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Nice to see the year starting off on more transparent footing without govt intervention. Havent heard a peep from Lawrence Yun either, the Chief Economist for the NAR.
Inventory quality still sucks on a price/zip code ratio, but on the daily changes I am seeing slightly more movement in the removed and relisted columns. Some are probably hoping to reset the 90 day MLS expiration rule in time for spring sales.
Market isn't going to move based on poor credit scores and no down payments for mortgages, this is a fact. Cash is not winning deals per se, they just happen to be the only game in town that has more leverage for neogtiating.
The "move up" market is a dismal failure right now as well, of course unless you want to buy someone's house at 05 prices.
SO much news about this in SD, because there are not many places in the country where real estate had shown inflated gains in valuation. Economic fundamentals are a non issue in valuation because by the time any normalizing were to happen, there would be another spike.
Yeah, I agree it's better to totally avoid this government intervention. I really wish the government would stop interfering and just let prices come to a natural bottom and just let prices find their true values. And also all the properties that need to be foreclosed on...get foreclosed on, purge the system (and banking system) of these properties which many the owners haven't made a payment in 2 years.
Guys like Yun were SO wrong for so long.... it's a wonder anyone would even listen to anything he had to say now anyway. Most people have such a low opinion of the NAR now (and rightfully so, IMHO).
Some of the listings are a bit comical. Especially the price changes. Some owners can't sell their home so they raise prices, then raise prices again, then lower prices. See this listing (NOT a property I'm interested in and doesn't look so appealing to me) but I still like looking through the price changes.
Previously I found that owners didn't really care if people were coming to the table with cash but now more do. On several deals it looks like there was an offer contingent on getting a mortgage and the bank denied them. Also talking to some realtors, that seems to be the case as well in other areas with expensive homes. At least cash offers avoid the contingency and worry for owners of getting approved.
Shmoov and others, you know the area well.... what's your opinion on SantaLuz? The area looks VERY nice and the school district is superb. The only downside I see there is the VERY high HOA fees of around $450 per month plus Mello Roos on most of the houses are about $5,000+ per year. Besides that do you see any other negatives? It looks like a nice gated community.
Also, I'd be curious if anyone knows why there are always so many houses for sale on Caminito Lazanja in Santaluz? I've consistently seen many houses for sale on that street. I was just curious if there was any particular reason why? Anyone know that street well there?
Yeah, I agree it's better to totally avoid this government intervention. I really wish the government would stop interfering and just let prices come to a natural bottom and just let prices find their true values. And also all the properties that need to be foreclosed on...get foreclosed on, purge the system (and banking system) of these properties which many the owners haven't made a payment in 2 years.
Guys like Yun were SO wrong for so long.... it's a wonder anyone would even listen to anything he had to say now anyway. Most people have such a low opinion of the NAR now (and rightfully so, IMHO).
Some of the listings are a bit comical. Especially the price changes. Some owners can't sell their home so they raise prices, then raise prices again, then lower prices. See this listing (NOT a property I'm interested in and doesn't look so appealing to me) but I still like looking through the price changes.
Previously I found that owners didn't really care if people were coming to the table with cash but now more do. On several deals it looks like there was an offer contingent on getting a mortgage and the bank denied them. Also talking to some realtors, that seems to be the case as well in other areas with expensive homes. At least cash offers avoid the contingency and worry for owners of getting approved.
Shmoov and others, you know the area well.... what's your opinion on SantaLuz? The area looks VERY nice and the school district is superb. The only downside I see there is the VERY high HOA fees of around $450 per month plus Mello Roos on most of the houses are about $5,000+ per year. Besides that do you see any other negatives? It looks like a nice gated community.
Also, I'd be curious if anyone knows why there are always so many houses for sale on Caminito Lazanja in Santaluz? I've consistently seen many houses for sale on that street. I was just curious if there was any particular reason why? Anyone know that street well there?
Thanks.
To my knowledge, compared to Carmel Valley, Santaluz really has a lot more going for it than that area, relatively speaking in a dollar/sq ft value.
However.....one of the reasons you are seeing some crazy pricing variances, is that bing or google maps dont show you the massive POWER LINES that plow through the area. This is the case throughout Carlsbad, "new" Poway and and other areas where there is construction in the newer suburbs.
IMHO, over the long run, no matter how you try to look at it, ROI will always be a bigger question mark for living under power lines. This isnt because I am some conspiracy theorist regarding cancer clusters etc, but simply because I believe that a buyer will pass up on that house based on that premise, should you choose to sell it in the future.
There is a gargantuan power line outside of my office in Scripps Ranch and when its overcast or rainy, the electro buzzing that emanates from that thing just doesnt hit the right chord in me.
No specific problems to Caminito Lazanja except that it's one of the longer streets in the area with a lot of homes. The whole area around Caminito Lazanja was built during the height of the bubble. There were waiting lists to buy homes. Lots of highly-leveraged mortgages. A single speculator would commonly agree to buy multiple homes in that area and not spend a nickel for down payments. Those speculators that flipped a year or two later made a nice profit. Others were not so lucky. That area will be in a contant flux for years to come.
Thanks for that great information. I always try to look on Google Maps for power lines and most times can see it but that's good to know. I've been trying not to hassle/bother my realtor or the listing realtor as we aren't heading in the area again until May but I really like doing a lot of due diligence on the front end. So this advice is really great.
Cruitr - yeah I figured that was the case with highly leveraged mortgages. But I didn't know if there was something else that only locals would know and I doubt a realtor will point it out. There must have been huge amounts of speculators on that street. I always see lots for sale on that street.
I buy property reports on Myfico.com and I can see what a buyer originally put down but to my knowledge there is no easy way to find out if the buyer took out a home equity line or pulled equity out. Anyone know if there is any way to pull this information?
Thanks for that great information. I always try to look on Google Maps for power lines and most times can see it but that's good to know. I've been trying not to hassle/bother my realtor or the listing realtor as we aren't heading in the area again until May but I really like doing a lot of due diligence on the front end. So this advice is really great.
Cruitr - yeah I figured that was the case with highly leveraged mortgages. But I didn't know if there was something else that only locals would know and I doubt a realtor will point it out. There must have been huge amounts of speculators on that street. I always see lots for sale on that street.
I buy property reports on Myfico.com and I can see what a buyer originally put down but to my knowledge there is no easy way to find out if the buyer took out a home equity line or pulled equity out. Anyone know if there is any way to pull this information?
Thanks for the excellent advice guys.
Thats really interesting, I had no idea info like that would be available as its between two private parties. This peaks my curiosity as the only public information that should be published are tax information and title history, sold price...but not down payment.
The only time see info about Equity LOCs is when a house has been foreclosed on or trying to sell before foreclosing to make up for whatever debt is still owed (mortgage + LOCs). But even this is not transparent, it requires reading between the lines.
Any form of 2nd mortgage usually includes a lien against the property. You can check those liens with the county but I'm not sure if that info is available online.
Yeah Shmoov! It's really great. Most people don't know you can find this information out. I've been buying Myfico.com property reports for a while and they are great. It's cheaper if you buy the option where you can buy multiple reports (5 reports is $14.95). You have I think 60 days to use them. Then once you buy them, you can download a PDF of it. They are super helpful when evaluating properties.
Last Sale
Recording Date 06/16/2006 Document # 2006-0428572
Price $1,070,000 Document Type Grant Deed
First TD $802,500 Type of Sale Full-Computed from Transfer Tax
Lender Name WASHINGTON MUTUAL BANK FA
So you can see this buyer put down a 25% down payment. (Unless they also took a 2nd and it's not listed here...I still don't know if these reports only list the primary or if the secondary is also listed). It wasn't a situation of someone buying no money or very low amount down. This person seemed to be responsible but just bought at the wrong time. The property has a low list price of $999,000 but I've seen many other properties in that area sitting on the market for a long time. Some as long as 1 year when you count the list/re-list/ de-list then re-list.
Prior Sale
Recording Date 11/24/2003 Document # 2003-1406813
Price $828,000 Document Type Grant Deed
First TD $662,063 Type of Sale Full-Computed from Transfer Tax
Lender Name GENESIS MORTGAGE CORP
Population
In ZIP code 92127 National
2000 16,928 281,411,751
2001 17,529 285,401,915
2006 20,011 302,182,821
Growth Rate 2.7% 0.7%
Growth Centile 89% 51.4%
Households
In ZIP code 92127 National
2000 5,902 105,475,618
2001 6,141 107,074,756
2006 7,097 113,732,265
Household Growth Rate 3% 0.9%
Average Household Size 2.8 3.0
Families
In ZIP code 92127 National
2000 4,430 71,784,668
2006 5,228 76,681,689
Household Growth Rate 2.7% 1.0%
Age Distribution
In ZIP code 92127 National
0-4 6.8% 6.1%
5-9 8.9% 6.8%
10-14 9.3% 7.5%
15-19 7% 7.3%
20-24 4.6% 6.2%
25-44 32.3% 28.0%
45-64 20.4% 24.4%
65-84 7.6% 12.1%
85+ 3.1% 1.6%
Median Age
In ZIP code 92127 National
2001 35.4 37.9
Male/Female Ratio 48.1%/51.9% 50.0%/50.0%
Median Household Income
In ZIP code 92127 National
2001 $82,750.00 $37,790.00
2006 $94,639.00 $42,589.00
Per Capita Income $37,289.00 $18,351.29
Household Income Centile
In ZIP code 92127 National
National 98.0% 50.0%
State 95.0% 50.1%
School district: POWAY UNIFIED
13626 Twin Peaks Rd.
Poway , CA 92064-3034
TEL: 858-679-2550
Grade Span KG-12
Pupil Teacher Ratio 21.5:1
Total Enrollment 32,754
Number of High School Graduates 2,230
Number of Teachers 458
Number of Teacher Aids 375
Number of Guidance Counselors 40
Number of School Administrators 54
Number of Schools 30
City Crime Stats - SAN DIEGO
Murder: 59
Rape: 296
Robbery: 2,095
Aggravated Assault: 3,882
Burglary: 7,679
Motor Vehicle Theft: 13,224
Larceny (Theft): 23,264
Arson: 200
Total Crimes: 50,699
Physical Characteristics
Living Area 3,342 SQ. FT.
Year Built 2003
Bedrooms 4
Baths 3.5
Garage Yes
Cars 3
County Assessed Values
Land Value $512,000
Improvement $488,000
Total Assessed Value $1,000,000
Parcel Number (APN) 303-190-36-00
Property Type: Single Family Residential
Last Sale
Recording Date 09/07/2007 Document # 2007-0590885
Price $1,170,000 Document Type Grant Deed
First TD $936,000 Type of Sale Full-Computed from Transfer Tax
Lender Name WELLS FARGO BANK NA
Prior Sale
Recording Date 02/12/2003 Document # 2003-0163648
Price $693,500 Document Type Grant Deed
First TD $450,000 Type of Sale Full-Computed from Transfer Tax
Lender Name COUNTRYWIDE HOME LOANS INC
They also REALLY bought at the wrong time during the bubble years. Their realtor said "the first and the second have approved a short-sale at $882,000". So obviously it looks like they took a 2nd loan out or pulled equity out of the house.
Where it looks like they put down a larger $500,000 down payment.
Physical Characteristics
Living Area 3,570 SQ. FT.
Year Built 2003
Bedrooms 4
Baths 5
Garage Yes
Cars 3
County Assessed Values
Land Value $423,000
Improvement $777,000
Total Assessed Value $1,200,000
Parcel Number (APN) 303-131-09-00
Property Type: Single Family Residential
Last Sale
Recording Date 09/01/2005 Document # 2005-0756410
Price $1,189,000 Document Type Grant Deed
First TD $500,000 Type of Sale Full-Computed from Transfer Tax
Lender Name WELLS FARGO BANK NA
Prior Sale
Recording Date 06/24/2003 Document # 2003-0746274
Price $719,500 Document Type Grant Deed
First TD $575,200 Type of Sale Full-Computed from Transfer Tax
Lender Name INDYMAC BANK FSB
Last edited by earlyretirement; 02-24-2011 at 11:00 AM..
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