Texas Population Projections by City; 51 million by 2070 (Houston, Dallas: how much, college)

[manitopiaaa]

I was looking at the Texas Water Development Board's population projections, which they developed to determine how much water the state will need in future decades.

Some of the trends are eyeopening: pop_City - Report Viewer

Here is what the this state agency is projecting will be the biggest (>200k people) cities in 2070 (in alphabetical order):
Amarillo 341,594
Arlington 428,403
Austin 1,733,756
Brownsville 426,990
College Station 215,545
Corpus Christi 409,129
Dallas 1,905,499
Denton 570,694(!)
Edinburg 215,659
El Paso 1,136,275
Fort Worth 1,953,270 (bigger than Dallas!)
Frisco 280,000
Garland 243,907
Grand Prairie 283,571
Houston 3,154,863
Irving 284,500
Killeen 283,732
Laredo 610,669(!)
Leander 344,240(!)
Lubbock 399,846
McAllen 363,284
McKinney 358,000
Mesquite 236,034
Mission 215,541
Pflugerville 209,512
Plano 292,656
Round Rock 411,545
San Antonio 2,395,743 (as big as Houston today)

Are these numbers even possible? The agency projects each of Collin and Denton counties will be bigger than Tarrant County today and Williamson County will have 1.6 million people.

[jackalope48]

That's low for Corpus. It's averaged 4k people a year over the last decade and it isn't geographically surrounded. 75k more in 50 years is the same as the population increase from 1990 to 2016.

[Juventud Guerrero]

I'm amazed at the projections for El paso,Laredo and Leander.

[atadytic19]

These projections are silly.

They have tiny pieces like Celina growing exponentially from 22k to 150k but sizeable burbs such as Irving, Pearland and Sugarland basically staying about the same size they are now.

[Mark Senior]

Originally Posted by Juventud Guerrero

I'm amazed at the projections for El paso,Laredo and Leander.

Leander, just boom town because of Austin, like all the DFW boom towns, because they are close to a mega central city. Oh, well.

[Mark Senior]

Originally Posted by atadytic19

These projections are silly.

They have tiny pieces like Celina growing exponentially from 22k to 150k but sizeable burbs such as Irving, Pearland and Sugarland basically staying about the same size they are now.

yes, and no, Irving has no land to annex to grow substantially. Celina, booming because of mega Fort Worth close by. You know its not hard to boom from 100 - to 10,000 lol.

[Mark Senior]

[quote=manitopiaaa;51213242]I was looking at the Texas Water Development Board's population projections, which they developed to determine how much water the state will need in future decades.

Some of the trends are eyeopening: pop_City - Report Viewer

Here is what the this state agency is projecting will be the biggest (>200k people) cities in 2070 (in alphabetical order):
Amarillo 341,594
Arlington 428,403
Austin 1,733,756
Brownsville 426,990
College Station 215,545
Corpus Christi 409,129
Dallas 1,905,499
Denton 570,694(!)
Edinburg 215,659
El Paso 1,136,275
Fort Worth 1,953,270 (bigger than Dallas!)
Frisco 280,000
Garland 243,907
Grand Prairie 283,571
Houston 3,154,863
Irving 284,500
Killeen 283,732
Laredo 610,669(!)
Leander 344,240(!)
Lubbock 399,846
McAllen 363,284
McKinney 358,000
Mesquite 236,034
Mission 215,541
Pflugerville 209,512
Plano 292,656
Round Rock 411,545
San Antonio 2,395,743 (as big as Houston today)

Are these numbers even possible? The agency projects each of Collin and Denton counties will be bigger than Tarrant County today and Williamson County will have 1.6 million people.[/QUOT


Dallas, is all but land locked, has been for years, so no surprise that Fort Worth will be larger than Dallas. Fort Worth can annex, like they have been, on up to Oklahoma, if they wish, lol Soooo, boom boom, sure. And to the Dallas comment, that is likely an over estimate, unless they high rise everywhere, and become as dense as other older, mega cities, likely, maybe?


These "guesses" of population are good for planning on water needs, sure, but estimating populations some 52 years out, heck, who knows what the Chinese will have America looking like by then, lol, or even if any of "this" will exist.

[TXNGL]

Originally Posted by atadytic19

These projections are silly.

They have tiny pieces like Celina growing exponentially from 22k to 150k but sizeable burbs such as Irving, Pearland and Sugarland basically staying about the same size they are now.

I'm having trouble pulling up the projections but Celina, for example, would not surprise me. Irving is probably built out. There is a TON of land for building in Celina.

[Trainwreck20]

Heh, according to the actuarial people, I have about a 11% chance of being around to worry about the population in 2070.

[TheOverdog]

Plano 292,656

Plano's current population is pretty close to this. It's buildout population per its own government is close to 350k by 2040. Also 'landlockedness' is completely irrelevant, as the cities will increase in density, which will happen between now and 2070.

Also, their own chart has the Dallas population at 15m by 2070, but the major cities listed only account for about 50% of the population, whereas they account for about 60% today.