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We actually had some thunderstorms overnight here in Indianapolis, some thunder, lightning, wind, and a lot of rain, almost a half inch of rain in about a 30 minutes period as the storms hit around 1AM. More rain on the way for today as temps once again climb into the 60s.
Tomorrow will be dry but about 30F colder than today with the high barely climbing up to freezing. Then the fun begins.
Currently, it looks like some light snow early Thursday morning that the NWS is saying will likely be more nuisance snow than anything impactful, maybe a half inch or so. A break Thursday morning before the more robust part of the system moves in and the question becomes how much warm air aloft it can bring in and where the freezing line sets up. Right here across Indianapolis we look to be smack in the transition zone with mostly rain to the south and snow to the north. Current forecast has us getting snow to start Thursday afternoon transitioning to sleet by evening. Late night could have some freezing rain mix in with the sleet before transitioning back to snow after midnight. Sleet obviously will lower the snow totals. NWS isn't giving any kind of amounts yet but it appears a glaze of ice with possible 2-4 inches of snow by Friday morning.
Then snow starts Thursday night. Could get 4" before the changeover. Ugh
Quote:
Cold 1040mb Canadian high pressure remains anchored over Ontario on
Thursday, ushering a cooler air mass relative to recent days.
Surface low pressure develops across the mid south on Thursday, and
heads through the OH Valley ahead of the aforementioned upper trough
into Friday. Models have signaled this approach for the past several
cycles.
A warm front approaches the area on Thursday night while a
secondary low develops off the DelMarVa coast by early Friday
morning. This low becomes the primary system as the mid trough
approaches the coast by later on Friday, and deepens as it moves
north of the region.
This scenario would yield a general snow to rain ptype change across
the area, with a transition to a wintry mix in between, starting
late Thursday into Fri afternoon. Snow starts at all locations
except perhaps the LI coast Thursday evening where it may mix with
rain at the onset. A pronounced warm nose is noted on model
soundings by early Friday in the 700-800mb layer, and advects north
through the CWA on Friday morning. This would yield an IP/wintry
mix transition zone before changing the ptype to all rain as the
column warms.
A dramatic look at the contrast in temperatures as one of the winter's coldest cold fronts makes its way across Oklahoma during the early morning hours of Feb. 22 from the mid-teens in the panhandle to as much as well into the 60's.
Seeing those fronts sweep across the Plains never gets old. It's almost like a horror movie as you see the cities ahead of the front still basking in mild balmy temperatures only for the monster front inevitably and ominously racing toward them.
Widespread 8-12" in Massachusetts
6-8" for northern CT and RI.
4-6" for central CT, RI and Eastern MA.
Less than 4" near the coast.
Snow starts after midnight Thursday night.
Change over happens Friday morning after sunrise sometime.
GFS last longer with the snow, NAM is quicker with the changeover.
Still watching the systems coming through tomorrow night through Thursday night though it is trending more north. Tomorrow night continues to look more and more moisture starved. NWS brought us down to just a 40% chance of snow overnight with a dusting to half inch of snow at best. A long dry period Thursday morning into the afternoon and the system trending north now looks to allow temps to warm into the mid-30s for a few hours Thursday afternoon. Eventually a rain/snow mix will move in and as the sun goes down and temps slowly fall below freezing, a transition to sleet and snow with some possible freezing rain mixing as well until it changes over to all snow after midnight. Currently looking at 0.05 to a tenth of an inch of ice possible with maybe up to an inch or so of snow and sleet accumulation. So certainly not the storm we saw a couple weeks ago that dumped well over a foot of snow on some areas north of here and 9 inches on us. But if this holds true, probably won't see more than a winter weather advisory issued for somewhere in our area for Thursday afternoon and night.
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