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Lol. Nothing about Tesla’s MSRP is fair. You’re paying premium prices for a stripped down sedan with fake leather and no vented seats. Paying $8K to turn on software that allows you to beta test Tesla’s crude self driving software. https://www.consumerreports.org/auto...t-of-its-name/
Do all that and Tesla can still drop the price across their lineup a week later.
What people really mean is they’re just comfortable with the idea of overpaying provided everybody else has to overpay as well. You can call it what you want but in the end you’ve simply removed the ability to negotiate in return for convenience and fooled yourself into thinking you got the best possible price.
Let me know as soon as a superior EV at a lower price point is made available. I’ll be waiting.
Supposedly Tesla generally goes for end of the quarter pushes (which would have meant loading up on September sales for this quarter) so this is a bit of a surprise. Germany's home-grown VW ID.3 should top sales this month though as this is it's big launch month and VW stockpiled a lot of vehicles before they started deliveries.
ZeApelido 2018: Tesla is #1 selling car in Europe.
ZeApelido 2019: Tesla is #1 selling EV in Europe.
ZeApelido 2020: Tesla is # 4 selling EV in Europe.
ZeApelido 2022: Tesla is #15 selling EV in Europe but #1 EV in Mozambique.
Just looked at Tesla US sales this year. About 65,000 sales through Q2. That compares to about 84,000 for the same period last year. Tesla Q2 sales were down 41% as compared to 30% for the total US market.
Their market share was 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. It's unlikely to be that high in 2020.
It takes a lot of creativity to project Tesla as a big presence in the US market any time soon.
Just looked at Tesla US sales this year. About 65,000 sales through Q2. That compares to about 84,000 for the same period last year. Tesla Q2 sales were down 41% as compared to 30% for the total US market.
Their market share was 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. It's unlikely to be that high in 2020.
It takes a lot of creativity to project Tesla as a big presence in the US market any time soon.
i was curious if that was because it is more expensive than the average car so i figured id take a look at BMW year over year sales and they are down 67%. so it may not be down more when compared with cars that are similarly priced.
just looked at mercedes and they were only down 17.2%
just looked at tesla us sales this year. About 65,000 sales through q2. That compares to about 84,000 for the same period last year. Tesla q2 sales were down 41% as compared to 30% for the total us market.
Their market share was 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. It's unlikely to be that high in 2020.
It takes a lot of creativity to project tesla as a big presence in the us market any time soon.
Just looked at Tesla US sales this year. About 65,000 sales through Q2. That compares to about 84,000 for the same period last year. Tesla Q2 sales were down 41% as compared to 30% for the total US market.
Their market share was 1.1% in both 2018 and 2019. It's unlikely to be that high in 2020.
It takes a lot of creativity to project Tesla as a big presence in the US market any time soon.
I would think that there's the obvious bit that sales were down for pretty much all (probably all) automakers in the US for Q2 of this year versus last year. As market share is a percentage of sales of the total market, it's actually possible in that situation for Tesla to both post lower sales in the US this year than last while simultaneously having greater market share this year than last.
If you look at those drops for Q2, you'll see that the largest automakers selling in the US (the Big 3 and Toyota) all had slightly larger percentage drops than Tesla did. If their percentage drops are higher than Tesla's, then it stands to reason that Tesla probably didn't get hit with much of a market share drop if any. If you believe the stats from that site, Tesla posted a very modest increase in market share to 1.24%. Q1 2020 had Tesla at 1.5% which are both higher than the 1.1% figure you stated for previous years. Of course, that's still quite small and things can change in the second half of the year, so it remains to be seen how the rest of the year shakes out.
In Europe, which is what the post you quoted mentioned, the Model 3 has got a good shot at somewhere in the top 2 (and is very unlikely to be in the #4 slot) including some chance of a number 1 slot for the year. The Renault Zoe is likely going to be number 1, though it's not ahead of the Tesla Model 3 at the number 2 slot by much. The Volkswagen e-Golf is at number three YTD, but it's an older vehicle that has about half the YTD sales of the Model 3 and has an immediate replacement contender from VW with the id.3. The id.3 isn't launching until this month so it'd be difficult for that replacement vehicle to get in the top 3 in such a short amount of time. I'd be surprised if the Model 3 grabbed the top spot for EVs though given the massive price difference between that and the Zoe. One other thing to mention is that there wasn't the flurry of end-of-quarter delivery in Europe for Q2 which can potentially have been affected by the pandemic (Tesla currently has one factory based in California producing vehicles for Europe and it was completely down for a significant part of Q2), but it may be possible that Q3 somewhat makes up for that.
As for having a big presence in the US market anytime soon, the question then is what qualifies as a big presence and what does soon mean to you? Of the 15 mass production automotive groups selling in the US, the best selling automaker in the US tops out around 20% of market share and it goes down pretty quickly from there. Tesla is at number 13 out of the 15 and still firmly in the luxury vehicle bracket with its offerings, but if the idea is that they'll get double digit market share in the US within this decade, well, that seems like a really tough nut to crack as the luxury vehicle market in the US as a whole is only about 10% of US new vehicle market share. They would need to drop prices on existing models to make them no longer luxury offerings (and who does that?) or start fielding new non-luxury vehicles and it doesn't seem like they've announced anything concrete on either front though the company had mentioned the possibility of new design centers making smaller and presumably less expensive vehicles.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-22-2020 at 12:40 PM..
As for having a big presence in the US market anytime soon, the question then is what qualifies as a big presence and what does soon mean to you?
Big presence would be something like Honda, or ten percent. Any time soon to me is within eight to ten years.
Quote:
Of the 15 mass production automotive groups selling in the US, the best selling automaker in the US tops out around 20% of market share and it goes down pretty quickly from there. Tesla is at number 13 out of the 15 and still firmly in the luxury vehicle bracket with its offerings, but if the idea is that they'll get double digit market share in the US within this decade, well, that seems like a really tough nut to crack as the luxury vehicle market in the US as a whole is only about 10% of US new vehicle market share.
I would not put Tesla in the luxury car category. I doubt that many people buy a model 3 due to its luxury, but they are more likely to buy due to it being an EV.
Big presence would be something like Honda, or ten percent. Any time soon to me is within eight to ten years.
I would not put Tesla in the luxury car category. I doubt that many people buy a model 3 due to its luxury, but they are more likely to buy due to it being an EV.
I see. I'd maybe place Hyundai / Kia in there since its sales are very close to Honda's and before a significant drop down in sales to Nissan for the last quarter though Nissan was up and close to Honda not too long ago. That then would be the Big Three, Toyota, and Honda, and maybe Hyundai / Kia and/or Nissan as having big presences and the rest not so much. That I'd think would be very difficult for Tesla to get into for the US within this decade unless they dramatically lowered prices / added new cheaper vehicles.
There were surveys on what people are cross-shopping / trading in against the Model 3. It's essentially Toyota Camry and Prius as well as BMW 3-Series. I get the argument in relation to the Prius though less so for the Camry where one can argue that's someone trading up. I think the 3-Series is usually considered a luxury vehicle and the Model 3 does seem targeted towards the crowd in cost, size, and performance. After that, the other three Teslas are even more expensive. All of them are really big on technological doohickies which is a hallmark of luxury vehicles as it is with the performance orientation. These as well as higher pricing than vehicles of similar makes (like Camry / Accord versus a 3-Series / C-Class) have traditionally been large selling points for BMW which in the US is generally considered a luxury automaker I think. To me, that points to targeting the luxury segment, but I can see your side of the argument. Regardless, I don't see Tesla dropping its prices for its current offerings down well below the median new vehicle sales price anytime soon. I think it'd really have to be from expanding its lineup. The Cybertruck is certainly a different segment for Tesla, but I don't think that'd be anywhere close to enough to get 10% of new vehicle market share as it's a pretty odd vehicle.
Does what I said about total vehicle sales being down, but market share being up during this pandemic make sense to you? I'm wondering if that was too convoluted to understand.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-22-2020 at 01:43 PM..
Model Y didn't really boost American sales as of yet. Granted there's like this whole virus thing muddying up some trends (including pushing back the competition's releases). People who really want a Tesla don't really tend to hold out for a new model unless it's drastically cheaper (like the Model 3 vs Model S). Otherwise it's no different than saying they're holding out for a new trim level or color shade.
Tesla doesn't need an advertising budget yet as they have something better, which is an overhyped market valuation that gives out free money.
I know you're hung up on if Tesla can be considered "mainstream" or "established" but it's a really strange goal to look forward to, as the day to day profits of an established automaker isn't really all that exciting compared to that of a startup with wild speculation.
Here's a reality check on what the competition is doing in Germany: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology...-hyundai-group
That's 9% of EV market share where just a year ago Tesla was #1. While Tesla enthusiast like to overhype any good news (such as they posted a meager profit) regarding Telsa, the problem is they tend to forget everybody else's good news lately has been much better than theirs. There was a point when they were bragging about growth in California, then when that drastically dropped "oh look over there, China".
Tesla has made no effort to improve their dealer network. Elon even tried to shut most of what network they did have down until he was informed by cooler heads that it was indeed necessary. Tesla's lack of a large dealer network, as most of Tesla's unexplainable quirks, can usually just be traced back to Elon's "reimagination" of things that all automakers do that don't need fixing. Tesla's reliance on their own self funded dealer network is both a drain on cost and offers no benefit to the customer as most reviews of Tesla's company dealer stores have shown.
Daimler and BMW are clearly mainstream as they have a global presence and large market share. Mazda's 14th in market share, yet you can find a Mazda dealer anywhere. Again, is it really that exciting to be the new Mazda? Jaguar and Volvo are brands within larger companies.
I don't doubt that Tesla can stay afloat for awhile, which so far has only been due to the irrational valuation of market speculation that allows Tesla to perpetuate getting free loans whenever they run into the red. The problem is since that "free money" from capital raises is based on their hype based valuation that can easily disappear is adding to their overhead cost that may not be sustainable in an increasingly crowded market and declining market share. When that happens exactly is anybody's guess, but so far Tesla seems to have traded in a cushy high margin, low cost, low competition luxury market they had with the Model S and X for a low margin, high cost, high competition mid level market that's already drowning in competition. They'll have a quarter or two here and there where a delivery bump from a new model or refreshed model will send shares skyrocketing again, but over the long haul, expect to see things like profit degrade to that of "established" automakers.
I don't think Tesla's brand will ever cease to exist in the near future (assuming Elon doesn't pull a Bill Cosby and takes his brand down with him) as much as I think Tesla will one day just get bought out by a larger more diversified auto manufacturer as most niche brands tend to do.
At one point early in the auto market there were hundreds of small auto companies in the US alone, till they eventually just became 3 big ones.
Follow-up to this and the reality check in Germany. Yes, Tesla originally dropped in sales volume, though it's smaller drop in sales volume than the overall market meant that it increased its market share, but it seems to be coming back a bit in Germany as it's now the only brand in Germany that is now registering a gain in sales volume for the year to date at 24.5% gain over last year for the year to date versus the overall market's 25.5% drop. If you take a second to think about, that necessarily means a gain in market share.
Of course, it's still a very minor player in the overall German new sales market (just over half a percent!) and will probably remain that way until some time after the Model Y launches from its Berlin factory though even then I highly doubt it'll top any of the three major German domestic automakers. After all, perennial largest automaker in the world Toyota with the combined Toyota and Lexus brands holds less than 3% of new market share in Germany. Hopefully the Berlin factory and a year or two of the Model Y being out means somewhat better quality control.
I think this is pretty indicative that Tesla might be able to stay afloat for at least the short-term.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 10-05-2020 at 04:53 PM..
I think Tesla is already beating BMW in sales, stateside in many states because they were caught lying about sales report. Most BMWs are leased for a few years and returned then sits on the dealer lot. So BMW would try to unload them slowly so they don't flood the market.
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