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If British Public votes for Brexit, Article 50 will be imposed which will give UK 2 years to negotiate their exit. I am not sure that article 50 will start from June 24th or they will wait for some time before implementing it. So for 2 years time, everything will stay same.
What will be interesting is after the referendum when we see how the voting was spread nationally with city by city and urban data. Interesting to me anyhow.
What will be interesting is after the referendum when we see how the voting was spread nationally with city by city and urban data. Interesting to me anyhow.
Similar problems here in the US. Just this week the polls had Clinton and Sanders only 2 points apart in the California Primary. She won by 13.
One issue the article didn't mention (maybe because it's not such a big problem in the UK), is the increasing difficulty and unreliability of telephone polls generally.
Because so many have cut the cord and are now mobile phone only, and because so many are on government maintained "do not call" lists, for both land line and mobile, it is becoming much more difficult to get reliable data from telephone surveys. Also, unlike land lines, with mobile, you can have an area code that is not fixed to your geographic location. Dial a New York area code and you can end up speaking with someone who hasn't lived in NY in 10 years, and may now be living in LA.
I think the NPR piece misses one of the possible outcomes which is that the UK stays in the EU but the issues that the UK are concerned about such as access to benefits and the NHS for immigrants (rather than immigration itself) and democratic accountability in Brussels gets addressed.
What people forget is that the UK exiting is bad news for the EU. Look how hard the EU has tried to keep Greece afloat and they are still a basket case. Are they really going to just let their 2nd biggest economy and 2nd biggest budget contributor ride off into the sunset? I don't think so. I think it will simply trigger new negotiations followed by a new vote on an improved deal for the UK.
The EU was not trying the keep Greece afloat. It was trying to keep the French and German banks afloat. Very little of the rescue package actually went to the Greek economy. The EU didn't do Greece any favour.
The think tank report linked at the top of the piece has bunch of reference links at the end.
Quote:
Brexit would hit the Dutch economy hard: report
-- By Hortense Goulard
6/9/16, 9:10 AM CET
A Brexit would have a “severe” impact on the Dutch economy, because it is linked to the U.K. more than to the rest of the EU, according to a report by a Dutch public think-tank published Thursday.
In total, the Netherlands stands to lose up to €10 billion if Brits vote to leave the EU at the June 23 referendum, or 1.2 percent of the Dutch GDP by 2030, said the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).
Losses for the Netherlands would be highest if the U.K. and the EU do not strike a free trade agreement, but decide to trade within the frame of the World Trade Organization, according to the report.
“When we also account for the potential impact of trade‐induced innovation, the costs for the Netherlands, in the WTO scenario, will increase to 2% of GDP or around 1000 euros per person,” the report states.
Other countries that will suffer highest GDP losses include Ireland, Belgium and Luxembourg, the report says: “There is a relatively large amount of trade between these countries and the UK, and they will be hit the hardest by the trade restrictions that would follow a Brexit.”
Since the Dutch economy is deeply intertwined with the British one, the Netherlands would have an interest in negotiating a free trade agreement with the U.K. to reduce trade barriers and lower the cost of Britain’s break up with the Union.
On the other end, countries in Southern and Eastern Europe will have less interest in safeguarding trade with the U.K., and could decide that the precedent if Britain preserves most of its trade with the EU would be too dangerous.
“Compared with the Netherlands, Ireland or Belgium, these countries would benefit the least from a new free trade agreement,” the report states, adding: “It is conceivable that countries with a large economic interest in such a new agreement with the U.K. will not be able to muster the support of all EU member states.”
But should the 27 remaining EU members set high trade barriers to punish the U.K. for leaving the EU and warn others not to follow Britain’s departure, the Dutch economy would be among the first to suffer, according to the report.
Switzerland and Norway do just fine outside the EU. Numerous other countries such as Austria, Finland, and Sweden prospered before they joined in the 1990s. Some countries have used the EU to great advantage- Ireland comes to mind. Some have used it to shoot themselves in the foot- Greece.
The UK, warts and all, is a successful country. Countries inside or outside of the EU have always and will always want to trade with them. The Netherlands is not going to cease trading Heineken for Samuel Smith just because the UK is no longer subject to Brussels. They'll probably keep a large portion of the regulations just to make sure things run smoothly.
Having said that, I doubt the UK will vote to leave. Nations usually balk at making big changes.
Switzerland and Norway do just fine outside the EU. Numerous other countries such as Austria, Finland, and Sweden prospered before they joined in the 1990s. Some countries have used the EU to great advantage- Ireland comes to mind. Some have used it to shoot themselves in the foot- Greece.
The UK, warts and all, is a successful country. Countries inside or outside of the EU have always and will always want to trade with them. The Netherlands is not going to cease trading Heineken for Samuel Smith just because the UK is no longer subject to Brussels. They'll probably keep a large portion of the regulations just to make sure things run smoothly.
Having said that, I doubt the UK will vote to leave. Nations usually balk at making big changes.
Switzerland and Norway are part of Schengen Area. People from other Schengen EU countries can drive or walk into Norway and Switzerland without any need of Visa Check.
By contrast, even though UK is a part of EU, Passports are always checked while entering the UK.
Somebody with German Passport can enter Non-EU country Switzerland without showing Passport but the same German Citizen has to show Passport before entering UK.
Referendum will change that even further as far as UK is concerned. I do not think that UK wants to have Visa Free access with EU even after Brexit. Then what is the need for Referendum?
Switzerland and Norway are part of Schengen Area. People from other Schengen EU countries can drive or walk into Norway and Switzerland without any need of Visa Check.
By contrast, even though UK is a part of EU, Passports are always checked while entering the UK.
Somebody with German Passport can enter Non-EU country Switzerland without showing Passport but the same German Citizen has to show Passport before entering UK.
Referendum will change that even further as far as UK is concerned. I do not think that UK wants to have Visa Free access with EU even after Brexit. Then what is the need for Referendum?
So what?
Showing a passport is a very simple task. Procuring a visa is at worst a very minor annoyance.
I have visited the UK several times. I showed my passport, answered their questions, and went on my way. Took all of 10 minutes, probably less. It was hardly akin to visiting the old DDR and being barked at by the guardians of the socialist paradise.
The UK was excused from Schengen. Is that due to change? Are they being forced into it?
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