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Could get a repeat of yesterday's storms this evening. Hot and unstable.
Quote:
.DISCUSSION...
A short wave dropping down between the southwest US upper level
ridge and the east coast trough, will help push a weak surface
frontal boundary into and though the forecast area tonight. Plenty
of instability has been build up ahead of the front with LAPS
analysis showing latest surface based and most unstable CAPES
between 4000 and 4500 j/kg, with downdraft CAPES over 1000 j/kg,
along and north of the I-10 corridor.
Therefore, expect showers and thunderstorms, as per latest CAMs
to develop over the next couple of hours and move through during
the evening hours, mainly from 7 pm to midnight. With the high
instability levels, some of the storms could become rather robust,
with profiles suggesting strong downburst and outflow winds.
Rather intense cloud to ground lightning could also occur.
Drier air is expected to filter in behind the surface boundary and
into the forecast area on Monday. This will make for less humid
conditions, along with very limited if any chance for showers.
This relatively drier airmass will linger into Tuesday, before a
portion of the east coast upper level trough breaks off and
retrogrades west and over the forecast area by mid week. This will
provide a weakness aloft that will persist through the end of the
week. The result will be an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity.
Could get a repeat of yesterday's storms this evening. Hot and unstable.
Your Disco for My Disco....
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020
Low pressure approximately 150 miles south of Fire Island will
continue to track to the northeast through tonight. The center of
the low will pass near or over the 40N/70W benchmark around 06z
tonight and then south and east of Cape Cod by day break.
Rain bands around the NW side of the low will continue to move
across Long Island and southeast Connecticut through this evening.
Coverage of rain will be less from the NYC metro on north and west,
but some areas of light rain are still possible this evening. This
is as moisture wraps around the low as it lifts towards the
benchmark. A weak 500 mb shortwave axis will also pass overhead this
evening, supporting a low chance PoP west of the main area of rain.
Rain bands will likely linger across the east end of Long Island and
southeast Connecticut through around midnight, tapering off early
Monday morning.
The rain will be light overall, but some moderate rain is possible
at times. The heaviest rain should remain offshore closest to the
low center. An additional quarter to half inch of rain on average is
forecast. No flooding concerns with this rainfall.
As the low pulls away to the north and east, some drier air will
begin filtering southward across the area. Rain should be completely
over out east by day break.
Lows will be in the 60s across the entire area.
There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean facing
beaches through this evening..
This is all I ask for! Just this break to breath and recharge!. Wonderful day even though its raining. We're like at least a month away from 60s and no rain during the day.
I'm trying to find out when it was in the 60s at 2pm. Man this feels good!
It's in the 40s just 4000' above our heads. Between that and the clouds it's helping keep the surface cool. Also the NE winds off the ocean.
I'm hoping we get these "tastes" of fall once a week moving forward now.
I think this could be a record cold day for some places, even though this summer is hottest on record. Odd.
108f Fresno 4pm
No one's going to believe me (cbach and firebird might)
But it honestly doesn't feel that bad. There's a lot of high elevation cloud cover and a bit of a breeze.
It's WARM, but not brutally hot. If I wanted to sit outside on the patio to drink some cold beer or have a smoke, I easily could. I could also get a little work done, too(i actually need to finish a project, I think I will)
I hope the other hot days are like this :/ but I don't like the chances
Used to see 50's by Oct 10th most years when we had real winters. Even had a 58 and 62f around Sept 18th in 1980 or 81 in Tampa. Last Oct 66f was the coolest that month in my area well north of Tampa. I expect a dry and blazing fall. Still no rain for Aug.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988
I told everyone last winter this would be a record hot summer for many. Just about everyday in FL is above normal year round now. Almost no rain at all this summer for my area at around 5" total since June 13th.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988
Still not a drop of rain for Aug. Looks like this summer could be as dry or worse than 2006 the summer of no rain with 6" total. As long as we are stuck in a west flow i will never get rain. The high has not moved in months and will never move.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988
A blazing 94f today with no rain.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988
Even Cali gets more rain than i ever do. Going on 3 weeks without a drop. I get this every summer thanks to a never ending west flow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988
More than half way thru Aug and not a drop of rain.
Have you not had any rain?
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