Predict your climate averages for 100 years into the future (2015, city, world)

[Sickandtiredofthis]

This is an interesting preposition.

It's hard to predict because I don't know what way things are swinging? Lately we've been colder.

January: 5.8c/0.4c
February: 6.3c/0.8c
March: 7:9c/1.3c
April: 11.7c/2.9c
May: 14.6c/6.5c
June: 17.2c/8.8c
July: 19.0c/9.9c
August: 19.1c/9.8c
September: 17.7c/9.2c
October: 13.7c/6.7c
November: 8.1c/2.2c
December: 6.1c/1.6c

[Sickandtiredofthis]

Originally Posted by irlinit

So whether you believe in global warming or not, please post your predictions of the averages of your climate now, followed by your predictions for 100 years time.

For my area in London, there has been a noticeable warming trend.. minima are higher than they used to be thanks in part to the UHI, but also temperatures in general have risen in recent decades for almost every month.

Current averages in degrees celcius:

Jan: 8/2
Feb: 9/2
Mar: 12/4
Apr: 14/6
May: 18.0/9
Jun: 21.0/12
Jul: 24/14
Aug: 23/14
Sep: 20/11
Oct: 16/8
Nov: 11/5
Dec: 8/3

Average absolute max each year: 33.4C/92F

2114 predictions:

Jan: 10/3
Feb: 11/3
Mar: 14/5
Apr: 16/7
May: 20/10
Jun: 23/14
Jul: 26/16
Aug: 26/16
Sep: 22/14
Oct: 17/10
Nov: 14/7
Dec: 11/4

Average absolute max each year: 35.8C/96F


This is based on about a 1-2C increase in temperature for the majority of the months including bigger UHI.

Generally it would be a much better climate for me, and would be very close to being classified as subtropical with a July mean of 21C

11c average high in winter? Really!? I don't think so..

[Sickandtiredofthis]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

London and the UK in general are going to see the least amount of warming when compared to the rest of Europe. That's obviously because of the Atlantic's influence.



Personally, I think these models are full of crap. I doubt there will be more than an additional 1C rise in mean temps within the next 100 years.

This is absolute bull. Why do they even put this crap out. This is nothing more than alarmism

I think it might cool where I live.

[Guajara]

Here is my Prediction for Munich City 2081-2110


Munich has already warmed up immensely the last few years.
Here are averages from the Munich City weather station for the last 10 years ( August 2005-August 2015)
Klima München - Wetterdienst.de

[chicagogeorge]

If you believe the climate models this is how many 90F/32C days Chicago/ORD will get. Currently OD averages 17 such days (MDW averages 23).



Here's How Many Ridiculously Hot Days Your City Will Have in the Future | Mother Jones


Ironically, we have been going in the exact opposite direction then they forecast models

[alphatier]

That's because of the Cold Epoch. I'm certain the trend will reverse soon.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by alphatier

That's because of the Cold Epoch. I'm certain the trend will reverse soon.

You're kidding right? There is no cold epoch, and there is no evidence that points to any reversal in trends for the Midwest.


Our extreme heat has become a thing of the past it seems, or at least much more rare. Though, our average temperatures have climbed a little bit.






Some point to the fact that our summers are getting muggier. Higher dew points make it more difficult for temps to climb that high, but keep nights warmer, and heat indecies higher





Winters are generally getting milder (though the trend seems to have reversed the last 5 years)


http://www.climatecentral.org/news/s...ur-state-18608

[Crunch41]

In 100 years: they should be about the same temperature-wise, but 5-10" wetter.
For each normal period, average temperature in January/July/Annual and then annual precipitation (deg F and in)

1921-1950 19.1 / 73.0 / 46.6 // 30.00 (warmest normals, warmest summer and winter)
1931-1960 18.0 / 71.1 / 45.3 // 30.16
1941-1970 16.8 / 70.1 / 44.9 // 30.25 (coldest normals, coldest summer)
1951-1980 15.6 / 70.6 / 45.2 // 30.84(coldest winter)
1961-1990 16.0 / 71.0 / 45.2 // 30.88
1971-2000 17.3 / 71.6 / 46.1 // 32.95
1981-2010 18.8 / 71.3 / 46.4 // 34.48

2081-2110 23.8 / 74.3 / 50.2 // 45.06 (linear extrapolation from 1941-1970)
2081-2110 18.3 / 68.5 / 46.1 // 41.95 (linear extrapolation from 1921-1950)


Edit: Found images of the long-term temperature, snowfall, precipitation, etc at this site.



The diurnal range probably didn't change as much as it looks. Data was taken in the city (early years) and airport in later years. Before 1896 temperatures were only recorded at 7am, 2pm, and 7pm so the max/min wasn't always the true value.





Except for a few extremely wet years in the early 1880s, most of the wettest years have been recent.



Snowfall has been up since the 1950s or so. 2013-2014 had about 60" of snow, 2014-2015 had a little under 30".


Temperatures have stayed similar and so has the annual maximum temperature, but the heating degree days have trended downward, annual minimum temperature has been milder as of late, and the average ice cover at the largest lake in Madison (Lake Mendota) has decreased steadily:

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

If you believe the climate models this is how many 90F/32C days Chicago/ORD will get. Currently OD averages 17 such days (MDW averages 23).



Here's How Many Ridiculously Hot Days Your City Will Have in the Future | Mother Jones


Ironically, we have been going in the exact opposite direction then they forecast models

Hmm...






https://twitter.com/SteveSGoddard/st...65875945078784

[johnel]

Here are a couple of data visualizations I put together. It's based on the NASA NEX-GDDP climate projections at RCP 8.5 using data for 2015, 2050 and 2100. Click on a visualization to go to the blog post and interact with it.

All data compare future US & Canadian climate analogs with present-day cities. Unsurprisingly, the data show that matches are closer to the equator in future years, but some of the matches are interesting. It's also intriguing that southern cities seem to be less impacted (as shown by blue lines) than mid and upper-latitude cities.








To skip the blog posts and go straight to the main site to browse the data, go here.