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ill run with dumb, since 1987 i have been the dummy investing when everyone else is paralizyed and panic stricken. that nice dumb co-op i invested in at the peak of the market in 1987 in nyc 2 weeks before the stock market and real estate crash here is now worth many times the dumb price i paid. its amazing how time took me from dummy to genius.
this dummy is retiring nice and early next year on all those dumb investments.,...
ill run with dumb, since 1987 i have been the dummy investing when everyone else is paralizyed and panic stricken. that nice dumb co-op i invested in at the peak of the market in 1987 in nyc 2 weeks before the stock market and real estate crash here is now worth many times the dumb price i paid. its amazing how time took me from dummy to genius.
this dummy is retiring nice and early next year on all those dumb investments.,...
The think is, most people are not as you describe "paralizyed and panic stricket" regarding the current real estate market, which is why sales are so high right now.
Nearly everyone who doesn't participate in the online forums thinks this is the best time to buy ever.
The think is, most people are not as you describe "paralizyed and panic stricket" regarding the current real estate market, which is why sales are so high right now.
Nearly everyone who doesn't participate in the online forums thinks this is the best time to buy ever.
LOL. Oh, that this were true. Not "nearly everyone" thinks this is the best time to buy. Enough do that sales are up (mostly on the low end houses where the incentives help) but if it were "nearly everyone" my house would have sold in a day, priced as it is with location, location, location.
But it certainly isn't "doom and gloom and depression." It is the slow road to recovery and buyers are out there, timidly looking to make the purchase.
Just bought in April and am so glad that I did! Love my house and if I had waited for the market to completely rebound, there is no way that I would have been able to afford to get into my house! Plus, smaller homes in my neighborhood, since I bought, have sold for more! I got a good deal and I don't plan on moving anytime soon!
I'm with you. We just downsized into a smaller but very nice home about 5 months ago and got a 4 3/8 interest rate. You can't get that today or even the price we paid for our home.
We also bought another home for a rental and got a 5% rate for investment property. That's a great deal.
Our market here in DFW (in many areas) is stable and in many cases it's a great time to jump on some pretty good deals.
The think is, most people are not as you describe "paralizyed and panic stricket" regarding the current real estate market, which is why sales are so high right now.
Nearly everyone who doesn't participate in the online forums thinks this is the best time to buy ever.
I would say based on the collapse in housing prices in some areas and the foreclosures piling up and the fact that so many are just not acting for fear we are headed lower things are pretty close to what i was referring to
fear is the right word for some.. some are are so afraid of loosing money that the fear just paralyzes them from ever acting or ever getting to the party early enough that they ever really reap the juiciest gains in anything.
they sell when they should buy , they buy as the party is winding down and they complain how the markets suck ,....
not that its a bad thing to be ultra-careful at times but alot of those folks end up never letting their investments shine or they hold off so long buying a home that now a rise in rates has them waiting for the next cycle.
long term those types rarely ever accumulate enough in assets to live the lifestyle in retirement they would like ... thats not to say everyone whos on the fence falls into that catagory ... but if you find you seem to do this with every money decsion you need to be aware of it . the most successful people i know are those that take those very calculated risks and stop believing their own bull-sh*t as to why they shouldnt do something. they let their brain talk them out of doing things just at the right time these things should be done.
as i talked about in a previous thread jason zweigs research with modern brain scanning equipment shows our brains hate loosing money more then it likes making money . our thoughts are biased and weighted much to our surprise and we arent getting a fair analysis of facts into unbiased opinion ....
our brains will stop us dead in our tracks sometimes and for no valid reason other then our own fear of loosing money.
thats why i used the word fear
its not timing all these markets its time in the markets.
i thought my greatest tragedy was my first investment property i bought in 1987.. two weeks before the stock market crash and before the greatest real estate crash nyc had seen.
i watched my investment property loose 30% by the time the smoke cleared.
it took a decade to come back to even.
today i cant even remember those events if i wasnt re-hashing. i can sell it today even at this time and get many times my money back....
Last edited by mathjak107; 11-19-2009 at 05:08 PM..
I would say based on the collapse in housing prices in some areas and the foreclosures piling up and the fact that so many are just not acting for fear we are headed lower things are pretty close to what i was referring to
You have a lot of things backwards here.
The collapse and subsequent pile up of foreclosed inventory is directly and soley attributable to bad loans being issued and subsequently defaulted on.
The failure of that inventory to sell off is due to:
1.) Continued forclosures at record pace.
2.) Stricter lending standards.
3.) Highest unemployment rates since the Great Depression.
4.) Lack of investor interest in certain markets.
None of the above have anything at all to do with "fear" of buying.
your not following my point.. im not saying panic and fear is what caused our problems nor am i saying there is pandamonian in the streets, im saying peoples own fear of loosing money and not acting alot of times or their selling out of fear of loosing money has allowed me to make nice profits thru out my investing career. it all has very much to do with fear of buying and loosing money... why do you suppose so many walked away from their properties even though they could pay the mortgage---FEAR OF LOOSING MONEY
why do you suppose those that want homes are afraid to buy them now - FEAR OF LOOSING MONEY if things fall further
we bought a house recently and i had to fight myself to do it. we are retiring in a year or so and i wanted a home in the pocono mountains of pa. my brain almost talked me out of doing it.
why do you suppose the funds i bought around the march lows rose over 80% since then.. while other were panicking and selling for FEAR of loosing money ,i was buying.
dont mis-understand the word. it dosnt have to mean pandamonium in the streets, its your own fear inside that you may loose money that stops people dead in their tracks and that creates oppertunity for others who can act. .. in fact alot of times its this fear that forces people to do exactly the opposite of what they should have done.
im going to say that im quite sure that this downturn will create some incredible wealth eventually . it already has created amazing amounts of wealth in an amazing short period of time for those who had no fear of loosing money as markets of all types dropped with panic selling. .
think about the fact right now it would take 304 years in a treasury bill to double your money. thats a freakin very long time. for those that squelched their fears and bought equities near the lows you just about did it in 6 months...
long term ill bet the real estate market will create quite a bit of wealth too but like any cycleable asset its a long term hold..... dont want to wait? dont do it!.
there were so many deals i regreted not doing in the early 90;s but real estate just crashed here in new york city and my brain handed me every line and what if... i already owned a property i bought at the peak and it was under water.. i took advantage of a few but no where near what i should have. TODAY I WISH I HAD BOUGHT A DOZEN PROPERTIES LIKE THE ONE I BOUGHT THAT WAS UNDER WATER BACK THEN. I WOULD EVEN HAVE BOUGHT THEM AT THE PEAK TOO.
for a great insight into just how our brain paralyzes us with fear i suggest reading JASON ZWEIGS BOOK- YOUR MONEY YOUR BRAIN.
Last edited by mathjak107; 11-20-2009 at 03:57 AM..
3.) Highest unemployment rates since the Great Depression.
You must not have been around during the Carter Administration.
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LOL. Oh, that this were true. 
Not "nearly everyone" thinks this is the best time to buy. Enough do that sales are up (mostly on the low end houses where the incentives help) but if it were "nearly everyone" my house would have sold in a day, priced as it is with location, location, location. 
