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You are referring to CTA, the free movement of people, not goods.
The movement of goods is unfrettered right now because both NI and RoI are part of the EU. Which provides the legal framework for goods and regulations.
Now that you're leaving that legal framework you are going to be trading goods under WTO rules. Other WTO members get equal treatment.
I understand the UK have already claimed they'll drop tariffs on 87% of goods, but not things like meats. Can you describe how the UK will manage to levy tariffs on meats that enter NI from the Republic without checks or borders?
It doesn't matter. De Jure since 1921 the Irish border has been ope for both people and goods.
Other WTO members get the same treatment, unless the joining country has pre-existing agreements. This is weird because the UK never left the WTO, but, could not trade under WTI terms except as part if Europe. There's no reason to presume it would not be treated as a newly joining member.
That's the key information you're missing or ignoring.
India does not have a free trade agreement with the EU. A tariff would be applicable to goods entering Ireland from India. I suspect the tariff would be equal to the tariff the U.K. would impose if the goods were shipped directly to the U.K. from India. i.e. WTO rules.
It still leaves the UK at a disadvantage, and provides zero incentive to India to do a deal. No upside, only downside.
I’m baffled how a tongue-in-cheek comment by a Canadian with zero connection to the U.K. and little knowledge of Ireland and U.K. relations would give you insight into the British mind. As an outsider with no emotional connections, and comparing population sizes, I just see a case of “the tail wagging the dog.”
It doesn't matter. De Jure since 1921 the Irish border has been ope for both people and goods.
Other WTO members get the same treatment, unless the joining country has pre-existing agreements. This is weird because the UK never left the WTO, but, could not trade under WTI terms except as part if Europe. There's no reason to presume it would not be treated as a newly joining member.
That's the key information you're missing or ignoring.
People, yes, goods, no. Even during early EU the CAP required extensive paperwork, and a system of subsidies and levies, payable or refunded depending on what product was moving in which direction.
A consequence of the UK failing to erect border controls on the N.I. border is that not just EU goods, but goods from all over the world that have been legally imported into the EU would also have a tariff free route into the UK, while UK goods would still be subject to both EU and RoW tariffs.
It's certainly possible, but definitely not smart.
Why would India, or any other country. do a trade deal with the UK, if they could gain competitive advantage by simply availing of an unprotected border?
Then the UK would be importing from the EU, not India.
The Indian Corp would have to have an EU subsidiary that could transfer those goods to Ireland, then ship across the Irish border to the UK.
Given the quantities of goods needed to make this financially viable it becomes practically difficult. Half a dozen connexes of clothes isn't enough to make much impression on excise fees to the UK, a few hundred and it's something to worry about, however, the EU and India have no trade agreement, thus there's little gain, any small benefit would be consumed by higher transport costs in Europe by the exporter, that would need to be paid in excess of direct to UK transport.
In the end the situation stays the same, either Ireland accepts special status within the EU, the UK accepts at least the possibility of Northern Ireland having a special status within the UK or there is an impasse.
Given that the pm has already voted for the backstop it's the most likely, just the small matter of needing the DUP for a majority.
In the case of No-Deal Brexit on 31st October, 2019 - what will happen with regard to people movement between UK and the EU. After that day, Visa/Permit will be required or will there be a grace period for movement of people ? Technically Brexit will not be a Brexit if free movement continues ?
Anyone remembers here of 1950s,1960s ?In those days, people of France or Belgium Paspsorts used to apply for British Visa and get their Passport stamped at the Border while entering Great Britain or what ?
Then the UK would be importing from the EU, not India.
The Indian Corp would have to have an EU subsidiary that could transfer those goods to Ireland, then ship across the Irish border to the UK.
Given the quantities of goods needed to make this financially viable it becomes practically difficult. Half a dozen connexes of clothes isn't enough to make much impression on excise fees to the UK, a few hundred and it's something to worry about, however, the EU and India have no trade agreement, thus there's little gain, any small benefit would be consumed by higher transport costs in Europe by the exporter, that would need to be paid in excess of direct to UK transport.
For non technical Indian products (70% of total), EU subsidiaries of Indian companies, are much less likely to be needed.
As to additional freight charges of getting product from say Rotterdam to Dublin, so that it could cross an open border into the UK? They are likely to be marginal on top of the primary freight charge from India.
No impex transaction should live or die based on freight charges, because they can fluctuate widely. Just look at the Baltic Dry, it lost 94% of its value in one six month period. Currently it costs double to send a container from EU to US, than the reverse. Same with US China.
Under an open N.I. border arrangement, theoretically, India pays tariffs to EU, continues to collect tariffs from both EU and UK. The UK collects zero tariffs from India. Multiply that by every other country.....
UK manufacturers are disadvantaged, pressure on jobs wages etc.
Then the UK would be importing from the EU, not India.
The Indian Corp would have to have an EU subsidiary that could transfer those goods to Ireland, then ship across the Irish border to the UK.
That's not how it works, Free Trade Agreements have 'rules of origin' clauses so that you can't do that. If it is made in India then its an import from India and tariffs on imports from India apply regardless of whether it comes via another country. Otherwise trade agreements would be meaningless, you could just import everything through a country with which you have no tariffs regardless of the country or was originally produced in.
It doesn't matter. De Jure since 1921 the Irish border has been ope for both people and goods.
Other WTO members get the same treatment, unless the joining country has pre-existing agreements. This is weird because the UK never left the WTO, but, could not trade under WTI terms except as part if Europe. There's no reason to presume it would not be treated as a newly joining member.
That's the key information you're missing or ignoring.
The constitutional status of Ireland changed after 1921.
There is no preexisting agreement that hasn't been superceeded by ascension to the EU.
As a matter of fact everything i've read points to the UK's 'open border' idea as a non-runner.
Quote:
How will the Irish border system work?
The government also announced that it will not introduce any new checks or controls, or require customs declarations for nearly all goods moving from across the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland in the event the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
The move, to avoid friction at the UK's land border with the EU, will be temporary while a long solution is found.
The government said tariffs will be payable on goods moving from the EU into the rest of the UK via Northern Ireland.
It insisted that this would create no border down the Irish sea because there would be no checks on goods moved between Northern Ireland and Britain.
But Prof Winters said it "almost certainly" violates World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules that demand equal treatment for all trading partners, he said.
"Leaving the Irish border open also opens up the possibility of some EU goods being shipped to the UK via Ireland and so avoiding UK tariffs."
Lord Mandelson, the former Labour trade secretary and former European commissioner, said a free-for-all on the border was not sustainable under international law.
“Refusing to comply with our responsibilities under international trade law to operate a customs border at any frontier is not a serious or sustainable solution to the problem of a hard border that Brexit – of any variety – threatens,” he said.
Can you show any credible sources that indicate this is incorrect?
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