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In the natural signs department, I've read reports of woolly bear sightings across the continent (yes, it's that time of year again ). All of the verified sightings across the United States have been all black and many have thick fur (or bristles if you prefer). The only exception is the West Coast, where a woolly sighted in British Columbia was half black and half brown. Using what folklore says, the impression from the sightings thus far is that about half of the winter will be cold everywhere and the other half will be cold in the East and Central regions, and mild in the West. Strangely enough this conforms to some of the model forecasts that I posted a while back .
There have also been anomalies with birds in the northern tier, with one location in Maine falling silent and native birds departing earlier than usual; where they are going hasn't been determined yet. There has been unusually high squirrel and acorn activity so far, including a good proportion of the squirrels being black squirrels, a creature which supposedly only appears once every century and heralds a record-breaking winter (a "black squirrel winter" (cool name, isn't it?)), but which has been sighted for the past 3 consecutive years (including the big winters of 2010 and 11 but also the non-winter of 2012), each time with increasing numbers.
Put whatever amount of stock you will into natural signs and folklore; I just want to post what I've seen in that department so that everyone here knows about what's going on and so we can look on the predictions in retrospect. Yearly assessments of this lore and comparisons to actual results is vital to understanding how valid (or invalid) it is. I've recently assessed the natural signs and folklore for the upcoming winter and looking up the Almanacs and their forums was part of that. One thing's for sure: the woolly bears and birds can't do any worse than Accuweather did last winter.
In the natural signs department, I've read reports of woolly bear sightings across the continent (yes, it's that time of year again ). All of the verified sightings across the United States have been all black and many have thick fur (or bristles if you prefer).
On that note..
I can't comment much on the worms because I havent followed them much. But acorns are dropping a bit earlier this year. (usually drop end of September) and Leaves are changing around here.
Here's a picture Wave3Weather posted. What does this mean?
I can't comment much on the worms because I havent followed them much. But acorns are dropping a bit earlier this year. (usually drop end of September) and Leaves are changing around here.
Cambium I was reading the other about the acorns falling already and according to the tree experts who commented on the article said it was due to the drought much of the US experienced this year and the tree shedding moisture sucking acorns in order for the new acorns and the tree to survive since there was limited water for it.
Myself, I'd prefer it meant that the tree knew the US will be experiencing the worst winter in 80yrs and was in survival mode helping out all the members of the rodent family make it through a winter that will start snowing Oct 15th with snow lasting until May1st. Now I'm sure some will come along and want to poke me in the eye for saying that, but having a barn burner of a winter once in a while sure would be nice. Calling for frost again tonight, second time this month already, which is unusual, especially this soon in Sept.
Last edited by NorthernMoose; 09-18-2012 at 07:10 PM..
According to the Old Farmer's Almanac, the longer the middle brown band, the milder and shorter the coming winter; the shorter the brown band, the longer and more severe winter will be.
The truth behind the woolly worms/bear's band length actually has more to do with its age than with predicting the weather. As the caterpillar prepares to overwinter, it molts, becoming less black and more reddish-brown as it ages. Woolly worms overwinter from September to May and are commonly found along nature trails and wooded edges and crossing sidewalks and roadways seeking overwintering sites.
Cambium I was reading the other about the acorns falling already and according to the tree experts who commented on the article said it was due to the drought much of the US experienced this year and the tree shedding moisture sucking acorns in order for the new acorns and the tree to survive since there was limited water for it.
Myself, I'd prefer it meant that the tree knew the US will be experiencing the worst winter in 80yrs and was in survival mode helping out all the members of the rodent family make it through a winter that will start snowing Oct 15th with snow lasting until May1st. Now I'm sure some will come along and want to poke me in the eye for saying that, but having a barn burner of a winter once in a while sure would be nice. Calling for frost again tonight, second time this month already, which is unusual, especially this soon in Sept.
Have severe drought years in the past produced similar results for acorns, regardless of the following winter? That is the best determiner of if it's drought stress or a "real" early acorn drop. Of course, there's no doubt that there has been drought stress, but there are ways to differentiate. Acorns are falling at the same exact time in northern New England, and they are in no drought whatsoever and haven't been in one recently either, so obviously there is some element of a true early drop (at least in the Northeast).
As for a barnburner winter, those are nice to have once in a while.
Quote:
Originally Posted by firinmahlaza
The truth behind the woolly worms/bear's band length actually has more to do with its age than with predicting the weather. As the caterpillar prepares to overwinter, it molts, becoming less black and more reddish-brown as it ages. Woolly worms overwinter from September to May and are commonly found along nature trails and wooded edges and crossing sidewalks and roadways seeking overwintering sites.
Well, the prevailing color of woolly worms I see in a given year don't change with time from black to orange, so I'm not exactly convinced. In any case we're compiling some data here about these signs in folklore, and thus we'll have a better basis in the future for determining if it has any predictive value.
Where I live in North Carolina, I believe that we aren't in a drought this year or at least a bad one and we do have leaves changing already along the Blue Ridge Parkway and around my house.
Cambium I was reading the other about the acorns falling already and according to the tree experts who commented on the article said it was due to the drought much of the US experienced this year and the tree shedding moisture sucking acorns in order for the new acorns and the tree to survive since there was limited water for it.
Myself, I'd prefer it meant that the tree knew the US will be experiencing the worst winter in 80yrs and was in survival mode helping out all the members of the rodent family make it through a winter that will start snowing Oct 15th with snow lasting until May1st. Now I'm sure some will come along and want to poke me in the eye for saying that, but having a barn burner of a winter once in a while sure would be nice. Calling for frost again tonight, second time this month already, which is unusual, especially this soon in Sept.
Thank You, makes sense in a way but I guess easily proven. Unfortunetly I dont have an acorn drop memory so maybe I can prove the past with that theory. lol Then again... I am well above normal for rainfall this year/summer right where the tree is so maybe that theory isnt true after all. LOL
But yes... You should be seeing snowflakes this weekend. Keep us posted in the fall thread on that!
Originally I started this thread to keep track of what sources were saying for this coming winter... Its going to be hard looking through 380 posts now LOL. Its all good.. keep up the great posts guys.
NOAA continues with the warm temps mostly. I have not seen them use blues in the long range in years now. lmao. Geesus.
The snow growth over the Polar regions has certainly caught my eye this morning. Remember a few weeks ago I noted that one of the most important observations of the up coming winter is going to be the growth of a snow pack in northwestern Canada and northeastern Alaska as this is where most of our Polar/Arctic air masses come from.
This morning we are seeing that the snow growth in these locations are already above normal as there shouldn’t be any snowfall in these locations yet compared to climatology. However, where the snow should be falling, we are still lagging behind, especially over the Arctic Circle.
With the Arctic Oscillation expected to pivot back to the north late next week, I do expect the snow growth to catch up around the Arctic circle, especially as sea ice starts to rapidly rebound. Then we can start to see some real impact in the snow growth over northwestern Canada. The deeper the snow pack in these locations, the more impressive the Polar air masses will become. Think of this set up like prepping your freezer. If you don’t lay down the proper insulation to ensure the building of cold air, then you don’t reach optimal freezing temperatures. Same idea here. The more snow growth and depth over northern Canada, the stronger and colder the Polar air masses will become. Today’s observations point to the potential for very cold air masses over Canada and if the pattern is right, the Eastern and Central United States.
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Natural Signs and Folklore thus Far
). All of the verified sightings across the United States have been all black and many have thick fur (or bristles if you prefer). The only exception is the West Coast, where a woolly sighted in British Columbia was half black and half brown. Using what folklore says, the impression from the sightings thus far is that about half of the winter will be cold everywhere and the other half will be cold in the East and Central regions, and mild in the West. Strangely enough this conforms to some of the model forecasts that I posted a while back 
.
