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This backdoor cold front just put a nail in the coffin ensuring September to be below average here
As you are aware, I want at least April through October to be above average.... Don't care if November and March go either way really. Wan't December through February to be below average
Latest GFS. Check out how everything flows and loops around. Focus on one thing and see how it evolves.
It loops forward and back from today to October 8th.
For instance, blues are below freezing,, look at the cold air dive down towards great lakes and most importantly watch that Upper level Low sit and spin there in southern Canada days after. That would keep Canada and upper Midwest cold for many days.
Then watch as the below freezing temps aloft clips New England and rotates back around into Canada. The air isn't forcefully cold (its only October!) and the strength of the Polar Jet is not strong yet so it doesn't push south into the Mid Atlantic of course.
I think the position of the Atlantic ridge next week will prevent the real cold air from forcing down into Northeast.
But at least now you have an idea how things are flowing and rotating around.
Check out this station in Oregon. Talk about a pattern change. Well above normal in the mid-Upper 80s and tonight there's a freeze warning in the 20s. Looks like things changed after the 24th.
I believe there was an Upper Level Low.
(reminder: ULL = Cool and Cloudy and in winter = Cold, unsettled, snow showery)
First Santa Ana Winds of the season!
Also very hot weather starting thursday!
yikes! Keep us posted how bad they get.
There was a desert wind blowing that night. It was one of those hot dry Santa Anas that come down through the mountain passes and curl your hair and make your nerves jump and your skin itch. On nights like that every booze party ends in a fight. Meek little wives feel the edge of the carving knife and study their husbands' necks. Anything can happen. You can even get a full glass of beer at a cocktail lounge.
That pattern will leave Western Europe and N Europe warm for the season with W and SW/S air flow (except maybe Iceland).
While in Eastern Europe, high pressure will give beautiful sunny days and probably cold nights. Furthest east in Europe, in Russia, cold N air flow, might swing around that H pressure and hit the Balkans too (but not as cold as in Russia).
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