San Diego Housing Market Downturn? (2013, mortgage, houses)

[djxpress]

I'd like some thoughts and opinions? The market has increased significantly over the past couple of years. Are we in a mini-bubble that's bound to burst?

[kettlepot]

We had a strong bounce off of the bottom in 2012 and 2013, but that surge in housing prices has already come to end. Prices haven't risen much at all in the past 6 to 9 months. The rise ended well short of bubble territory. However, the easy money is gone.

[Cardiff Kook]

I don't think so. Market just corrected itself from the rock bottom prices that we saw from 2010-2012. If you bought during that time you probably already have at least 30% or more equity in your house

[shmoov_groovzsd]

Originally Posted by GMUAlum08

I don't think so. Market just corrected itself from the rock bottom prices that we saw from 2010-2012. If you bought during that time you probably already have at least 30% or more equity in your house

Yup. We bought two houses in that time frame and no question, looking back now, that was bottom and the fake equity from comps is pretty amazing. We will likely never sell these houses but back then, if you followed the news, it sounded like the end of the world was coming. Which to me meant opt. And we are very thankful that we were ready to buy when we were.

In regards to now, things are flattening a bit in most desirable areas. On the flip side, in my hood I am seeing houses still smoking hot for not so great properties. It's definitely pushing things up. So I am getting a feeling of desperation playing a part below 400kish mark.

Djxpress, you have been full speed ahead with looking for property and asking lots of questions on the board I noticed. I think it's great you are doing your due diligence. My general advice is to not buy when everyone else is if you can.
Hold off until after the summer and see what is out there. It seems like there is borderline panic buying going on. If you are pushing your budget as is, it's very likely a losers game if people are outbidding you.
From the locations, you seem to be all over the map and it sounds like you are making significant compromises for areas you never would have considered before. Thinking objectively based on that, how do you feel about making those compromises? 6 months from now will you have buyers remorse because you got caught up in the hype?

[Cardiff Kook]

Interest rates have actually gone down since I locked in my rate in February (unfortunate for me). I think if the rates are going to continue to stay this low for the foreseeable future you are going to have a lot of people continuing to look to buy

[Encinitan]

Originally Posted by GMUAlum08

I don't think so. Market just corrected itself from the rock bottom prices that we saw from 2010-2012. If you bought during that time you probably already have at least 30% or more equity in your house

We bought our first place in 1999, sold it in 2007, then rented for a year while things shook out and bought our current place in 2008. We're doing ok.
As for the OP, I don't see the rocket-propelled (and ultimately faulty) equity growth we saw in the early 2000s going on now, so for now, no I wouldn't call it a "mini bubble." In my neighborhood, we're seeing decent growth in value but nothing crazy.

[ShelbyGirl1]

Our home, bought in Feb of 2012, has increased in value. As the homes in our area.

[shmoov_groovzsd]

Originally Posted by GMUAlum08

Interest rates have actually gone down since I locked in my rate in February (unfortunate for me). I think if the rates are going to continue to stay this low for the foreseeable future you are going to have a lot of people continuing to look to buy

I disagree with this a little. I have not seen much growth in the job sector and I mean high paying jobs. The kind of jobs that afford more more desirable area with two incomes.

A client of mine is likely shutting down their entire office by years end due to massive global layoffs from their Nokia acquisition. That right there is hundreds of ~ 6 figure plus jobs.
Its not like they are replacing anyone in that office either nor are there jobs waiting for them in San Diego. An entire pool of talent with nowhere to go except outside of SD and a half million dollar+ mortgage to continue paying.

There certainly arent any companies here to replace them either as they are leaving to head up north.

Low rates are only as good the demand and wages to pay for them. I am getting the feeling that a large majority of this pool of buyers have made their purchases already within the past few years.

[Cardiff Kook]

Originally Posted by shmoov_groovzsd

I disagree with this a little. I have not seen much growth in the job sector and I mean high paying jobs. The kind of jobs that afford more more desirable area with two incomes.

A client of mine is likely shutting down their entire office by years end due to massive global layoffs from their Nokia acquisition. That right there is hundreds of ~ 6 figure plus jobs.
Its not like they are replacing anyone in that office either nor are there jobs waiting for them in San Diego. An entire pool of talent with nowhere to go except outside of SD and a half million dollar+ mortgage to continue paying.

There certainly arent any companies here to replace them either as they are leaving to head up north.

Low rates are only as good the demand and wages to pay for them. I am getting the feeling that a large majority of this pool of buyers have made their purchases already within the past few years.

I understand what you are saying but San Diego is always going to be one of the most desirable places in the country to live regardless. Interest rates staying low is just going to continue to fuel the housing market and keep inventory low

[futbol]

Originally Posted by shmoov_groovzsd

I disagree with this a little. I have not seen much growth in the job sector and I mean high paying jobs. The kind of jobs that afford more more desirable area with two incomes.

A client of mine is likely shutting down their entire office by years end due to massive global layoffs from their Nokia acquisition. That right there is hundreds of ~ 6 figure plus jobs.
Its not like they are replacing anyone in that office either nor are there jobs waiting for them in San Diego. An entire pool of talent with nowhere to go except outside of SD and a half million dollar+ mortgage to continue paying.

There certainly arent any companies here to replace them either as they are leaving to head up north.

Low rates are only as good the demand and wages to pay for them. I am getting the feeling that a large majority of this pool of buyers have made their purchases already within the past few years.

I was over near that office yesterday and noticed that the parking lot is much more empty. Maybe as many as half the cars that used to fill it are now gone.