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How do you figure that? See posts 162, 177 and 179 concerning fracking and the Bakken. Just for starters. The little blip caused by tight oil in the U.S. oil production stats is more than offset by the declining oil production elsewhere in the world.
I figure that the socioeconomic doom forecast by the peak oil crowd has been burst.
Ummmm, you looked out your window lately at the number of people lined up at your local food pantry? Or checked the price of oil? Despite all the happy talk about the Bakken and fracking in general, oil and gasoline prices have not come down. Nor has unemployment, underemployment, the percentage of population currently unemployed, etc etc etc. We are inside the economic malaise that accompanies the end of cheap oil.
This may be a really naive question, but weren't most of those nuclear plants that were built around 35 years ago or so, supposed to be retired after 30? Or so?
They need a license to operate and when then the license expires they can renew but it's not just matter of filling out some paper work.
The Atomic Energy Act and NRC regulations limit commercial power reactor licenses to an initial 40 years but also permit such licenses to be renewed. This original 40-year term for reactor licenses was based on economic and antitrust considerations -- not on limitations of nuclear technology. Due to this selected period, however, some structures and components may have been engineered on the basis of an expected 40-year service life.
While oil shale is found in many places worldwide, by far the largest deposits in the world are found in the United States in the Green River Formation, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Estimates of the oil resource in place within the Green River Formation range from 1.2 to 1.8 trillion barrels. Not all resources in place are recoverable; however, even a moderate estimate of 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil from oil shale in the Green River Formation is three times greater than the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. Present U.S. demand for petroleum products is about 20 million barrels per day. If oil shale could be used to meet a quarter of that demand, the estimated 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil from the Green River Formation would last for more than 400 years1.
More than 70% of the total oil shale acreage in the Green River Formation, including the richest and thickest oil shale deposits, is under federally owned and managed lands. Thus, the federal government directly controls access to the most commercially attractive portions of the oil shale resource base.
I figure that the socioeconomic doom forecast by the peak oil crowd has been burst.
Skoro, I don't buy into the doom and gloom predictions and look at it as good thing. Peak Oil predictions are a steep decline but that will be buffered by other resources like coal to liquid fuel and oil shale. As the cost of oil rises whether it's conventional oil or oil from coal then and only then will the private sector truly begin to invest in new resources of energy. Exxon isn't goin to sit on their ass and watch their multi-billion dollar business evaporate.
While oil shale is found in many places worldwide, by far the largest deposits in the world are found in the United States in the Green River Formation, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Estimates of the oil resource in place within the Green River Formation range from 1.2 to 1.8 trillion barrels. Not all resources in place are recoverable; however, even a moderate estimate of 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil from oil shale in the Green River Formation is three times greater than the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. Present U.S. demand for petroleum products is about 20 million barrels per day. If oil shale could be used to meet a quarter of that demand, the estimated 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil from the Green River Formation would last for more than 400 years1.
More than 70% of the total oil shale acreage in the Green River Formation, including the richest and thickest oil shale deposits, is under federally owned and managed lands. Thus, the federal government directly controls access to the most commercially attractive portions of the oil shale resource base.
From Post #181
Quote:
"Oil shale" refers to the kerogen deposits in Colorado that were supposed to be our national saviour back in the 1970s and '80s. I remember the happy talk very clearly, how oil shale would become economical to extract as soon as oil hit $10 a barrel, then $20 a barrel, then $40 ... and it never happened. The problem is that oil shale requires more energy to extract and process than it gives up when used, what's called a negative "energy returned on energy invested." It's like investing $10 and only getting $9 in return.
Oil shale is a misnomer. It's actually kerogen, which is a sort of proto-oil that still needs a few million years of heat and pressure to become conventional crude. It requires extensive processing before becoming something that can be turned into a useful petroleum product, a major reason why it has a negative EROEI. Barring a major technological breakthrough that has escaped researchers over the previous 40 years, oil shale will remain in the ground and pretty much useless.
Skoro, I don't buy into the doom and gloom predictions and look at it as good thing. Peak Oil predictions are a steep decline but that will be buffered by other resources like coal to liquid fuel and oil shale. As the cost of oil rises whether it's conventional oil or oil from coal then and only then will the private sector truly begin to invest in new resources of energy. Exxon isn't goin to sit on their ass and watch their multi-billion dollar business evaporate.
Where do you see the "steep decline" predictions? I've been involved with peak oil for more than 15 years now, and the only people I've seen predicting sudden collapse are the professional doom and gloomers who are selling survival gear and books. In terms of absolute supply, the back side on the Hubbert Curve should pretty much match the upslope, unless the supply shortfalls set off a new series of resource wars. I'm far more worried about the economic impacts. We live in a global economy and a culture that is based on readily available and cheap petroleum. The transition to expensive energy and oil shortages has not and will not be pretty IMO.
BTW coal to liquid suffers from the same negative EROEI that oil shale has. That's why it was used only as a desperation measure by the Nazis during World War II and South Africa during apartheid.
I'm far more worried about the economic impacts. We live in a global economy and a culture that is based on readily available and cheap petroleum. The transition to expensive energy and oil shortages has not and will not be pretty IMO.
Id guess the effect will be inflationary, as the cost of expensive oil echoes through the economy. Oil is used in nearly everything (inlcuding things mundane as plastic bags), not just transportation.
Wouldn't there be sort of a feedback loop as economic impacts of high oil leads to economic slowdowns and stagnation..... cause less demand?
Id guess the effect will be inflationary, as the cost of expensive oil echoes through the economy. Oil is used in nearly everything (inlcuding things mundane as plastic bags), not just transportation.
Wouldn't there be sort of a feedback loop as economic impacts of high oil leads to economic slowdowns and stagnation..... cause less demand?
Exactly. We're seeing the "less demand" side of the economic slowdown already. Oil consumption in the U.S. has dropped by ~2 million bpd since the Great Recession began in 2009. The problem is that each time the economy tries to improve, nationally or internationally, the increased demand pushes the price of oil up, which stifles economic progress. Expensive oil is acting as a brake on the economy, a major reason (IMHO THE major reason) the efforts of the Federal Reserve to jumpstart the economy have failed miserably despite printing trillions of dollars out of thin air and keeping interest rates near zero.
IOW we're already inside the declining economy that peak oilers were predicting 10 years ago. The U.S. economy was built on $3 oil (yes, oil was really $3 a barrel only 40 years ago), and it's suffering with $110 oil.
ETA: I don't usually make short-term predictions, but if the balloon well and truly goes up in Syria with multinational involvement and the potential for the conflict spreading to nearby nations, oil prices will skyrocket, at least temporarily. Anyone who has the ability to put a little gasoline in storage -- those old 5-gallon gas cans in the garage, for example -- would be well advised to fill them soon.
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