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The Pacific Jet is strong and seasonal forecasting is rather difficult. The pattern could change and a backloaded winter could still happen, but Eurasia might be the winner this year.
About a third of the last 15 or so weak/moderate La Nina winters were mild, so there's that.
This is a weak La Nina episode currently, basin SSTs are around -0.5C below average. Weak La Nina events do not favor blow torch winters in the US. However, extreme positive anomalies in the Arctic and Canada are impacting the pattern presently.
Hour 162 Next Friday evening showing full fledge snowstorm for northern plains and northern Minnesota.
Sunday evening. Big storm in Northeast possible snow to Tennessee, KY, NC and West Virginia mountains.
Yesterday 18Z GFS model run was more impressive with cold and storm. Very warm anomalies continue, storm will only drop temperatures closer to average again.
Nov 19-21, 2016 Plains, Upper Mid West Snowstorm Update::
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Will this be the first snowstorm thread for this year? Euro showing a storm coming out of the Plains, heading into Great Lakes and up into Canada with cold enough air for maybe a snowstorm in North Dakota or Minnesota (depending on location of storm)
ALL 3 major models have it now.
Canadian12z has the heaviest snow north more than GFS & Euro and is slower with the storm.
Here's the Euro12z.. You can see the Euro says the heaviest snows is in South Dakota, not North Dakota.
6 days away, don't look at the location or amount details.
Classic South Florida fall weather continues, it seems as if the weather is stuck on "repeat" here. High of 79F and Low of 66F today under full sun. Great weather for most outdoor activities
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Max of 47° here! Whoo Hoo! 1st time since beginning of April. Felt great because there was the strong sun all day.
Who's ready for a coastal storm???
That means instead of 0.10" of rain, we'll maybe get 0.11" of rain!! Can't wait!
That sounds awful, we haven't had a high temp below 50° for almost 2 years
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