the Kremlin will mobilize Ukrainian citizens in occupied oblasts following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation announcement. A representative of Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Vadym Skibitsky, said that the Kremlin would announce mobilization in occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia Oblasts after annexing these territories.[52] Skibitsky added that Russian forces have already mobilized “almost all†of the male population in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Advisor to the Mariupol Mayor Petro Andryushenko stated that annexation will allow Russians to also mobilize temporarily displaced persons for Donetsk City, Makiivka, and Horlivka, that will be considered Russian citizens under Russian law.[53] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai also noted that Russian border officials are not letting approximately 1,000 Ukrainian refugees from occupied territories in Pskov Oblast flee to Latvia.[54] The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Russian occupation officials in Crimea are prioritizing mobilizing Crimean Tatars and are assigning them to units operating in areas of intense hostilities.[55]
Ukrainian partisans continued to target collaborators in occupied territories. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian partisans attempted to kill collaborator Olena Shapurova in an improvised explosive device attack in Melitopol on September 29.[56] Shapurova’s husband reportedly sustained injuries as a result of the attack.
If the bolded are causes you seriously find need attention, then I hope you are stepping up and doing your part. If you are waiting for the "government" to fix this for you, that kind of thinking is part of the problem. Be the change you want to see. But either way, that's not the topic of this thread. Perhaps you'll start a thread about the matters that are near and dear to your own heart soon?
U.S. Government spending towards Ukraine does belong in this thread. I mentioned several areas of concern because Congress is approving financial aid packages worth billions of dollars for another country, meanwhile ignoring our own citizens needs in certain circumstances.
The rest of your post had nothing to do with the topic of Ukraine, our government, congressional spending, or the war between Russia-Ukraine. Telling me what I should do and talking down to me, is not relevant. I gave my opinion toward the new aid package for Ukraine and reasons why I felt it was a mistake. If you don't agree, that is fine.
I wouldn't call what we are witnessing a Russian success....it's a Russian debacle. Put can play pretend all he wants but they are approaching their limit to conduct war in Ukraine. Putin made a bad gamble and ended up a loser.
Russia seized 20% of the territory of the Ukraine and now they have annexed it to Russia.
Putin wanted Crimea and he got it. Putin wanted a land bridge to Crimea and as of today, he's got that too. You can't gloat over Putin's loses, and ignore his victories. Well you can if you want, but you are not being logical.
Russia may very well be approaching their limit. But they control 90% of the land they annexed. So they don't need much more. If they have to they will just cede that 10% to the Ukraine. Putin will still have what he really wants, which is the land bridge.
Each of the 12 possibilities is discussed and assigned ratings for both Likelihood and Scariness.
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Russia has proven over hundreds of years of history that they are incapable of being a civilized nation and a positive force in the world. We need to nuke 'em and be done with it.
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