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Look, the British Empire fell apart, the Commonwealth is a fragile gauze at best, the Anglosphere an economic pipedream...why not the EU, or the US? None of it will last in its presently recognizable form, much less forever. Too many countries or political factions have their dreams of greatness largely predicated on the collapse of rivals, which is a good sign that their own guts are worn out.
Time to give all the Brexit-born plots and conspiracy theories a rest, and just get on with making the changes needed internally for the stability of the UK and the benefit of its people.
Of course everything will fall apart eventually, come back in 1,000 years and none of the countries and organisations we see today are likely to be around. But I don't think that's what this guy is talking about, he's predicting an imminent collapse in the short to medium term, in the same way as has been predicted pretty much ever since the Euro was created, but which hasn't yet happened.
WTO had no issue with the lack of formal border control since 1923.
Nothing has materially changed in WTO rules since before the UK and Ireland joined the common customs union, and they had an open border before then.
So why is this an issue? Theres already a formal agreement between UK/Eire for an open border, that's all that is required by the WTO. The agreement is called the GFA. Clearly this still applies because the "backstop" is to support the GFA.
An open border would breach the WTOs discrimination regs as Irish suppliers would have a competative advantage over say Canada. That would open the way for court action and eventual enforcement.
It's not a direct requirement but then neither is the backstop.
Either way maintaining an open border with or without a deal would be a significant issue.
Of course everything will fall apart eventually, come back in 1,000 years and none of the countries and organisations we see today are likely to be around. But I don't think that's what this guy is talking about, he's predicting an imminent collapse in the short to medium term, in the same way as has been predicted pretty much ever since the Euro was created, but which hasn't yet happened.
In terms of imminent collapse I see no such thing happening in the UK.
Scotland - the SNP's power has been eroding since before the last general election as Scottish voters have tired of their disastrous handling of the economy,the police and the NHS.
Sturgeon rarely talks about IndyRef2 with any seriousness as she knows there is no chance of it either happening or passing.
The SNP's economic projections were roundly ridiculed at the last referendum - and even they were based on oil at more than 100 bucks a barrel.It's now at $59 a barrel.
NI - people still vote on religious and tribal lines.At the last major poll on a border vote a majority of Catholics in Northern Ireland voted against a united Ireland at the moment.They rather like their free healthcare and generous government subsidies towards their public sector jobs.
It's also doubtful if even a majority of people in the Republic want a united Ireland now.Certainly none of the many Irish people I speak to want it.Some of them literally shudder at the thought.
Wales - voted in favour of Leave.
Now,if you were to ask English folk I'm sure a majority of them would be quite happy to have England as an independent country.Most of the population,wealth and earning potential is based there anyway.
Of course everything will fall apart eventually, come back in 1,000 years and none of the countries and organisations we see today are likely to be around. But I don't think that's what this guy is talking about, he's predicting an imminent collapse in the short to medium term, in the same way as has been predicted pretty much ever since the Euro was created, but which hasn't yet happened.
Yes, I understood that.
But in the same way, this thread is about the imminent collapse of the UK rather than the euro or the EU. Is one more likely than the other? I think it depends on how we slice and dice "collapse." In the lifetimes of many people writing here the UK has devolved like few would have imagined in 1945 or even later, and the European continent has become more centralized. And now these things are the norm, despite the rantings of various fringes.
Twenty, forty years from now the Brexited version of the UK will have become something else entirely, and the EU may not exist as the EU we know know.
I think some of the diatribes and fulminations on the Brexit topic ignore how totally dead the Great Britain and the continental Europe of only a handful of decades ago are. And how totally dead the entities which result from Brexit are likely to be in a short number of years as well. Young people in their twenties and thirties don't give a fart in a jug about this issue on either side of the Channel in the way that we participants in this thread do.
No petition is ever going to get up to the numbers that an election or referendum will, i don't really see the point of it myself except to register that a lot of people are very pissed off with the idea of Brexit, but we knew that anyway, and there would also be a lot of people pissed off if Brexit doesn't happen.
Anyway, it seems that there are increasing moves within the cabinet to remove Theresa May, though they can't do it via a Conservative Party leadership election for several months so I guess they are going she will resign voluntarily which doesn't seem in character for her, she's nothing if not stubborn.
But in the same way, this thread is about the imminent collapse of the UK rather than the euro or the EU. Is one more likely than the other? I think it depends on how we slice and dice "collapse." In the lifetimes of many people writing here the UK has devolved like few would have imagined in 1945 or even later, and the European continent has become more centralized. And now these things are the norm, despite the rantings of various fringes.
Twenty, forty years from now the Brexited version of the UK will have become something else entirely, and the EU may not exist as the EU we know know.
I think some of the diatribes and fulminations on the Brexit topic ignore how totally dead the Great Britain and the continental Europe of only a handful of decades ago are. And how totally dead the entities which result from Brexit are likely to be in a short number of years as well. Young people in their twenties and thirties don't give a fart in a jug about this issue on either side of the Channel in the way that we participants in this thread do.
That's true, i guess the UK leaving the EU would in itself mean the current EU breaking up, and if Scotland chose to leave the UK that would mean the UK was breaking up. But the EU would still be here if the UK left, and the UK would still exist if Scotland left, its just that both would be a bit smaller and less influential than if they didn't split up.
I don't think either could really be called 'a collapse' in the same way that the USSR collapsed or Yugoslavia collapsed, but there's a chance it could lead to that kind of collapse further down the line.
I live in Scotland and like most here do not want to leave the UK. Those who do lost an awful lot of Council seats, Scottish Parliament MSP's and UK MP's. That corner simply ignores the hard truth that the majority of Scotland's trade is with the UK. The Nationalists also lost UK MP seats in the north east of Scotland which has a bug fishing industry hampered by the EU and the SNP lost seats there. So no benefit to us being in the EU.
It strikes me that all those MP's in the Commons creating hell on earth have simply ignored the referendum vote and come up with damn nonsense to say that people did not really understand what leaving meant. Parliament has made a farce of itself and the idea of a series of referendums to suit each lot that lose is that next?? We are a bad enough nonsense over what MP's are doing against the will of the people but Europe is no angel. Germany and France run the EU and the smaller countries will bow down as they cannot run themselves without getting money dished out to them. There is dissension in some, antagonism and the organisation is a farce.
Why petition? They will still be short by the same million people that voted to remain 2 years ago
If they let the petition go on, someone will start a leave petition later on
Clearly it's another backstop in case the Uri Geller option fails.
Seriously, at this stage I don't think a "leave petition" would do nearly as well, in part because protesting the status quo generally excites more passion, and because people have seen what a dog's dinner the pols have made of the process so far. People want to be done with this, it has wrecked the country.
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