Why Texas is the (U.S.) Future (Houston, Dallas: transplants, real estate)

[biafra4life]

Originally Posted by EDS_

Everyone needs to read and understand the points in that piece about employment and aggregate COL in Texas.

Those were that per - X amount of income one is much better off in Texas than any other large population state. And that our average or median earnings net of taxes and COL metrics put us behind only Washington State and Virginia. And Virginia is only better than TX due to significant federal gov. employment in NOVA.

And to once and for all end the canard that all the new jobs in Texas are low paying. Note item 7 that states, over the last ~10 years 1/3 of all high paying new jobs in the nation have been created in Texas. Folks that's not luck that's the .gov staying out of the way to a large degree.

I dont think you could say it's the "gov staying out of the way". Its the gov throwing large amounts of money at companies to get them to relocate here. That being said, I certainly wouldnt debate the fact that Texas creates more jobs (both high and low paying) than most states. My only concern is that for the most part, the new jobs are created by luring them from other states with promises of tax abatements or other incentives. Personally I think that's a short sighted policy that will ultimately backfire. Playing the lowest price game, eventually someone will trump your offer and get the company to move to their state. Just look at how Radioshack jerked Fort Worth around when their lease came up. Threatening to move unless Fort Worth ponied up even MORE incentives than before. As soon as Mississippi/Alabama/Louisiana get their houses in order and start bidding for companies, I see them eventually undercutting Texas. They are all much cheaper COL states than Texas (I think, dont quote me).

Bash California all you like (deservedly in some cases), but most of the big companies were actually CREATED there, not lured in from elsewhere. When are we going to see that type of innovation here in Texas? Dell is the only native born company I can think of (I'm ruling out the Oil and Gas companies simply because they HAD to be here since the oil is here, not because of any Texas innovation). I would feel a lot better about all the self congratulations I hear around here when the innovation goes way up, and companies are actually being created here that will go on to rule the world, the way California was back in the day.

[jdallas]

Originally Posted by matteo81

I tend to think Texas is a success far more due to its geography & geology than its public policy.

I couldn't rep you again so I'm quoting for agreement.

original poster mentioned a 30 year period. Anything within my own lifespan counts neither for history nor future. It's contemporary, pop or a trend at the most.

[happycrow]

I disagree, jdallas.

For example, my twin lives in California. His electric bill is basically set in stone. Here in TX you can shop around. I tell folks he knows out there that if they moved to TX I can get them 5c/kilowatt electric (this is true), and they look at me like at me like I've just busted out into Swahili, they're so jealous -- and that deregulation, among many, many others, is the basis of a policy decision, not geography. And that's only one of numerous examples where, for all TX's flaws, and there are many, we really do things better.

[TheOverdog]

I hear around here when the innovation goes way up, and companies are actually being created here that will go on to rule the world, the way California was back in the day.

If I recall the story correctly, the reason companies set up in silicon valley is because of state fiscal considerations due to a large amount of land owned by UC-Berkley - it was unable to sell for gov't reasons so it gave away as grants and for low rent payments. It's not by accident or luck that area became a hotbed of technology. However, once started there, it proved to be a great area (education, social infrastructure, business competitive advantage) and that more companies work to get in to despite high taxes, cost of living, and regulations. (CF: facebook, not a california company) It remains to be seen if the companies Texas lures will remain for the same reasons which have to be created and maintained or if they will continue shopping for the best deals.

Educational infrastructure is one area where Texas is weak compared to CA, as many of CA's great universities are in populous areas, where many of the largeTexas universities (Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UNT) are not, and the DFW area is weak in terms of major universities. Houston at least has the UofH, which has been getting stronger for the last decade. You can see the value of a large unversity driving job growth with UT in Austin.

[augiedogie]

I can't believe anyone is dumb enough to buy the dung that a leftist mag like "Time" Spews out. Considering the big govt. high tax, welfare state is what most in our country prefer, Texas and some of the other states in the middle of the country will probably have a future prosperity. The two coasts will continue on their path, high taxes, welfare, more regulations, and a shrinking tax base. Both Ca. and NY have energy resources they could tap to help their economy, but the people don't want it, so it will not happen. Texas Louisiana and other states have the resources and will continue tap them and revive their economies. That's the future.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by BeenThereDunThat

I deal in finance and study demographics, trends, etc. and I've long ago come to the conclusion that Texas has been shaping up to what a majority of the U.S. may well look like in the next 25 to 30 years. (Hey don't kill the messenger folks, I deal in numbers, stats, Monte Carlo models, median, mean & average analysis trends... numbers simply don't lie, so there! )

Anyways... looking at how metro areas have been shaping up over the past 30 years or so (yeah, I'm that old!) ... I feel that as Texas goes, so will most of the U.S. in the next 30 years. Call me crazy but I seem to have more information to back this up. New issue of TIME Magazine seems to share this feeling... for a thumbnail sketch of what I'm talking about, it may be worth a read. I'm sure more news outlets will be covering this in the foreseeable future.

10 Reasons Texas Is America's Future | TIME.com

Is it going to be a perfect Utopia? No I don't think there will ever be such a place however when you compare the current trends of the major Texas metros, I'd have to say that they're probably in a lot better shape than some of the other major metros in the U.S. which have seen better days. And as a whole, you have to look at the state of Texas in the same vein as economic clout. Everyone knows California's significance in the world economy... Texas is definitely entering this league. It's going to be quite a shift and if you're not paying attention, you may be missing out on some tremendous benefits / opportunities in the coming decade.

My2Cents FWIW

I question some of the assertions in that article. Such as:

5. Cheap land, cheap houses

So where can people go when their incomes aren’t keeping pace with the rising cost of living? We know they’re headed to Texas. And they’re headed there because land is cheap, and thus housing is cheap.
A typical home in Brooklyn costs more than half a million dollars (and rising rapidly), and 85% of these dwellings are apartments and condos rather than stand-alone homes. They don’t usually have impressive sinks and seamlessly operating air-conditioning fixtures. In Houston, the typical home costs $130,100 — and it is likely a stand-alone and newer than the structure in Brooklyn.

According to City-Data the mean detached house costs $197,221 in 2011:

Estimated median house or condo value in 2011: $122,100

Mean prices in 2011: All housing units: $194,047; Detached houses: $197,221; Townhouses or other attached units: $200,975; In 2-unit structures: $237,194; In 3-to-4-unit structures: $155,747; In 5-or-more-unit structures: $198,198; Mobile homes: $35,988; Occupied boats, RVs, vans, etc.: $13,166[LEFT]
Read more: //www.city-data.com/city/Housto...#ixzz2iOd9rZSZ
[/LEFT]

If the article is that far off on the cost of housing, I have to question the rest of the claims it makes.

The author also falls into the typically short sighted trap of bragging about Texas low taxes, no state income tax, while ignoring the fact that the property taxes are some of the highest in the country and the state makes up the lack of an income tax by charging all sorts of extra fees.

Wow, is this really a future anyone is looking forward to forward to?

10. The rise of micro-houses

Cowen even predicts that micro-houses will become popular as people seek out super-low-cost living:

In some ways, Cowen says, the new settlements of a Texas-like America could come to resemble trailer parks. “The next Brooklyn may end up somewhere in the Dakotas,” he writes. “Fargo, anyone?”

[rynetwo]

Originally Posted by CptnRn

I question some of the assertions in that article. Such as:



According to City-Data the mean detached house costs $197,221 in 2011:



If the article is that far off on the cost of housing, I have to question the rest of the claims it makes.

The author also falls into the typically short sighted trap of bragging about Texas low taxes, no state income tax, while ignoring the fact that the property taxes are some of the highest in the country and the state makes up the lack of an income tax by charging all sorts of extra fees.

Wow, is this really a future anyone is looking forward to forward to?

It kinda makes up the gap but Texas is still near the bottom.

http://taxfoundation.org/sites/taxfo...p-20110223.pdf

[BeenThereDunThat]

Originally Posted by rynetwo

It kinda makes up the gap but Texas is still near the bottom.

http://taxfoundation.org/sites/taxfo...p-20110223.pdf

Yep...just another example of the numbers showing the trend.

[dv1033]

Originally Posted by rynetwo

It kinda makes up the gap but Texas is still near the bottom.

http://taxfoundation.org/sites/taxfo...p-20110223.pdf

Originally Posted by BeenThereDunThat

Yep...just another example of the numbers showing the trend.

While that can be a good thing, I think Texas (as a states /municipalities) needs to strike a better balance of revenue and spending as this state will need a lot infrastructure (transportation, water, power, educational) maintenance and expansion to keep up with exploding growth.

[Woof]

Ironically enough, the future of Texas is liberalism. Hispanics are increasing as a percentage of population, and as we've seen recently they vote heavily Democratic.

What then?