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Let's clarify this. The prediction is a price drop in Europe for the Model 3 after establishing a factory there. It's also that sales haven't peaked in Europe as there will at least be another boost from the Model Y rolling out around the world as well as opening of some new markets. After that, it may be new models (supposedly at least two new models coming in the next couple of years) or it may be refreshes of existing models (such as the upcoming not-a-refresh for the Model S and X) as sales of older models flag--much like how all the rest of the automotive industry goes. I definitely don't think Teslas going to have particular difficultly among automakers in staying afloat for at least the next few years. They haven't even made a proper advertising budget.
I think a functioning service network would probably come, but I don't know if they'll ever try for a dealer network since that seems to be unnecessary. You said "mainstream by market share" and I don't see why a dealer network is strictly necessary for that. So Daimler, BMW, Mazda, Jaguar, Volvo--all of these are not mainstream.
Model Y didn't really boost American sales as of yet. Granted there's like this whole virus thing muddying up some trends (including pushing back the competition's releases). People who really want a Tesla don't really tend to hold out for a new model unless it's drastically cheaper (like the Model 3 vs Model S). Otherwise it's no different than saying they're holding out for a new trim level or color shade.
Tesla doesn't need an advertising budget yet as they have something better, which is an overhyped market valuation that gives out free money.
I know you're hung up on if Tesla can be considered "mainstream" or "established" but it's a really strange goal to look forward to, as the day to day profits of an established automaker isn't really all that exciting compared to that of a startup with wild speculation.
Here's a reality check on what the competition is doing in Germany: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology...-hyundai-group
That's 9% of EV market share where just a year ago Tesla was #1. While Tesla enthusiast like to overhype any good news (such as they posted a meager profit) regarding Telsa, the problem is they tend to forget everybody else's good news lately has been much better than theirs. There was a point when they were bragging about growth in California, then when that drastically dropped "oh look over there, China".
Tesla has made no effort to improve their dealer network. Elon even tried to shut most of what network they did have down until he was informed by cooler heads that it was indeed necessary. Tesla's lack of a large dealer network, as most of Tesla's unexplainable quirks, can usually just be traced back to Elon's "reimagination" of things that all automakers do that don't need fixing. Tesla's reliance on their own self funded dealer network is both a drain on cost and offers no benefit to the customer as most reviews of Tesla's company dealer stores have shown.
Daimler and BMW are clearly mainstream as they have a global presence and large market share. Mazda's 14th in market share, yet you can find a Mazda dealer anywhere. Again, is it really that exciting to be the new Mazda? Jaguar and Volvo are brands within larger companies.
I don't doubt that Tesla can stay afloat for awhile, which so far has only been due to the irrational valuation of market speculation that allows Tesla to perpetuate getting free loans whenever they run into the red. The problem is since that "free money" from capital raises is based on their hype based valuation that can easily disappear is adding to their overhead cost that may not be sustainable in an increasingly crowded market and declining market share. When that happens exactly is anybody's guess, but so far Tesla seems to have traded in a cushy high margin, low cost, low competition luxury market they had with the Model S and X for a low margin, high cost, high competition mid level market that's already drowning in competition. They'll have a quarter or two here and there where a delivery bump from a new model or refreshed model will send shares skyrocketing again, but over the long haul, expect to see things like profit degrade to that of "established" automakers.
I don't think Tesla's brand will ever cease to exist in the near future (assuming Elon doesn't pull a Bill Cosby and takes his brand down with him) as much as I think Tesla will one day just get bought out by a larger more diversified auto manufacturer as most niche brands tend to do.
At one point early in the auto market there were hundreds of small auto companies in the US alone, till they eventually just became 3 big ones.
You are probably the most prolific poster, saying the same thing hundreds of times, on this subforum. Maybe it's time for you to troll somewhere else.
I wasn't the one who resurrected this thread. The "troll" who did moved on. As usual with these threads it just becomes a chat between me and OyCrumbler with an occasional cheerleader from the sidelines swinging by. Otherwise it looks like this sub forum looks like tumbleweeds when I'm not around.
From the looks of your other posts, your enthusiasm for Tesla seems to be aligning with mine.
I don’t really care about Tesla. I don’t like Tesla’s for a variety of reasons (mostly their obnoxious fanbase). It wasn’t me who dug this thread back out of the trash.
You say this as your anecdotal evidence doesn’t line up with reality.
for someone that doesnt care you seem to spend a lot of time bashing it.
if its the obnoxious fanbase that you mostly dislike then you are looking at the wrong things. its the car that matters, not the fans.
The difference is I speak from personal experience. You speak from your butt.
Coincidently your experience lines up almost exactly with what I've been telling people. I know this because I'm not blinded by enthusiasm for the company.
im not sure why you think that matters. here you are. nobody forced you to comment just because the thread got bumped.
I feel compelled to comment when something thinks they're calling me out when they're wrong.
But likewise, nobody is forcing anybody else to read my comments. This forum has a "mute" option.
Coincidently your experience lines up almost exactly with what I've been telling people. I know this because I'm not blinded by enthusiasm for the company.
Model Y didn't really boost American sales as of yet. Granted there's like this whole virus thing muddying up some trends (including pushing back the competition's releases). People who really want a Tesla don't really tend to hold out for a new model unless it's drastically cheaper (like the Model 3 vs Model S). Otherwise it's no different than saying they're holding out for a new trim level or color shade.
Tesla doesn't need an advertising budget yet as they have something better, which is an overhyped market valuation that gives out free money.
I know you're hung up on if Tesla can be considered "mainstream" or "established" but it's a really strange goal to look forward to, as the day to day profits of an established automaker isn't really all that exciting compared to that of a startup with wild speculation.
Here's a reality check on what the competition is doing in Germany: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology...-hyundai-group
That's 9% of EV market share where just a year ago Tesla was #1. While Tesla enthusiast like to overhype any good news (such as they posted a meager profit) regarding Telsa, the problem is they tend to forget everybody else's good news lately has been much better than theirs. There was a point when they were bragging about growth in California, then when that drastically dropped "oh look over there, China".
Tesla has made no effort to improve their dealer network. Elon even tried to shut most of what network they did have down until he was informed by cooler heads that it was indeed necessary. Tesla's lack of a large dealer network, as most of Tesla's unexplainable quirks, can usually just be traced back to Elon's "reimagination" of things that all automakers do that don't need fixing. Tesla's reliance on their own self funded dealer network is both a drain on cost and offers no benefit to the customer as most reviews of Tesla's company dealer stores have shown.
Daimler and BMW are clearly mainstream as they have a global presence and large market share. Mazda's 14th in market share, yet you can find a Mazda dealer anywhere. Again, is it really that exciting to be the new Mazda? Jaguar and Volvo are brands within larger companies.
I don't doubt that Tesla can stay afloat for awhile, which so far has only been due to the irrational valuation of market speculation that allows Tesla to perpetuate getting free loans whenever they run into the red. The problem is since that "free money" from capital raises is based on their hype based valuation that can easily disappear is adding to their overhead cost that may not be sustainable in an increasingly crowded market and declining market share. When that happens exactly is anybody's guess, but so far Tesla seems to have traded in a cushy high margin, low cost, low competition luxury market they had with the Model S and X for a low margin, high cost, high competition mid level market that's already drowning in competition. They'll have a quarter or two here and there where a delivery bump from a new model or refreshed model will send shares skyrocketing again, but over the long haul, expect to see things like profit degrade to that of "established" automakers.
I don't think Tesla's brand will ever cease to exist in the near future (assuming Elon doesn't pull a Bill Cosby and takes his brand down with him) as much as I think Tesla will one day just get bought out by a larger more diversified auto manufacturer as most niche brands tend to do.
At one point early in the auto market there were hundreds of small auto companies in the US alone, till they eventually just became 3 big ones.
Right, there was a factory shutdown for the only factory that produced the Model Y and it's still a luxury vehicle so people worried about their future earnings might hold off on their purchase a bit. However, a Model Y is a smaller, cheaper alternative to the Model X and it's priced and spec'd in a similar range to other luxury crossovers in its segment much like how the Model 3 was for its class. The point about an advertising budget is that if their single loudmouth hype machine isn't enough, there's always that traditional venue to get more sales which is a lever they have yet to pull.
The Model 3 is quite expensive in Europe and there are a lot of domestic competitors producing within Europe. Tesla supposedly batches its production runs and shipping by region to some extent and supposedly the pandemic related shutdown came around the time when Tesla does its production push for Europe. One additional thing you're conveniently missing about the lower EV market share percentage is that at least some of it is also because plugins have taken a sizable chunk of the total German vehicle market share as Europe as a whole has moved rapidly towards plugins with a much reduced market share and sales for internal combustion vehicles. Yea, Tesla's market share of EVs is less than half what it was last year for the first seven months of the year YOY in Germany, but that reduction in volume is about 23% from last year while total new vehicle market sales in Germany dropped by 30%.
I'm not the one who claims Tesla isn't mainstream. Daimler and BMW are clearly not top 10 automakers in sales. Jaguar and Volvo are brands within larger companies, but neither company those are a part of is a top 10 automaker either when you look at their total vehicle production. Sure it's exciting to be a new Mazda of sorts--that's an established automaker that's mainstream though none of the ones mentioned meet your mentioned criteria of being in the top 10.
Tesla doesn't have a real dealership network. It has showrooms and service centers that sort of work like company-owned dealerships, but there are notable differences. There's pros and cons to that though I think ultimately it's a better move.
You definitely were leaning on a lot more doom and gloom for Tesla in the past, so it's interesting that you've shifted towards not doubting that Tesla can stay afloat for a while. Great. I don't see profits degrading to that of "established" automakers or a potential subsequent drop in valuation to be more in line with other established automakers as a bad thing and that's a far cry from questioning if Tesla can stay afloat in the near future. The only immediate and obvious differences in Tesla's business to other automakers is its rather large investment in energy storage and solar power, but it's certainly not obvious that those will be particularly successful. The thing you do is basic just say things that are obviously wrong, but then try to weasel into something else. That's fantastic for you, and it's maybe fun for others, but ultimately what seems to be happening is that Tesla's going to keep making more EVs for the foreseeable future and plugins are going to rapidly increase in market share over the course of this decade.
The arc of consolidation is at least accurate. After all, there's arguably not even really a Big 3 anymore as Chrysler is now Fiat Chrysler and the "American-ness" of it is about to be further diluted as it merges with PSA. There's a spate of new US automakers over the last several years especially with regards to EVs and I'd expect most of them to either fail (as several have already) or be bought. Tesla could potentially merge with or be bought or buy out another automaker at some point. It's sort of funny that it's the third largest automaker based in the US.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-09-2020 at 10:28 AM..
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