Uber's uberPOOL to launch in Atlanta (fit in, homes, construction)

[samiwas1]

Originally Posted by Domitian

My prediction is that "family cars" - not the Urban, quick transport cars - will be still be manually controlled (off grid) until you desire entry onto a major thoroughfare. Then you'll queue your car, the computer will take over and you'll be safely inserted into the automated traffic (on grid) until you reach your destination.

That seems reasonable to me. No problem with a car taking over once we hit the main roads or highways, but I just don't see the fully-autonomous vehicle happening for a long-ass time. Nor do I want it.

over time, more locations will be added to "the grid" so the necessity of manual control will diminish over time. Over that same time, culture, expectations, and behavior will also change so you wont expect your car to be backed into the most convenient location for your loading pleasure

If I have to walk down to the end of my street with 100 lbs. of equipment in 2-3 trips, then across a parking lot with the same on the other end, then forget it.

Originally Posted by jsvh

Yep. A more expensive, less comfortable, less convenient, and less flexible transportation option.

Wait...are you saying autonomous cars are more convenient and flexible than human-driven cars?

But as for driverless cars being able to get in / out of the garage and over to you on demand, yep, we are already there: https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/sum...sla-your-phone

Uhhh...yeah. I didn't say anything about that.

Yes. I am sure there will be way more manual trips than that. But "require" them? No.

I think you know what I meant. I don't think the number of trips in which a fully-autonomous car would not be successful is under 1000 nationwide.

Originally Posted by jsvh

It won't be the last fatality, but this is the first one in 130 million auto pilot miles (not including the millions of fatality free miles done in Google's and other self driving cars).

Human drivers average a fatality about ever 70 million miles, so already about doubling the safety of human drivers is huge. And that will only improve.

Keep in mind that autopilot is not meant for road driving, just limited-access highway driving. You cannot compare the accident rate to all human-driven miles, as a very large amount of those are done on surface streets, not limited-access highways.

[jsvh]

Originally Posted by samiwas1

Wait...are you saying autonomous cars are more convenient and flexible than human-driven cars?

Yes. No need to worry about parking, can go directly door to door.

Originally Posted by samiwas1

Keep in mind that autopilot is not meant for road driving, just limited-access highway driving. You cannot compare the accident rate to all human-driven miles, as a very large amount of those are done on surface streets, not limited-access highways.

Incorrect.

[samiwas1]

Originally Posted by jsvh

Yes. No need to worry about parking, can go directly door to door.

I don't know about your life, but mine involves a lot more than walking out to my car, taking it to an office building or shopping center with a well-defined parking lot, and leaving it there, only to return home afterwards. Until I can do everything I need to do without having to go out of my way to do it, it's not more convenient nor is it more flexible.

Even Tesla's Autopark feature says that you must get to within 40' of the parking spot, line it up, then get out and press the button so that it can park: "To prepare to park your vehicle, align Model S within 39 feet of the final parking space so Model S can move straight into the space in either Drive or Reverse. Model S will move up to 39 feet or until the sensors detect an obstacle, at which point parking is considered completed". At that point, why am I not just parking the damn car by myself? I just added a minute to the process.

As far as summon, Tesla's own release notes state: "Summon is designed and intended for use only on private residential property where the surrounding area is familiar and predictable. You must stay in proximity to your vehicle and continually monitor and maintain control of it when using this feature." Thanks...I spend a lot of time not in familiar and predictable areas. Again...what is the point, besides maybe a quick gimmick of backing out of my garage so I don't have to squeeze in?

I know it will get better and at some point you'll be able to get dropped off at the door and the car will then go away and find its own parking spot, then pick you back up at the door, but that is a long way off and will likely require major infrastructure updates to function well. Because, I don't know about where you live, but parking lots around here can be disasters.

Incorrect.

Indeed, I was reading some older release notes. So, it is restricted on certain roads. Either way, unless 7.1 has changed things, "Tesla requires drivers to remain engaged and aware when Autosteer is enabled. Drivers must keep their hands on the steering wheel." Staying engaged while not being in control is a challenge. At that point, I'd rather be driving, but have the car take over in an emergency.

I dunno. Again...I'm all for having a car that can drive me around, drop me off and park and pick me back up, let me doze off on the way. That will be awesome. I just refuse to give up complete control and the ability to navigate areas that the computer cannot. There's a whole world out there that is not well-marked roads and well-marked parking lots. Until I am forced to by law, I will not trust a car's computer 100% any more than I trust my mac's wifi to stay active without resetting it numerous times a day.

[jsvh]

You don't get it. This is just the start. Not the final set of functionality self-driving cars will offer.

If you don't think a self driving car will be able to take you on 99% of your trips in the next decade or two, you are in for a suprise.

[vwgto]

Not a regular user of Uber, and arrived in SF at around 12:30 AM. Had planned to take a rental with a colleague, but my flight was delayed for several hours. Pool came up, and alternative was surge (as I recall, 1.5 normal rate). Chose pool, and they were there in 5 minutes. Drive all the way to Palo Alto was less than $40. After a terrible flight, if I knew I was agreeing to go pick-up/drop-off other people, I never would have done it. At 12:30, I guess nobody else was looking for a ride. In hindsight, I felt bad about it (for the driver) - - as a taxi would have been closer to $100. No cash, and no obvious way to tip. Another learning experience....

[samiwas1]

Originally Posted by jsvh

You don't get it. This is just the start. Not the final set of functionality self-driving cars will offer.

If you don't think a self driving car will be able to take you on 99% of your trips in the next decade or two, you are in for a suprise.

I'm pretty sure I'm not the one who's not getting it. I've said over and over that I can see the cars being able to do most of these trips in the next couple of decades. But you also made it sound like these cars were just dropping you off at the door and going to park, then picking you up on command, which is not even close to reality. I have also said that I think you grossly underestimate the number of trips for some people that do not fall into an easily definable computer model.

What I have also said repeatedly is that I will refuse to give up my self-driven car unless the auto-driving car lets me take over in certain situations. You might be okay with not being able to get within a quarter mile of your destination with a car full of equipment because the door you need to get to is in the back of a rusty-ass warehouse in a dilapidated, unmarked, uneven parking lot overgrown with weeds and randomly-parked vehicles, and up a sideways-slanted ramp, but I am not. And yes, I did that most weekdays for months. It was, in fact, about 75% of my trips, not 1%. Many other TV/movie filming locations are not much better. Maybe I'm a special flower. My trip out to try to find food this evening would have been fun without some level of control.

I guess we'll see. You can have your fully automated car that takes you to your pre-determined, well-marked, predictable home and office building, and I'll hold out until the last day in my unpredictable, random series of destinations.

[Atlwarrior]

Originally Posted by vwgto

Not a regular user of Uber, and arrived in SF at around 12:30 AM. Had planned to take a rental with a colleague, but my flight was delayed for several hours. Pool came up, and alternative was surge (as I recall, 1.5 normal rate). Chose pool, and they were there in 5 minutes. Drive all the way to Palo Alto was less than $40. After a terrible flight, if I knew I was agreeing to go pick-up/drop-off other people, I never would have done it. At 12:30, I guess nobody else was looking for a ride. In hindsight, I felt bad about it (for the driver) - - as a taxi would have been closer to $100. No cash, and no obvious way to tip. Another learning experience....

Thank you for at lease being considerate. I drive many people from the airport who say their company pays for the ride. They say rates are too low for Uber X, and Uber offers no tip option like Lyft.

[jsvh]

Originally Posted by samiwas1

I guess we'll see. You can have your fully automated car that takes you to your pre-determined, well-marked, predictable home and office building, and I'll hold out until the last day in my unpredictable, random series of destinations.

Yep. We will see. But it won't make sense to own a car even once 75% of your trips can be done by a autonomous taxi. You can just take a human-driven Uber for those remaining 25%. And those will of course continue to fall.

I would expect anywhere that has been "scanned" by Google streetview today to be the type of coverage that autonomous cars will have in a decade.

[Domitian]

Originally Posted by jsvh

Yep. We will see. But it won't make sense to own a car even once 75% of your trips can be done by a autonomous taxi. You can just take a human-driven Uber for those remaining 25%. And those will of course continue to fall.

I would expect anywhere that has been "scanned" by Google streetview today to be the type of coverage that autonomous cars will have in a decade.

I think the challenge is going to be rural areas that aren't or cant be scanned by google. Believe me, the places I camp/fish/hike are NOT on google streetview. Do you think people are going to discontinue their extra-urban pursuits? Again, culture (and revenue) is going to be the biggest hurdle to fully autonomous transportation.


The only solution I can think of is "hubs" outside of cities where autonomous cars will drop you to exchange for a manual transport. but let's be realistic - do you truly believe Americans are going to give up their freedom to own and use manual automobiles? What about the classic cars? What am I to do with my '67 Stingray?


Forcing autonomous vehicles will create an exodus from urban areas which is the exact opposite of what planners envision.

[jsvh]

Originally Posted by Domitian

I think the challenge is going to be rural areas that aren't or cant be scanned by google. Believe me, the places I camp/fish/hike are NOT on google streetview. Do you think people are going to discontinue their extra-urban pursuits? Again, culture (and revenue) is going to be the biggest hurdle to fully autonomous transportation.


The only solution I can think of is "hubs" outside of cities where autonomous cars will drop you to exchange for a manual transport. but let's be realistic - do you truly believe Americans are going to give up their freedom to own and use manual automobiles? What about the classic cars? What am I to do with my '67 Stingray?


Forcing autonomous vehicles will create an exodus from urban areas which is the exact opposite of what planners envision.

Sure. The few times a year you need to go down that private dirt road you will probably need a human driver.

And yes, plenty of people will still drive for pleasure. Those classic cars will remain and never be automated. Just like people still like to go ride horses.

No one will be forced into an autonomous vehicle. People (slowly at first, then rapidly) will choose them because they are easier, cheaper, and safer.