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Remember, the blob of warm SSTs off the West Coast has now disappeared. For awhile, it looked like the conveyor of Pacific air was shut off, but that only lasted two winters- 2013,14. Those were cold winters up north as most people can attest to.
Yea, those winters had a big stuck west coast ridge that funneled cold down. Pattern is gone this winter. This winter feels less variable than last.
Yea, those winters had a big stuck west coast ridge that funneled cold down. Pattern is gone this winter. This winter feels less variable than last.
On that "less variable" note......
The upper flow this morning.. Flat = boring/seasonable.
Without a wavy Jet (ridges & troughs) it's a pretty bland pattern without any big ups or downs other than maybe a day or two. So made sense you noticed there wasn't much instability with temps. We did have a couple of arctic blasts but over all, its been boring.
Not a damn thing going on here, but snow predicted in Northeast
ChicagoGeorge, look on the bright side, at least Chicago has seen 18.3 inches of snow this season, way more than the paltry 6.6 inches that Indianapolis has seen so far this winter, anyway, even if this winter was a disappointment, there's always next winter
ChicagoGeorge, look on the bright side, at least Chicago has seen 18.3 inches of snow this season, way more than the paltry 6.6 inches that Indianapolis has seen so far this winter, anyway, even if this winter was a disappointment, there's always next winter
True. Though all that snow is a distant memory since it came down during the first 3 weeks of December.
GFS showing polar vortex split by Feb 21st. Though look where the lobe of cold air is going in North America... Over the PNW
NWS NY uses the word dramatic because we're going from near record highs Wednesday to plowable snow Thursday. Amounts not mentioned, still too early. Everything is way out in the Pacific still
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
707 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017
Low pressure passing off the
coast may bring a plowable snowfall from late Wednesday night
into Thursday.
Winter makes a potentially dramatic comeback on Thursday following a
very mild Wednesday.
FCST max temps, mid to upper 50s, are within a few
degrees of records.
The system of interest is late Wednesday night into Thursday. Have
focused on ECMWF and GFS/GEFS for the forecast. The dynamics of
interest is energy still out in the Pacific where pattern is rather
chaotic with a Rex Block currently over Alaska. This energy
undercuts the Block and rapidly tracks east. The other energy is in
the north stream shortwave and is coming down the eastern side of
the Rex Block from around 80 degrees north.
The NWP is rather impressive with the rapid, but progressive
cyclogenesis. GEFS members support categorical POPs. (Note, am
discounting the NAM and CMC operational runs as do not believe
they`re fully capturing the energy.) The jet structure seen is also
impressive (though not exactly textbook). A coupled Jet with
130+ KT maxes is noted over the northeast in the predawn hours.
The other issues are boundary layer temps and timing. Temps appear
such that they should support mainly snow or rain changing to snow
along the coast. Timing, which is focused on Thursday morning, could
be 6 hours faster or slower as seen in the GEFS.
As for amounts - there are members of the GEFS with over an inch of
liquid. believe that is over a 30% potential for 6" plus. Thus,
we`ll start an "outlook" for this system. POPs were raised to likely
along the coast, but expect POPs to rise as uncertainty diminishes
over the next few days
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
559 AM EST MON FEB 6 2017
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS ON TUESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. BE SURE TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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