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Yes prior to the Stimulus being passed they knew how bad things were. However, that is NOT what I was referring to. I was referring to the chart, the whole 8% thing. While everyone predicted unemployment would continue to rise, and the economy to get worse no one predicted the 1.5 million job loss figure during Bush's last two months. Nor did anyone predict the massive GDP drop and earnings report disaster of the 4th quarter of 2008.
Everyone knew we were in trouble, and things were getting worse, however no one knew to the extent until these figures and reports were known and released, and that info was released after this whole 8% chart was made.
Wrong, they used figures from the BLS to analize the unemployment rate with, and without the recovery plan. They were judging FUTURE unemployment rates, not past rates during the Bush term.
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista
Hello? They were projecting future unemployment rates using current and recent past actual unemployment rates as the base data and a bunch of complicated formulas describing how employment has been known to respond in the past to relevant conditions and circumstances.
Thank you Shirlock Holmes for saying exactly what I said.
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista
The existing data define the start point. The projection describes only the sum of all the vectors and scalars moving away from that start point. The base data define the range. The projection defines the shape of the curves.
I very much see the shape of a line, not a curve..
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS14000000_176152_1273261314110.gif (broken link)
The obama administration was telling the nation that we were close to another great depression - can't get any more dire than that. They knew full well the severity, but they fudged the numbers once again.
Can't have it both ways - on the one hand, saying we were headed for the great depression and then when your stimulus fails miserably, saying that we didn't realize the severity.
That's obama talking out of both ends.
First off th Stimulus didn't fail miserably. Secondly, he said we were heading for another great depression once the information about the job loss, 4th quarter reports etc were known, the whole 8% figure wasn't used when they knew that info.
The chart was released on Jan 10th, the data used in the chart came from mid December. NO ONE knew the extent of the problem we were facing. The 1.5 million jobs that were lost during those two months along with the 4th quarter earnings reports and th 4th quarter GDP reports blew EVERYONE out of the water. No economists, not liberal ones, not conservatives ones nor more moderate ones thought the situation was as bad as it was until those things were known. Everyone was completely blown away by the numbers.
Why would one be surprised by numbers going up, if they've gone up all year? Come on, dont give us that line of bs that they didnt expect the numbers to continue to climb, THEY CAMPAIGNED on the fact they were climbing at such an alarming rate..
Did anyone check the birth/death model numbers for this current report ?
The BLS says 1,158,000 new jobs got created for this reporting month. Preliminary of course.
We seem to be almost doubling the number of new jobs created since Feb 2010.
In Jan 2010 we lost 2.8 million jobs.
Why would one be surprised by numbers going up, if they've gone up all year? Come on, dont give us that line of bs that they didnt expect the numbers to continue to climb, THEY CAMPAIGNED on the fact they were climbing at such an alarming rate..
Yes they did, and they thought we would continue to see job loss. However, no one was predicting job loss exceeding 700,000 a month, no one was predicting the 4th quarter 08 GDP decline as sharp as what it was or those earnings reports to be as horrid as what they were NO ONE.
They were judging future unemployment rates based off the information known at the time of the report. The report for example did not take into consideration the 1.5 million jobs that were lost during Bush's last two months in office, because that info wasn't known when it was created.
Smash..that chart was so far off base they never showed it again after that and they have never uttered one comment about it.
It's like it never existed. They screwed up horribly with that chart and they learned their lesson but good. There have been no more "projections" coming from the WH thank goodness.
Oh that again, you won't give up charts created before Bush even left office. Charts created before 1.5 million jobs were lost during Bush's last two months in office. Charts created prior to the horrendous 4th quarter 2008 earnings & GDP reports were out. You won't give that up will you??
You couldn't be farther from the truth if you tried.
The report AND chart was issued in Jan 2009, less than 2 weeks before obama took office. This is what they had been working on. This is what they used to sell the failed stimulus.
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