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Thanks for your opinions definitely appreciated. I'm digesting what you said now. I tried to rep you but it won't let me.
In your opinion or best guess when does it implode?
JMO, but structurally the implosion has already begun. You can see this in commodity prices now. There is always a lag until it hits the consumer but I would be surprised if we didn't see that by mid-year. There are too many unknown variables to put these things on a timeline. Every "stimulus" package they pass will throw gas on the fire. Things will appear to melt up before the system melts down. There is still time to prepare. 2021 could be a red-hot economy. When the government starts trying to initiate things like price controls, it's a serious warning sign. We are already seeing this with eviction and foreclosure moratoriums. They are putting the band aids on so fast most people can't see the festering wound any more. How are they going to deal with an end to eviction moratoriums when people can't pay the back rent? Is there going to be an end? I have no idea, there is no way to plot this on a time graph.
JMO, but structurally the implosion has already begun. You can see this in commodity prices now. There is always a lag until it hits the consumer but I would be surprised if we didn't see that by mid-year. There are too many unknown variables to put these things on a timeline. Every "stimulus" package they pass will throw gas on the fire. Things will appear to melt up before the system melts down. There is still time to prepare. 2021 could be a red-hot economy. When the government starts trying to initiate things like price controls, it's a serious warning sign. We are already seeing this with eviction and foreclosure moratoriums. They are putting the band aids on so fast most people can't see the festering wound any more. How are they going to deal with an end to eviction moratoriums when people can't pay the back rent? Is there going to be an end? I have no idea, there is no way to plot this on a time graph.
Some solid points. I hadn't even considered the eviction moratoriums as it has no effect on me but that's real and it's happening. There are certainly going to be unintended consequences just like everything else the government does.
Speaking of it looks like we are well on our way to making another 2 TRILLION dollars appear out of thin air
Sorry, I fat-fingered that. I meant September 2019.
That is when banks stopped lending to each other to meet reserve cash requirements and the Federal Reserve became the primary lender by financing all the repurchasing agreements. That is when they had to open the firehose of liquidity. They did this because the overnight lending rate jumped to 10% and showed no signs of stopping the climb until it seized up the economy. They were targeting a rate closer to zero.
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The only unknown is where exactly we are at on the chart, but it's growing exponentially, so by the time it is apparent that we are screwed, it will be over very fast.
September 2019 is a date range that is pretty specific and correlates to a specific event, but less specifically, one could argue the end started when the FED tried normalizing the rates in 2016 and it almost collapsed the economy. ...
Sept 2019 makes a lot of sense, although the things you mention, to me, were still cocking the hammer further back (more than necessary) and the trigger release was an event late last year, or early this year, depending on how you look at it. Either way, the hammer is falling.
Quote:
Originally Posted by terracore
Another thing that deserves to be pointed out, is the fabricated notion that the debt is somehow going to be repaid. It can't be repaid. People throw the word "trillion" around with little idea how much a trillion is. It's a number too large for the human brain to comprehend without a comparison.
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Because of my background in Cryptography, I am extremely adept at dealing with large (and even multidimensional) numbers. And You Are Spot On. Those in power no longer even discuss (unless it is simply to jerk off the public) repaying the debt. That ship sailed in 2008. Now we are looking at not even keeping up with the interest on it. The interest payments each year will soon be more than what can be repaid. (More, available by DM only.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by drinkthekoolaid
@terracore
Thanks for your opinions definitely appreciated. I'm digesting what you said now. I tried to rep you but it won't let me.
In your opinion or best guess when does it implode?
As I have pointed out, the hammer is falling. Just like the events leading to the trigger trip, the end will not be a well defined moment, and it won't happen the way it did in the novel, unless there is some black swan event like a solar flare or nuclear detonation. My estimate is that our way of life will be in the dust bin, within about six year. In the interim, life will simply get harder, year by year, for those of us who try to make an honest living, to feed our families (and others).
There are three more paragraphs to this answer, but they would be deemed political, so, even though the shifting sands of politics is something I prep for, those three paragraphs are available by DM only.
Sept 2019 makes a lot of sense, although the things you mention, to me, were still cocking the hammer further back (more than necessary) and the trigger release was an event late last year, or early this year, depending on how you look at it. Either way, the hammer is falling.
Because of my background in Cryptography, I am extremely adept at dealing with large (and even multidimensional) numbers. And You Are Spot On. Those in power no longer even discuss (unless it is simply to jerk off the public) repaying the debt. That ship sailed in 2008. Now we are looking at not even keeping up with the interest on it. The interest payments each year will soon be more than what can be repaid. (More, available by DM only.)
As I have pointed out, the hammer is falling. Just like the events leading to the trigger trip, the end will not be a well defined moment, and it won't happen the way it did in the novel, unless there is some black swan event like a solar flare or nuclear detonation. My estimate is that our way of life will be in the dust bin, within about six year. In the interim, life will simply get harder, year by year, for those of us who try to make an honest living, to feed our families (and others).
There are three more paragraphs to this answer, but they would be deemed political, so, even though the shifting sands of politics is something I prep for, those three paragraphs are available by DM only.
"those three paragraphs are available by DM only."
I have room in my DM box for 3 paragraphs.
"Those in power no longer even discuss (unless it is simply to jerk off the public) repaying the debt. That ship sailed in 2008."
I would argue that it sailed in 1992. George HW "Read my lips" Bush and Newt Gingrich made the last effort to balance the budget. HW knew this could only be done by cutting entitlements, and his plan was to privatize social security. The first part of the plan (trimming spending and raising taxes) handed Clinton a "balanced budget" that wasn't really balanced. By fudging the accounting rules they made it look like the budget was balanced, but they were still accruing 1/2 trillion per year in unfunded liabilities. When HW wasn't re-elected the concept of privatizing social security died on the vine and so did the idea of a balanced budget. Politicians talked about balancing the budget for years, but that's all it was- talk.
I don't know the current state of tax receipts but a few years ago they only generated enough money to fund the military and medicare. Everything else is paid for by borrowing the money into existence. Any talk of balancing the budget has been replaced by "modern monetary theory" which is just a term to put lipstick on the socialism / communism pig.
The mainstream media controls the narrative. When they start publishing things like this it usually means that they are programming the population to accept their fate. But their narrative is made of half-truths and lies. I predict that they will blame the inflation on rising commodity prices. High inflation doesn't happen because commodities increase in price, it happens because the value of the currency falls, the depreciating currency causes the commodity prices to rise, but under high inflation the prices rise unequally across the supply chain. Wheat is currently trading at about $245 a metric ton. That translates to about 7 cents worth of wheat in a loaf of bread. In a non-inflationary environment if the price of the wheat doubles, the price of the bread can go up 7 cents, the loaf doesn't double in price. When the price of a loaf of bread does double, and it will, they will lie and say it's because of the price of wheat. Doubling the wheat price may cause famine and revolutions where the population lives on $2/day, but here the stores probably wouldn't even raise the price of the loaf, they would take some other action like not running sales on bread.
So when the price of a loaf doubles, look at the cost of wheat. If it goes up 1500% then yeah maybe rising commodity prices were leading inflation. If it only doubled or tripled or whatever, then you know the currency is quickly losing it's value. The Federal Reserve Note commonly referred to as a "dollar" was created in 1913. If you compare what a dollar buys today compared to what it bought 108 years ago, you can extrapolate that the dollar has lost 96% of it's value. The closer it gets to 100% the faster the value drops. At least, that's how every other fiat monetary system has ended. But don't worry, the media says "It's different this time". The last time we had runaway inflation they were able to bring it back under control by raising interest rates. In 1981 the mortgage rates were almost 19%! Obviously with us sitting on a debt bomb there is no way they can raise rates like that again.
"those three paragraphs are available by DM only."
I have room in my DM box for 3 paragraphs.
"Those in power no longer even discuss (unless it is simply to jerk off the public) repaying the debt. That ship sailed in 2008."
I would argue that it sailed in 1992.
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Politicians talked about balancing the budget for years, but that's all it was- talk.
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DM's have been sent to you and DTKA. Nothing astonishing in them, just stuff that might be a bit too politically oriented for the SS&P forum.
I agree that the possibility of actually paying down the debt was lost cause after 1992, but my point was that I haven't even heard anyone seriously discuss it, since 2008. There was a few noises made pre-election in 2012, but that was never even remotely serious.
Quote:
Originally Posted by terracore
The mainstream media controls the narrative. When they start publishing things like this it usually means that they are programming the population to ...
I have to disagree with a couple points here. The MSM lost control of this narrative, and they were publishing for CYA purposes. This guy has a good track record and he already published in his "private" news letter. They have to have a cover, just in case he is right, but the tone of the first couple of paragraphs tell me they don't believe him.
I disagree a bit on the inflation thing too, but maybe you are just simplifying for posting here. I too, would love to discuss this at length, but I would also like to hit the "submit" button before the end of the day
Even with news of a 2T stimulus the stock market is not having a good week.
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