Yes, You Can Build Your Way to Affordable Housing (Atlanta: employment, middle school)

[cqholt]

Originally Posted by AnsleyPark

Only if the street is wide enough to still have two traffic lanes moving. Otherwise, it can be dangerous. There is also the problem of pedestrians not being able to see oncoming traffic because their line of sight is blocked by a Ford Expedition. Than can be very dangerous. And, its unattractive to boot.

Once again putting cars above people. How long until you move to the Redneck Riviera?

[fourthwarden]

January of this year saw the continuation of the same pattern in rising housing prices that we've seen over the past 5 years. That is, that, after a pleatued Aug-Dec section of the previous year, prices are leaping up once more.

Metro Atlanta home prices climb faster than nation’s, says Case Shiller

Metro Atlanta home prices rose 6.5 percent during the past year, outpacing the national average and increasingly squeezing first-time homebuyers, according to a high-profile analysis issued Tuesday.

Atlanta’s average home price increase was the 11th fastest growing of the 20 largest metro areas and was stronger than the national pace of 6.2 percent, according to the monthly report from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.

After the national housing bubble burst in 2006 – a year before the bust hit Atlanta – average home prices hit bottom in 2012. But since then, home prices have risen at twice the rate of overall economic growth, which also means growing faster than wages.

That squeeze on affordability also keeps more people in the rental market, adding to demand there. Rents in Atlanta in the past year are up faster than all but four other metros.

Job growth and population growth have been steadily adding to demand for housing in metro Atlanta.

And while that climb may be enabled by economic basics, it gets an extra boost from low inventory – that is, the relatively few listings of homes for sale.

Nationally, that inventory amounts to 3.4 month’s worth of sales. That compares to an average of 6.0 months since 2000. And in metro Atlanta, the shortage is even more acute: 2.8 months of inventory, according to the most recent report by Re/Max of Georgia.

In Atlanta, for example, the number of “starter” homes for sale has plunged 42 percent in the past year, according to Cheryl Young, a senior economist. “This inventory drop was matched by a stark 31.1 percent increase in starter home prices over the same period.”

At this rate, we're geared up to hit our pre-recession, inflation-adjusted prices in 2022. This time, though, there's no bubble to burst. Vacancy rates are still low, and prices are built on actual demand, rather than pure speculation and toxic lending practices. As the ARC pointed out in their 2017 Regional Snapshot: Affordable Housing:

Since 1999, overall, home prices have been rising faster than average wages, especially during the 2005 – 2007 period, where home prices nationwide were rising dramatically. During this period, however, the consumer could make up the gap between their earning and the price of home because lending standards were looser and getting a mortgage was significantly easier prior to the Great Recession. With the economy recovering post-recession, the gap has widened again, but lending standards are much stricter, thus it is harder to achieve home ownership.

We must impliment policies to provide long-term sollutions to this problem less we truely join the rest of the major cities in their afforability crises. I, for one, would like to not end up like New York or San Francisco in a decade or two, and actually still have reasonably priced options within the city for people of all incomes.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by fourthwarden

January of this year saw the continuation of the same pattern in rising housing prices that we've seen over the past 5 years. That is, that, after a pleatued Aug-Dec section of the previous year, prices are leaping up once more.

Metro Atlanta home prices climb faster than nation’s, says Case Shiller

At this rate, we're geared up to hit our pre-recession, inflation-adjusted prices in 2022. This time, though, there's no bubble to burst. Vacancy rates are still low, and prices are built on actual demand, rather than pure speculation and toxic lending practices. As the ARC pointed out in their 2017 Regional Snapshot: Affordable Housing:

We must impliment policies to provide long-term sollutions to this problem less we truely join the rest of the major cities in their afforability crises. I, for one, would like to not end up like New York or San Francisco in a decade or two, and actually still have reasonably priced options within the city for people of all incomes.

It sounds like the two analyses you are citing (Case Schiller and ARC) are for the metro area as a whole, not the city of Atlanta.

[fourthwarden]

Originally Posted by arjay57

It sounds like the two analyses you are citing (Case Schiller and ARC) are for the metro area as a whole, not the city of Atlanta.

Atlanta is, as surprising as it might be to any number of people here with any number of views, still part of the metro. Then again, using metro-wide data actually makes things look better than they are for the city.

Looking at Zillow's home-price index for the city itself, we went from $203,000 in Jan 2017 to $222,000 in Jan 2018, a 9.4% increase in prices, which outpaced metro-wide price increases by 2.9 points. Using Zillow's median listing price for the city itself, we went from $252,000 in Jan 2017 to $310,000 in Jan 2018, a 23% increase in prices.

Granted using Zillow might not be too great given their use of Bing's wonky city boundaries (seriously, what is with that? It's recent, since I use Zillow for property looking all the time and it's been right in the past, but what the heck is that boundary?).

Then again, has us for the city itself, so Zillow might not be too far off. Actually, all that extra stuff from SW Fulton might be pulling down their price growth values a bit.

Basically, for all the price gains made in the metro as a whole, the city itself is increasing in value much faster. Again, a lack of supply is to blame. Increase supply, meet existing and pent-up demand, slow or even reduce housing prices, help as many people get housing as possible, use increased revenue from the new people to make up any housing gaps.

[brown_dog_us]

Millenials want to move out of the dense apartments to SFHs. Where would you like to see the SFHs built?

[cqholt]

Originally Posted by brown_dog_us

Millenials want to move out of the dense apartments to SFHs. Where would you like to see the SFHs built?

You know this for a fact?

[brown_dog_us]

Originally Posted by cqholt

You know this for a fact?

I don't have any data, but I still get market research on residential construction in Metro Atlanta. About 3 years ago the research started pointing towards SFHs. About a year ago the "experts" started saying stay away from apartments and focus on SFHs. A lot of this research comes from what real estate agents say their customers want, what those customers can afford, and what the supply numbers are. Millenials are a big group and everyone is watching.

The term I keep seeing is that millenials want a small backyard for a kid or a dog to play in. This could be a townhome or a SFH, or it could be ITP or OTP. They aren't excited about the far flung exurbs where they can afford a house.

Also, watch what the Baby Boomers are doing. That generation is getting to retirement age and some will age in place, but a lot will move. Real estate is up right now, and a lot of people think baby boomers will start to cash out. This should create SFH inventory for millenials.

[rickms]

They aren't excited about the far flung exurbs where they can afford a house.

That's true for a lot of us beyond that age group.

[fourthwarden]

Originally Posted by brown_dog_us

Millenials want to move out of the dense apartments to SFHs. Where would you like to see the SFHs built?

I want them built where it is financially sustainable to do so. Where there's both want, and ability to pay for those kinds of homes (basically, demand). As long as we're also allowing the density to be built as well, considering that a fair amount of Millenials still want to live in multi-family facilities, Gen-Zs are coming up, and many Boomers are looking at shifting to areas that provide more services within closer distance (density).

Besides, single family housing doesn't even have to be really low-density. Old mill-home neighborhoods, streetcar suburbs, and Japanese residential neighborhoods give decent examples on increasing density without removing SFHs as options.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by fourthwarden

Atlanta is, as surprising as it might be to any number of people here with any number of views, still part of the metro. Then again, using metro-wide data actually makes things look better than they are for the city.

Looking at Zillow's home-price index for the city itself, we went from $203,000 in Jan 2017 to $222,000 in Jan 2018, a 9.4% increase in prices, which outpaced metro-wide price increases by 2.9 points. Using Zillow's median listing price for the city itself, we went from $252,000 in Jan 2017 to $310,000 in Jan 2018, a 23% increase in prices.

Granted using Zillow might not be too great given their use of Bing's wonky city boundaries (seriously, what is with that? It's recent, since I use Zillow for property looking all the time and it's been right in the past, but what the heck is that boundary?).

Then again, has us for the city itself, so Zillow might not be too far off. Actually, all that extra stuff from SW Fulton might be pulling down their price growth values a bit.

Basically, for all the price gains made in the metro as a whole, the city itself is increasing in value much faster. Again, a lack of supply is to blame. Increase supply, meet existing and pent-up demand, slow or even reduce housing prices, help as many people get housing as possible, use increased revenue from the new people to make up any housing gaps.

There's no doubt that housing prices in several parts of the city have increased. However, that's due to a number of factors, and not simply density.

For instance, you have to look at whether the house has been renovated and, if so, the quality of those renovations. What's the reputation of nearby schools? Do you have recreational amenities such as the Beltline? How is crime (both real and perceived) in the area? Is there a "trendiness" bonus? Is the neighborhood seen as one on the way up or the way down? How's the local shopping? How easy is it to drive to employment and cultural centers? Are there sidewalks? Is there a fenced yard? Is there trash or debris in the area? Do you get a garage or do you have to park on the street?

And what are comps going for? For example, consider this Grove Park beauty for only $259,800. While that may seem entirely reasonable, it's more than $100,000 higher than similar homes along Hollowell Parkway. https://atlanta.curbed.com/2017/10/4...galow-for-sale

All these and many other factors play into the mix.