Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Six pages of posts and everybody seems to have missed the right answer--"As long as the govt contracts, tax breaks and subsides keep coming."...
Notice that Musk doesn't get involved in anything that doesn't have that built in profit safety net under it.
Yea, they've definitely used the incentives pretty well though the federal tax rebate for consumers in the US are gone for them (there are still some state ones and of course the general jobs incentives package soliciting that is so pernicious in the US that so many large companies use to their advantages). China's EV incentives have another two years or so to go and there's a chance they disappear or are much reduced after that. I'm not sure how the various European countries will go. They've certainly rolled out some massive incentives of late, but I can't see that generosity being extended past the next few years. Of course, none of those are Tesla specific, but since Tesla makes EVs specifically, they matter much more for them. It'll be interesting to see when batteries actually get down to the $100 per kWh price point that supposedly makes them price competitive almost across the board and when that hits in relation to various tax breaks and subsidies expiring. At the very least, it looks pretty unlikely that Tesla will go under in the next couple of years due to the various incentives, and it's not impossible that Tesla survives well beyond the phase out of EV-specific incentives which means your answer probably isn't a particularly solid one.
I think one point to mention is that since these subsidies and tax breaks aren't for the most part Tesla-specific, other companies could take advantage of them and Tesla is/was far from the only EV startup in the US and elsewhere. While it makes sense that a lot of the established automakers tip-toe'd into those incentives packages since they'd essentially be cannibalizing their own sales as people cross-shop among vehicles, there are and were many new attempted entries into the automotive industry. Many EV startups in the US gave things a go and didn't quite make it or at least haven't yet made it. The EV automaker graveyard (either completely defunct or acquired) is pretty big and I'd expect it to grow larger.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 08-31-2020 at 07:47 AM..
Tesla will be at a production rate of 1 million cars / year by the end of this year. Growing over 50% for the next few years too.
Will be at 2 million cars / year rate in 2 years from now.
Valued at $400 billion+. Now sure that may not stay there, but the haters' valuation is essentially like < $10 billion.
I mean your idea of the company is an order (or 2) magnitude away from the valuation given by the market.
This is not retail investors driving this.
How could you not possibly question your evaluation at this point? LOL
Tesla will be at a production rate of 1 million cars / year by the end of this year. Growing over 50% for the next few years too.
Will be at 2 million cars / year rate in 2 years from now.
Valued at $400 billion+. Now sure that may not stay there, but the haters' valuation is essentially like < $10 billion.
I mean your idea of the company is an order (or 2) magnitude away from the valuation given by the market.
This is not retail investors driving this.
How could you not possibly question your evaluation at this point? LOL
You seem to be falling for the same trap every other bubble’s participants have fallen for throughout history. “Forget fundamentals, growth will double every year forever, and market value must be real because everybody else agrees”. That’s what everybody says right before it pops and everybody suddenly finds out it’s really worth nothing.
That typically only becomes a causality of the investors themselves, but when you’re living in credit backed by an overhyped stock price, things can get out of control quickly. As market share drops as it gets split between competitors, companies can find themselves with too much production capacity then find they have to sell the factory for pennies on the dollar. You tend to get giddy about arbitrary inflated market caps, but what you don’t realize, at no point is Tesla ever going to be “out of the woods”. It’s always at risk of collapsing as it’s biggest asset is an artificially inflated share price that can disappear at anytime.
One trend Tesla fans seem to be blinded by, is the fact that Tesla’s registrations seem to mysteriously drop in tandem with incentives. Hence despite a global rollout Tesla’s deliveries per quarter is around 90k units which is exactly what it was back in 2nd quarter of 2018. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...le-deliveries/
Despite the echo chamber hype you seem to only get your news from, Tesla’s deliveries aren’t really all that impressive, growth appears to be leveled off even as they move into new markets, registrations are dropping in existing markets, and their valuation is even far higher than Elon admits it should be.
Do you even know why it’s price has run up lately? It’s because they’re splitting their stock? Any ideas as to why one would want to make their stock more affordable?
I can see someone questioning if Tesla stock is overvalued today. But at this point, questioning if they are on the edge of bankruptcy, is silly. They're doing extremely well. It's not clear if anyone else can make money selling EVs - a top executive at Toyota said that himself, but Tesla? Yeah, they're doing okay.
The EV market is red-hot globally, led by Europe (relative to lowering carbon dioxide emissions) and China. Analysts forecast global sales to jump in excess of 35% by the end of 2021. To the contrary, the EV market is anything but finite.
I can see someone questioning if Tesla stock is overvalued today. But at this point, questioning if they are on the edge of bankruptcy, is silly. They're doing extremely well. It's not clear if anyone else can make money selling EVs - a top executive at Toyota said that himself, but Tesla? Yeah, they're doing okay.
The stock probably is overvalued right now. We sold our shares yesterday and made enough on them to pay for a couple of Teslas which was our goal.
The EV market is red-hot globally, led by Europe (relative to lowering carbon dioxide emissions) and China. Analysts forecast global sales to jump in excess of 35% by the end of 2021. To the contrary, the EV market is anything but finite.
EV market is finite just like the market for diesels, cell phones, computers, or anything else. Even so, that’s not to say Tesla can expect 100% market share of EV’s. Tesla’s market share can be expected to drop as EV markets invite more competition and local incentives dry up for Tesla and favor new comers. Mandates are only in Europe and China and and some states, and registrations in all those places are already dropping with very little competition. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tel...tails/52980137
I’m not sure how Tesla fans on these threads are gloating when Tesla’s sole achievement this year seems to be an overvalued stock price and what appears declining enthusiasm and growth of their products in the face of very little competition.
If anybody wants to share a theory as to how all this bad news is actually good and justifies their share price, feel free.
I can see someone questioning if Tesla stock is overvalued today. But at this point, questioning if they are on the edge of bankruptcy, is silly. They're doing extremely well. It's not clear if anyone else can make money selling EVs - a top executive at Toyota said that himself, but Tesla? Yeah, they're doing okay.
Tesla’s profit margin last quarter was 1.72%. They’re not exactly making money hand over fist. Seeing as how they’ve yet to establish themselves, it’s still quite possible their margin is still pretty volatile.
Ziggy, Tesla could easily make a lot of money right now if they stopped spending massive money on growth and R&D of future tech. The market understands this.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
