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Good question... for one I've been following the models for few years now and all the storms I seen the GFS always has a problem phasing Jet streams so it doesn't pick up big storms..
2nd.. the other models are showing it.
3rd... there's a deeper reason which I haven't spent time on meaning maybe the GFS is placing the High pressure in the wrong spot and therefore not spinning up the storm...
FYI... New Euro just out continues with the NorEaster and buries New England with snow.
Now that's an airmass/trough I like to see. I "dig" it.
A look at the Upper level steering currents for it's particular size. Bigger blocking much further north but notice the winds going west from where it is. Could still recurve since that blocking just north of it is not all that strong.
It appears as though it should strengthen to a cat 4 just about 500+ km of the first costal area of the Philippines, and turn north and degrade to a 2. I have a feeling it will probably recurve at this rate. This is of course 4 days out before we see a curve and there is plenty of room to change. I'd keep a watch through the weekend for this.
.. Weenie alert! Hype Alert! I cannot imagine the snow total maps that is going to be passed around from this...
Euro12z uses the infomercial approach..."But wait.. there's more".
Tuesday morning on left. Thursday evening on right.. 2 Snowstorms back to back, the 2nd one is for big cities to the coast with snow.
I'm just watching the awesomeness all over twitter... not HYPE stuff by any means... good, actual mets that give good reasons as to how this setup is in fact possible.
By the way... I must also follow you on twitter... LOL... you're all over my interwebs!!!
I'll have to add them... right now my main guys are Steve DiMartino... Ryan Maue... Joe Bastardi... plus a handful of TV mets and what not... but the top 3 put out really good stuff.
Speaking of TV mets... Gleen "Hurricane" Schwartz out of Philly just posted this on twitter:
"Details remain, but odds favor a Nor-Easter by end of weekend/early next week. It's Euro vs. GFS model Round #486. Guess who's favored?".
Haha.. oh glenn... trying a little humor are we?
Oh and to answer your question as far as back to back snow events like this... well... I think last February snow events were quite impressive. We actually had TWO back-to-back events that were quite impressive given the fact that after big storms there's usually a lull because the atmosphere needs to "recover"....
2/3 we had 10 inch snowfall followed by another 3 inch clipper on 2/5.
2/13 we had the 17 inch snow event followed by another 4 inches on 2/15.
Good to keep track... once or IF GFS is on board I will start a new thread for this potential storm.
Bits from latest WFO Discussions around..
NWS NY decides to stop at Sunday. LMAO! But I see "wind swept rains in there" should be fun.
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WIND SWEPT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LATE SUNDAY UNDER A FULL MOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE SUNDAY.
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014
LOOKS LIKE A COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE OFFSHORE AND PHASED OUT AS OF THIS RUN BUT AGREE WITH WPC THAT A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. COULD SEE A THUMP OF SNOW AT THE ONSET FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY TO RAIN. ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AS WELL AS SOME WIND HEADLINES
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ECMWF HINTING AT A POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM THAT MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS...HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH RAIN PRIMARILY CONFINED TO VALLEY AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE FLOW EVOLUTION PRECEDING IT MONDAY-TUESDAY.
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014
IF THE 00Z OR 12Z EURO WAS TO VERIFY A HEAVY WET SNOW STORM WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH A PROLONGED BACKSIDE UPSLOPE EVENT. THE 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF 540 DAM IS JUST TO OUR SOUTH....WITH FAVORABLE NORTHERLY SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH 996MB LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS CAPE COD.
BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROUNDS THE DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF BASE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z WEDS. ITS ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AT THIS TIME WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUES AND CONT TO WATCH FURTHER MODEL RUNS FOR THIS POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM.
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 PM EST WED DEC 3 2014
THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. THE FORMER TWO MODELS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. MEANWHILE THE GFS-BASED RUNS ARE MUCH FLATTER. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP A REX BLOCK ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER STRONG (1040+ MB) SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
Blow torch for almost the whole country except for the Southeast and Florida Possibly to continue into December with Above Average Precipitation for the West Coast.
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.. Weenie alert! Hype Alert! I cannot imagine the snow total maps that is going to be passed around from this... 
December NorEaster
But I see "wind swept rains in there" should be fun. 
