Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
They’ve already dropped prices in Europe. That’s not a prediction. Neither are the two factories being built. Sales have already stalled here. You’re simply stating that you expect some pent up demand for the Model Y that has yet to be released in the European market sometime in the future. And I supposed you expect this trend to last forever. Sure there should be some sort of sales bounce as most companies would expect as they release a new model, but as we’ve already seen with the Model 3, that market share is going to keep slipping as more entrants release newer cars and Tesla has to keep dropping prices and profit margins to keep up.
Let’s say when Tesla breaks into the top 10 largest auto producers, and produces a half functioning dealer and service network, we call that “mainstream”.
Ziggy 2018: Demand is slowing 250k vehicles
Ziggy 2019: Demand is slowing 360k vehicles
Ziggy 2020: Demand is slowing 500k vehicles
Ziggy 2021: Demand is slowing 1 million vehicles
Ziggy 2022: Demand is slowing 1.5 million vehicles
...
Ziggy 2030: Demand is slowing 5 million vehicles
One day, you will actually be right. I'm afraid it doesn't look like it will be for a while.
Ziggy 2022: Demand is slowing 1.5 million vehicles
...
Ziggy 2030: Demand is slowing 5 million vehicles
One day, you will actually be right. I'm afraid it doesn't look like it will be for a while.
How would Tesla get to 1 million vehicles in 2021? They're not projected to finish the German factory until the second half of 2021 and the Texas factory until around the end of next year. They're adding to existing factories, but it doesn't seem like it could be that much.
Right, there was a factory shutdown for the only factory that produced the Model Y and it's still a luxury vehicle so people worried about their future earnings might hold off on their purchase a bit. However, a Model Y is a smaller, cheaper alternative to the Model X and it's priced and spec'd in a similar range to other luxury crossovers in its segment much like how the Model 3 was for its class. The point about an advertising budget is that if their single loudmouth hype machine isn't enough, there's always that traditional venue to get more sales which is a lever they have yet to pull.
The Model 3 is quite expensive in Europe and there are a lot of domestic competitors producing within Europe. Tesla supposedly batches its production runs and shipping by region to some extent and supposedly the pandemic related shutdown came around the time when Tesla does its production push for Europe. One additional thing you're conveniently missing about the lower EV market share percentage is that at least some of it is also because plugins have taken a sizable chunk of the total German vehicle market share as Europe as a whole has moved rapidly towards plugins with a much reduced market share and sales for internal combustion vehicles. Yea, Tesla's market share of EVs is less than half what it was last year for the first seven months of the year YOY in Germany, but that reduction in volume is about 23% from last year while total new vehicle market sales in Germany dropped by 30%.
I'm not the one who claims Tesla isn't mainstream. Daimler and BMW are clearly not top 10 automakers in sales. Jaguar and Volvo are brands within larger companies, but neither company those are a part of is a top 10 automaker either when you look at their total vehicle production. Sure it's exciting to be a new Mazda of sorts--that's an established automaker that's mainstream though none of the ones mentioned meet your mentioned criteria of being in the top 10.
Tesla doesn't have a real dealership network. It has showrooms and service centers that sort of work like company-owned dealerships, but there are notable differences. There's pros and cons to that though I think ultimately it's a better move.
You definitely were leaning on a lot more doom and gloom for Tesla in the past, so it's interesting that you've shifted towards not doubting that Tesla can stay afloat for a while. Great. I don't see profits degrading to that of "established" automakers or a potential subsequent drop in valuation to be more in line with other established automakers as a bad thing and that's a far cry from questioning if Tesla can stay afloat in the near future. The only immediate and obvious differences in Tesla's business to other automakers is its rather large investment in energy storage and solar power, but it's certainly not obvious that those will be particularly successful. The thing you do is basic just say things that are obviously wrong, but then try to weasel into something else. That's fantastic for you, and it's maybe fun for others, but ultimately what seems to be happening is that Tesla's going to keep making more EVs for the foreseeable future and plugins are going to rapidly increase in market share over the course of this decade.
The arc of consolidation is at least accurate. After all, there's arguably not even really a Big 3 anymore as Chrysler is now Fiat Chrysler and the "American-ness" of it is about to be further diluted as it merges with PSA. There's a spate of new US automakers over the last several years especially with regards to EVs and I'd expect most of them to either fail (as several have already) or be bought. Tesla could potentially merge with or be bought or buy out another automaker at some point. It's sort of funny that it's the third largest automaker based in the US.
Tesla doesn’t have a plug in to compete because Elon just doesn’t like them. Lack of diverse offerings does eventually limit competitiveness as has been shown. This is something I’ve been saying since the beginning.
The fate of Chrysler is exactly what I’m talking about. What became a consolidated “Big 3” in the US became a Big 2” as Chrysler got absorbed into Fiat, which had already consolidated everything from Fiat to Ferrari. FCA in turn was considering becoming part of Nissan/Renault. Typically in these large industries, the biggest fish typically eats the smaller fish. What starts as a small company, gets eaten into a larger national brand, then eventually a global brand. Tesla could easily get absorbed by Geely or Tata once their market cap valuation drops enough to be a good deal. Elon was set to sell outright to Saudi government for apparently $420 a share. Try not to get too attached.
There’s no benefit of the “showroom” model that Tesla is trying to copy from Apple. People like the idea of no haggle pricing but that’s only because they’re content with paying full MSRP which is always an option elsewhere. That dealer model exist simply because Elon wants it to.
I don’t think I’ve ever said that Tesla will one day cease to exist. Sure it might go bankrupt, or get absorbed by a better company with more stable leadership, but brands alone are worth something unless they really drive their image into the ground. Even Fisker seems to keep rising from the dead. Go read up on the history of Bugatti or any European company if you want to see zombie brands that keep rising from the dead. Volkswagen was founded by actual Nazi’s and and they got caught cheating on emissions and even it’s branding is still valuable in our new “woke” days. Not saying it can’t happen, but you really have to go out of your way to make a brand go away forever.
There’s no benefit of the “showroom” model that Tesla is trying to copy from Apple. People like the idea of no haggle pricing but that’s only because they’re content with paying full MSRP which is always an option elsewhere. That dealer model exist simply because Elon wants it to.
the assumption is that MSRP for tesla is a fair price where MSRP for your typical car is an inflated price which is expected to be discounted.
Tesla doesn’t have a plug in to compete because Elon just doesn’t like them. Lack of diverse offerings does eventually limit competitiveness as has been shown. This is something I’ve been saying since the beginning.
The fate of Chrysler is exactly what I’m talking about. What became a consolidated “Big 3” in the US became a Big 2” as Chrysler got absorbed into Fiat, which had already consolidated everything from Fiat to Ferrari. FCA in turn was considering becoming part of Nissan/Renault. Typically in these large industries, the biggest fish typically eats the smaller fish. What starts as a small company, gets eaten into a larger national brand, then eventually a global brand. Tesla could easily get absorbed by Geely or Tata once their market cap valuation drops enough to be a good deal. Elon was set to sell outright to Saudi government for apparently $420 a share. Try not to get too attached.
There’s no benefit of the “showroom” model that Tesla is trying to copy from Apple. People like the idea of no haggle pricing but that’s only because they’re content with paying full MSRP which is always an option elsewhere. That dealer model exist simply because Elon wants it to.
I don’t think I’ve ever said that Tesla will one day cease to exist. Sure it might go bankrupt, or get absorbed by a better company with more stable leadership, but brands alone are worth something unless they really drive their image into the ground. Even Fisker seems to keep rising from the dead. Go read up on the history of Bugatti or any European company if you want to see zombie brands that keep rising from the dead. Volkswagen was founded by actual Nazi’s and and they got caught cheating on emissions and even it’s branding is still valuable in our new “woke” days. Not saying it can’t happen, but you really have to go out of your way to make a brand go away forever.
What? What do you think Teslas are if they aren't plugins? You refuel Teslas with a plug. If you're talking about not going the route of a plugin hybrid, well, that would've been odd. You mean split your resources as a start-up to develop an internal combustion engine and a hybrid system when you're ultimately trying to move towards electric-only vehicles where you'll essentially strand those assets that other established automakers have decades more of experience and resources? And do that when you have decades of battery improvement trends that actually point to the end goal of making electric vehicles is within reach? None of that seems reasonable and it's fortunate that Tesla nixed going down that route. It also doesn't limit Tesla from diversifying offerings since it did launch multiple vehicles after the Model S and has a roadmap for at least two more with another two more hinted.
The other thing Tesla can do is absorb a much larger volume automaker since its valuation is higher and a merger based on their valuations would potentially give Tesla a dominant position within the merger/acquisition.
Some people don't love haggling. If you do, great. The assumption for MSRP for most vehicles is that you can always haggle down. If no one is getting a special deal over others though, then it's not of much use.
Fisker keeps rising because the guy is still around trying to make a company named after him even if prior companies didn't work out. The car he actually launched is now the Karma Revero with no Fisker in there. There are plenty of brands and marks that don't stick around because the vast majority of them don't end up going anywhere. That's besides the point though--Tesla the automaker is not in danger of going away anytime soon.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-09-2020 at 12:51 PM..
What? What do you think Teslas are if they aren't plugins?
i was a little confused by that statement also. i dont really want another engine if i can avoid one. the 315 miles of range on the y long range should mean that i never need to worry about range.
How would Tesla get to 1 million vehicles in 2021? They're not projected to finish the German factory until the second half of 2021 and the Texas factory until around the end of next year. They're adding to existing factories, but it doesn't seem like it could be that much.
Well they will be producing Model Y in China by end of the year. I'm guessing 4,000 / week of that produced in China next year.
3,000 / week model 3 in China right now, + 1000 /wk of the lower end 3 LiPO4 coming soon.
400,000 in China
In the U.S., say 1000 Model S/X / week and 8,000 3/Y per week.
450,000
Berlin will be volume production for maybe 1/2 a year (I expect first production to start in spring). 4,000 / wk
100,000
Austin will be maybe producing some volume Model Y for 1 quarter, maybe 2,000 / wk.
Don't know about Cybertruck or Semi
25,000
That's just under 1 million. Of course I could be wrong and too aggressive on some of these. But I also think they are being conservative with timelines now.
the assumption is that MSRP for tesla is a fair price where MSRP for your typical car is an inflated price which is expected to be discounted.
Lol. Nothing about Tesla’s MSRP is fair. You’re paying premium prices for a stripped down sedan with fake leather and no vented seats. Paying $8K to turn on software that allows you to beta test Tesla’s crude self driving software. https://www.consumerreports.org/auto...t-of-its-name/
Do all that and Tesla can still drop the price across their lineup a week later.
What people really mean is they’re just comfortable with the idea of overpaying provided everybody else has to overpay as well. You can call it what you want but in the end you’ve simply removed the ability to negotiate in return for convenience and fooled yourself into thinking you got the best possible price.
Lol. Nothing about Tesla’s MSRP is fair. You’re paying premium prices for a stripped down sedan with fake leather and no vented seats. Paying $8K to turn on software that allows you to beta test Tesla’s crude self driving software. https://www.consumerreports.org/auto...t-of-its-name/
Do all that and Tesla can still drop the price across their lineup a week later.
What people really mean is they’re just comfortable with the idea of overpaying provided everybody else has to overpay as well. You can call it what you want but in the end you’ve simply removed the ability to negotiate in return for convenience and fooled yourself into thinking you got the best possible price.
it can still be price shopped with other cars. so you take the MSRP you get on tesla's web site and see what else you can get for that money and see which is a better value. other car companies raise and drop prices all of the time. its not unique to tesla. at least with tesla the price drop is up front and transparent. with other dealers you may have to go there and do battle with them to get down to what should be a fair price.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
