Portland cut police funding and got a 2,000% surge in murders (Eugene: neighborhoods, cinema)

[BillyH]

Originally Posted by redguard57

Absolute terms is still pretty low. E.g. San Antonio is similar size as Portland and it has ~100 or so murders in a good year. It's at 55 or so already. New Orleans is smaller than pdx and it's typically at ~150 murders per year and it jumped in 2020. They're all up.

The pandemic created more demand for drugs, so people are fighting more over them. There is also more family violence, more murder-suicides, etc.. Plagues are generally bad for humanity. That's why in the Bible plague is up there with pestilence, famine, and war.

Similar in size Portland 665,000 SA 1,500,000 in city limits where the murders are counted in city proper.

[EasyBeezy]

Originally Posted by BillyH

Similar in size Portland 665,000 SA 1,500,000 in city limits where the murders are counted in city proper.

It is a valid comparison. Even though the city of San Antonio is much larger in population than Portland, San Antonio is unique in that it has almost no separate suburban jurisdictions. The suburbs are almost all within the city limits. The metro areas as a whole are similar in population.

[BillyH]

I don't disagree with that but 1,500,00 SA city limits is going to have a higher murder count than 650,000 Portland city limits.

[karlsch]

How bad are the murders in Portland compared to Chicago, a city that is always in the news because of its many murders?

Through May 29 Portland had 37 homicides, Chicago 265, about 7 times as many. Chicago seems much worse – but if you analyze it, maybe not.

The increase in homicides is mostly happening in African-American communities. That's why you have protests such as this: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...-the-violence/

According to City-Data, the African-American population of Portland is 35972, and the African-American population of Chicago is 768524, about 21 times that of Portland. 21 times the population, and only 7 times the homicides. Per-capita, the homicide problem for the African-American communities is much worse for Portland.

[EasyBeezy]

Originally Posted by karlsch

How bad are the murders in Portland compared to Chicago, a city that is always in the news because of its many murders?

Through May 29 Portland had 37 homicides, Chicago 265, about 7 times as many. Chicago seems much worse – but if you analyze it, maybe not.

The increase in homicides is mostly happening in African-American communities. That's why you have protests such as this: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...-the-violence/

According to City-Data, the African-American population of Portland is 35972, and the African-American population of Chicago is 768524, about 21 times that of Portland. 21 times the population, and only 7 times the homicides. Per-capita, the homicide problem for the African-American communities is much worse for Portland.

It's nice to see some quality analysis on this forum.

I think I remember city leaders saying a few weeks ago that there was some sort of gang influx and ritualized violence situation going on right now. This would seem to support that statement.

[redguard57]

Homicides are up all over the country. As a good example - they doubled in Omaha, NE from 20 in 2019 to 40 in 2020. Omaha is a 400k sized city.

Criminologists are not sure what's causing it, but the pandemic is high on the list. The prevailing theory I've seen is:

1. that people who were already marginal lost their jobs and livelihoods.
2. They are more stressed because of the pandemic effects, and
3. people have bought more guns than ever before.

• So there are more fights and conflicts than before, and now those conflicts escalate to deadly firearm force faster and easier, whereas pre-pandemic those fights might have been with fists and knives. Or just less stress and so less fighting.

We're also seeing among the middle and upper classes things like skyrocketing searches for marital and mental health counseling; in 2021 divorce lawyers have been getting inundated. So that stress theory makes sense.

I will also note that Portland and Oregon had pretty strict lockdowns and closures relative to the rest of the country, and STILL is. The people in Portland are more anal-retentive about restrictions and masks compared to other places I've been this year, which I expect plays out in many ways. Call me crazy, but I think it's because the society got worse, and it got even more worse for young people who did not have well established jobs that converted online, people of color, and poorer people, all of whom are closer to crime.

Looking at the homicide list from 2020, the police cited "money and drugs" as most of the reasons, but also a quite high increase of domestic conflicts that turned violent, e.g.: one that was a dispute over loud music. That would be evidence in favor of the stress + guns theory. In the past a guy wouldn't have shot his neighbor over loud music. Then starting circa August-September 2020 you start seeing a lot more reference to gang activity and people either crossing them or getting caught in gang crossfire.

[Atlanta-Native]

Looks like roughly 50 more cops just bailed. These fools that are destroying property will get what they deserve and they aren't gonna like it.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/18/us/po...eam/index.html

[MaltCueOur]

Not enough cops are leaving to cause a tipping point into Mogadishu-status. It just means Portland will become like East St. Louis.

[Jimrob1]

I don't blame the Portland police for resigning at all I'm surprised it took this long. Actually I'm surprised anyone would want that job period especially in Portland.

[Atlanta-Native]

Originally Posted by Jimrob1

I don't blame the Portland police for resigning at all I'm surprised it took this long. Actually I'm surprised anyone would want that job period especially in Portland.

Agreed.