Housing Values May Drop Over 50% In Silicon Valley (San Jose, San Mateo: condo, credit score)

[phantompilot]

Originally Posted by JohnSoCal

The unemployment rate for San Jose/Sunnyvale/Santa Clara has been dropping every month since January.

January: 3.7%
February: 3.6%
March: 3.5%
April: 3.2%

These are the official rates from the BLS. April is the last month listed.

I have been hearing the same old gloom and doom BS that the sky is falling for the last 40 years. Silicon Valley is doing just fine.

You forgot the last two crashes already?

You know all this stuff is cyclical, right?

[JohnSoCal]

Originally Posted by phantompilot

You forgot the last two crashes already?

You know all this stuff is cyclical, right?

I went through the crashes in SV and it always came back. SV is not unique in this regard. Actually my best year was 2001 in SV when I made $475,000 as a software contractor. We bought a new home in the Bay area in 2000 and sold it in 2002 for 30% more than we paid for it.

As I said, I have heard these same old gloom and doom BS about SV for the past 40 years.

[phantompilot]

Originally Posted by JohnSoCal

I went through the crashes in SV and it always came back. SV is not unique in this regard. Actually my best year was 2001 in SV when I made $475,000 as a software contractor. We bought a new home in the Bay area in 2000 and sold it in 2002 for 30% more than we paid for it.

As I said, I have heard these same old gloom and doom BS about SV for the past 40 years.

It just seems like you're contradicting yourself then. The next crash is about due.

And it seems you have also admitted your best days are already behind you. Or best year, from an earnings perspective. Because those days are never coming back. Its like the gold rush.

[bobby_guz_man]

Originally Posted by phantompilot

It just seems like you're contradicting yourself then. The next crash is about due.

He is not contradicting. He is merely stating that after crashes, there will be booms that will let pricing recover and then shoot above the previous boom. It's been that way for decades in this area, boom, bust, boom, bust, prices always move higher and higher.

So yes, the next crash maybe about due. But guess what, so is the next boom that will come after that next crash.

Some of you are acting like the crash is going to reverse the entire housing dynamics here in the Bay Area. Last I checked, even the Great Recession that affected the entire world only brought home prices down 30-40% in the Bay, and it is now already way past the prices before the Great Recession. That 50% drop you're looking for comes once every 60 years or so, ie they're pretty RARE.

And it seems you have also admitted your best days are already behind you. Or best year, from an earnings perspective. Because those days are never coming back. Its like the gold rush.

He didn't admit anything. He merely pointed out that he has seen booms and busts come and go. What's with the snide personal attack? Get atta here with that ****.

[JohnSoCal]

Originally Posted by bobby_guz_man

He is not contradicting. He is merely stating that after crashes, there will be booms that will let pricing recover and then shoot above the previous boom. It's been that way for decades in this area, boom, bust, boom, bust, prices always move higher and higher.

So yes, the next crash maybe about due. But guess what, so is the next boom that will come after that next crash.

Some of you are acting like the crash is going to reverse the entire housing dynamics here in the Bay Area. Last I checked, even the Great Recession that affected the entire world only brought home prices down 30-40% in the Bay, and it is now already way past the prices before the Great Recession. That 50% drop you're looking for comes once every 60 years or so, ie they're pretty RARE.


He didn't admit anything. He merely pointed out that he has seen booms and busts come and go. What's with the snide personal attack? Get atta here with that ****.

You are absolutely correct. Excellent post.

[calicoastal]

Prices are up nearly 18% in some parts of the Bay Area vs. last year:

http://ww4.hdnux.com/photos/62/06/76...5/920x1240.jpg

...and this is after prices skyrocketed from 2012-2016. The doom-and-gloomers who didn't buy last year pretty much just lost the amount of a down payment. If you put $200k down on a $1 million house last year, and the house value went up 20%, you just doubled your money ($400k equity from a $200k down payment).

Be careful whose advice you take. Even people who bought at the very peak of the last bubble are way ahead now in most areas.

[tehsquishmeister]

Eh, it's 7.1%. 18% is the number sold. Re-read the image you're linking.

[JohnSoCal]

Originally Posted by tehsquishmeister

Eh, it's 7.1%. 18% is the number sold. Re-read the image you're linking.

You are right but 7.1% is still a pretty hefty increase by historical standards.

[phantompilot]

Originally Posted by calicoastal

Prices are up nearly 18% in some parts of the Bay Area vs. last year:

http://ww4.hdnux.com/photos/62/06/76...5/920x1240.jpg

...and this is after prices skyrocketed from 2012-2016. The doom-and-gloomers who didn't buy last year pretty much just lost the amount of a down payment. If you put $200k down on a $1 million house last year, and the house value went up 20%, you just doubled your money ($400k equity from a $200k down payment).

Be careful whose advice you take. Even people who bought at the very peak of the last bubble are way ahead now in most areas.

Except for the fact that real estate doesn't really even keep up with inflation except in these really bubbly areas that have tripled or doubled over the last 10 years.

You're talking about timing the market which is basically impossible to do.

If you just buy and hold on a long term basis you could come out ahead, of course, but that's not really an "investment". You're just hoping things turn out well so that when you do sell, which you haven't planned, it just happens to be at a peak instead of a valley.

This is one reason that most people never make any money at real estate. They don't treat it like an investment, because for most people it isn't - its just a place to live in.

Now if you were renting it out, actually managing it as an investment, its even more difficult to get your money out of Silicon Valley real estate, unless as mentioned you can get into one of these bubbly areas and ride that wave to a peak then hop off before it crashes.

Because for the most part you can't make any profit just buying a property and renting it out.

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by phantompilot

Except for the fact that real estate doesn't really even keep up with inflation except in these really bubbly areas that have tripled or doubled over the last 10 years.

You're talking about timing the market which is basically impossible to do.

If you just buy and hold on a long term basis you could come out ahead, of course, but that's not really an "investment". You're just hoping things turn out well so that when you do sell, which you haven't planned, it just happens to be at a peak instead of a valley.

This is one reason that most people never make any money at real estate. They don't treat it like an investment, because for most people it isn't - its just a place to live in.

Now if you were renting it out, actually managing it as an investment, its even more difficult to get your money out of Silicon Valley real estate, unless as mentioned you can get into one of these bubbly areas and ride that wave to a peak then hop off before it crashes.

Because for the most part you can't make any profit just buying a property and renting it out.

Since 1995 they've far outperformed inflation.