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Was just about to post 4 maps.. 1 of them I guess you'll like... maybe 2.
Current surface map... Front stalled and is STILL around Southern Florida. I think it's been days? High Pressure over North Carolina moving off shore.. A setup that would of brought tropical dewpoints here 2 months ago.
A look at the Satellite and you can see the Florida front stalled even better with a big storm in Canada near Hudson Bay. Must be Snowing and cold there? New England looks to be influenced from that low dragging some clouds over us?
Warm up this week. 90s in the Plains. 60s for here.
End of week we drop back down again... don't worry.. just chilly compared to norm, nothing like what we had. Like I said, Seasonable with chilly and warm moments next 10 days.
I sense some phasing issues in the medium range with the GFS as it really struggles to handle how strong the northern branch of the jet stream is regarding cold air in October.
I sense some phasing issues in the medium range with the GFS as it really struggles to handle how strong the northern branch of the jet stream is regarding cold air in October.
Yup.. With storms GFS typically doesn't know how to handle things.
Check out the latest Euro for next Tuesday. Boom. Phase and snowstorm for the Upper Mid West? Low sitting right there and cold enough air. 850mb freezing line down to Gulf states?
Meanwhile... The Canadian says lets slow things down and bring the storm from the Gulf to the Northeast on Thursday instead..
Notice the common theme with these 2 models today... 850mb freezing line to the Gulf states. GFS is warm...go figure but does have "a storm" just not as big as these 2 models right now.
Will either of these scenarios bring rain to us here in GA? .
Definitely on the Canadian as the system comes from the gulf but what path? The Euro also shows rain for GA but not from the system I showed. Its actually a seperate event. Hmmmm. Maybe Im glad I caught that? Perhaps a bigger storm might be in the works and more East if the 2 merge?
Anyway.. here is the precip total from the Canadian next 10 days. I ignore the greens & light blues and really focus on the heavier stuff to see where systems/fronts will make an impact.
I do believe you will get rain next week. I hope my dry days continue...until its ready to snow of course. lol
Here's an update to our long term --
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 0242 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
An upper level cut off low was currently digging south of California
and Arizona and will be the next weather maker. A weak piece of
energy will rotate through Kansas into NW Missouri late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning however most precip should stay
NW of our area. Dewpoints will be on the increase the next
several days as moisture transport continues from the south.
Models have come into decent agreement that this system will
begin to open up Thursday and lift more north than east into the
Great Plains and Dakotas. Thursday looks dry as we will still be
ahead of the system. Once the energy arrives late Thursday night,
sufficient lift and moisture will create showers and
thunderstorms Friday and potentially lasting into the weekend as
additional pieces of energy moves out of the SW flow into the
area and interact with a frontal boundary draped to our north.
This frontal boundary looks to move slowly and may not clear the
area until late Sunday. Total rainfall amounts from Friday through
Sunday look to potentially range from 1-2 inches,highest from
north to south across the CWA. This would be much welcome as the
region has been quite dry lately.
While there will likely be sufficient wind shear as this dynamic
system approaches. The limiting factor for strong to severe
thunderstorms appears to be instability. Models to indicate enough
instability for general thunderstorms, however severe thunderstorms
are not expected at this time. Dewpoints are progged to reach the
low 60s this weekend however clouds/precip may keep instability
in check. This will continue to be defined as we get closer.
Confidence then decreases as we go into early next week as models
are not in good agreement as to the upper level pattern. GFS wants
to indicate additional energy and precip on Monday and Tuesday.
Either way temperatures looks seasonable.
Large diurnal range today... 35°F at 6~7AM and 70°F at 4PM which makes 35°F difference, surprisingly warmed up so fast right after the sunrise.
Did the winds shift as well from morning to afternoon or did they change yesterday or last night?
===============
I find it interesting many of us out there are focused on Siberia snow cover, meanwhile, Ontario & Quebec areas in Canada could be getting lots of it..
Now there's a scenario for cold lovers. Imagine that part of Canada stayed with a snowpack from here on out?
if there's a snowpack down during the next cold blast, the cold will go deeper. HMMMMM. Probably why the Euro brings the Polar Jet to northern Gulf states this time.
Right now... who's reporting what. That Hudson Bay must be freezing over fast. Any snow falling on the ice will reflect sunlight even more.
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