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I wonder if that is a cold signal for the US for December/January?
I'm not too keen on the MJO stuff but here's a link that relates the phases to temps and precip.. Click on DJF then see what Phase 3 is on average.. You wont like it. lol
but notice the precip probabilities. East Coast! Something we're seeing with the parade of storms coming up.
Some good news today from NOAA. It may be a light white Christmas after all:
The 00z ECMWF and latest 06z NAM is a little more bullish with QPF
than the 00z GFS but all suggest a light QPF event. Minor
accumulations will be possible...maybe around an inch of light
snow. The overall message for Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning is there will be some light wintry weather in the area and
may have some impacts on travel early Thursday morning.
That system moves out during the day on Thursday and cloudy skies
will remain. The second system for Friday through Saturday morning
could be more interesting depending on the exact track and
strength of the shortwave trough moving through. The medium range
guidance along with the GFS and ECMWF have some differences in the
solutions. The ECMWF would suggest a track further southeast
bringing a better chance for light snow to the Ozarks. Will
mention the potential for minor accumulations possible Friday and Friday
night with the second system. Next weekend looks cold with
temperatures slightly below average. Just beyond this forecast
time...the 7 to 10 days long range model output looks like more
active weather possible just before Christmas.
Euro opens the Flood Gates. Friggin Finally. OPEN WIDE!
Euro12z last frame long range hr240.
Question is, will they stay open for winter.
Normal 850mb temp in Minnesota is -6 to -10C. So while this right here isn't extreme, it would be well below normal for this time of year.
Normal for Atlanta is 5C so -5C will be COLD. This is for Christmas Day.
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