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Again you are missing it. The whole 8% thing, was made PRIOR to anyone knowing how immense the collapse was. The report which included the chart, was released in early Jan, the figures and the estimates used in the chart were based off information known in mid December. While everyone new the economy was in trouble, no one knew how immense of a situation we were in at that time.
Wrong.. They very well know how immense the collapse was. Hell, Obamas whol campaign hinged on the ecollapse and the impact it had on americans.
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Originally Posted by Smash255
The chart was made prior to the knowledge of the 1.5 million jobs lost during Bush's last two months in office. Prior to the horrific 4th quarter 08 earnings and GDP reports. Once that stuff came out everyone had a clearer picture of the situation we were in. No one knew how bad it was until that information came out.
Wrong again, the chart was published January 10th, pleanty of time for them to know the unemployment expectations of both the last two months in office, as well as the next future months.
Its not like we live in a bubble, and actions change day by day.
Wrong, they used figures from the BLS to analize the unemployment rate with, and without the recovery plan. They were judging FUTURE unemployment rates, not past rates during the Bush term..
They were judging future unemployment rates based off the information known at the time of the report. The report for example did not take into consideration the 1.5 million jobs that were lost during Bush's last two months in office, because that info wasn't known when it was created.
Wrong, they used figures from the BLS to analize the unemployment rate with, and without the recovery plan. They were judging FUTURE unemployment rates, not past rates during the Bush term..
Hello? They were projecting future unemployment rates using current and recent past actual unemployment rates as the base data and a bunch of complicated formulas describing how employment has been known to respond in the past to relevant conditions and circumstances. The existing data define the start point. The projection describes only the sum of all the vectors and scalars moving away from that start point. The base data define the range. The projection defines the shape of the curves.
Wrong.. They very well know how immense the collapse was. Hell, Obamas whol campaign hinged on the ecollapse and the impact it had on americans.
Wrong again, the chart was published January 10th, pleanty of time for them to know the unemployment expectations of both the last two months in office, as well as the next future months.
Its not like we live in a bubble, and actions change day by day.
The chart was released on Jan 10th, the data used in the chart came from mid December. NO ONE knew the extent of the problem we were facing. The 1.5 million jobs that were lost during those two months along with the 4th quarter earnings reports and th 4th quarter GDP reports blew EVERYONE out of the water. No economists, not liberal ones, not conservatives ones nor more moderate ones thought the situation was as bad as it was until those things were known. Everyone was completely blown away by the numbers.
They were judging future unemployment rates based off the information known at the time of the report. The report for example did not take into consideration the 1.5 million jobs that were lost during Bush's last two months in office, because that info wasn't known when it was created.
Yes they did know. December 2008's unemployment figures were known well before the stimulus bill had passed. Stop pretending like people expected some imaginary turn around January 20th in the unemployment numbers and people didnt have an indication that the unemployment numbers would continue to rise.
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS14000000_176152_1273261314110.gif (broken link)
Are you seriously going to sit here and pretend like no one knew where the Jan/Feb unemployment numbers were headed by looking at this chart?
Yes they did know. December 2008's unemployment figures were known well before the stimulus bill had passed. Stop pretending like people expected some imaginary turn around January 20th in the unemployment numbers and people didnt have an indication that the unemployment numbers would continue to rise.
Are you seriously going to sit here and pretend like no one knew where the Jan/Feb unemployment numbers were headed by looking at this chart?
Yes prior to the Stimulus being passed they knew how bad things were. However, that is NOT what I was referring to. I was referring to the chart, the whole 8% thing. While everyone predicted unemployment would continue to rise, and the economy to get worse no one predicted the 1.5 million job loss figure during Bush's last two months. Nor did anyone predict the massive GDP drop and earnings report disaster of the 4th quarter of 2008.
Everyone knew we were in trouble, and things were getting worse, however no one knew to the extent until these figures and reports were known and released, and that info was released after this whole 8% chart was made.
Yes they did know. December 2008's unemployment figures were known well before the stimulus bill had passed.
The report in question was prepared in late December, printed and circulated for internal comment in early January, and released to the public at 6:00 am on January 10. In late December, the most recent unemployment number was that for November 2008. It was 6.7%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest
Stop pretending like people.....
Stop just making up petty deflections for the sole purpose of not having to admit it when you have been caught dead in the wrong.
Last edited by saganista; 05-07-2010 at 02:13 PM..
Jobs come in the spring because summer jobs go up for tourism and college kids go home and jobs become available.
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Originally Posted by trnsplntfrmNV
Thats right the college kids came home and took the summer jobs, what was I thinking.
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Originally Posted by malamute
Don't forget the seasonal farm working jobs - even if a large number of them will only go to the thousands of people coming over the border illegally.
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Originally Posted by James420
You are so right and lets not forget landscaping jobs that last until September. I hope real jobs are picking up, the more people working= better for everyone. Work should always pick up in March and April and should fall off in October and November.
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Originally Posted by malamute
I would guess that 98% of those "new" jobs are in landscaping, farm work, and hotel cleaning work. The seasonal jobs.
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Originally Posted by db1025
2 words for you. SEASONAL WORK!
ATTENTION, ALL UNITS! ATTENTION, ALL UNITS!
The unemployment numbers are SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. Over there at BLS, they know all about college kids, and summer work, and that tourism thing, and the whole nine yards of dozens of different causes of seasonality, all of which are wrung out of the data before they are published.
So now you know, but some of you will forget by the time the clock strikes the next hour...
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Again you are missing it. The whole 8% thing, was made PRIOR to anyone knowing how immense the collapse was. The report which included the chart, was released in early Jan, the figures and the estimates used in the chart were based off information known in mid December. While everyone new the economy was in trouble, no one knew how immense of a situation we were in at that time.
The obama administration was telling the nation that we were close to another great depression - can't get any more dire than that. They knew full well the severity, but they fudged the numbers once again.
Can't have it both ways - on the one hand, saying we were headed for the great depression and then when your stimulus fails miserably, saying that we didn't realize the severity.
That's obama talking out of both ends.
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Jobs come in the spring because summer jobs go up for tourism and college kids go home and jobs become available.
Thats right the college kids came home and took the summer jobs, what was I thinking. 
