Climate going downhill? (Austin, El Paso, Atlanta: humidity, town, worth)

[Need4Camaro]

I got sick over the past 3 days. It was like a mini-flu. I started getting the chills yesterday and the day before. I used this heat to my advantage and went outside and sat in my car to sweat it out - careful not to stay too long because nothing felt 'hot' to me at the time. Afterward I strolled around in the heat for another hour or so and my fever went down. I feel mostly normal today, just very stuffy.

[KathrynAragon]

Is this an El Nino year?

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by KathrynAragon

Is this an El Nino year?

Later this year. The El Nino is forming, but not affecting weather here yet.

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

Later this year. The El Nino is forming, but not affecting weather here yet.

Incorrect. It’s active and strengthening. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml. It can be seen by the early tropical storm development off the coast of Africa. Those storms usually don’t develop until September or October. If it was strong the storms probably would have made it closer to us, but because it’s weak, they got shredded with wind shear and pushed away by active cold fronts.

Correct, it’s not active in the Texas area yet. When speaking of climate I think broadly as in world wide and not local, which the climate center also speaks to and is a great resource for actual climate information snf not just hearsay.

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

Incorrect. It’s active and strengthening. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml. It can be seen by the early tropical storm development off the coast of Africa. Those storms usually don’t develop until September or October. If it was strong the storms probably would have made it closer to us, but because it’s weak, they got shredded with wind shear and pushed away by active cold fronts.

Correct, it’s not active in the Texas area yet. When speaking of climate I think broadly as in world wide and not local, which the climate center also speaks to and is a great resource for actual climate information snf not just hearsay.

I actually read something to the opposite? Like, the early storms in the Atlantic were due to prime storm conditions currently in place, but as the el Nino effect strengthened, the wind shear would stop those from forming as often/as quickly. The article was basically saying that if the el Nino did not form fast enough, we could have a very bad Atlantic storm season. The strong el Nino supports Pacific storms which result in more moisture from the Pacific basin coming to Texas.

This isn't the article, but is NOAA

After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/20...season-outlook

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

I actually read something to the opposite? Like, the early storms in the Atlantic were due to prime storm conditions currently in place, but as the el Nino effect strengthened, the wind shear would stop those from forming as often/as quickly. The article was basically saying that if the el Nino did not form fast enough, we could have a very bad Atlantic storm season. The strong el Nino supports Pacific storms which result in more moisture from the Pacific basin coming to Texas.

This isn't the article, but is NOAA

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/20...season-outlook

I think that’s what I’m saying. The prime storm conditions are there because of El Niño. It’s weak, so the wind shear is still there so they don’t make it to the US. I remember that report, that it’s supposed to be an average year, but the storms developing so far east is not normal, as I said earlier.

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

I think that’s what I’m saying. The prime storm conditions are there because of El Niño. It’s weak, so the wind shear is still there so they don’t make it to the US. I remember that report, that it’s supposed to be an average year, but the storms developing so far east is not normal, as I said earlier.

It is the opposite - the storms are early because there is 'strong' conditions in Africa/Atlantic and no shear yet (in the Atlantic) from El Nino. The 'strong' conditions will be (hopefully) offset by the 'negative' conditions created by El Nino (shear, mainly) later in the season.

El Nino is a 'positive' effect for Pacific storms (which can bring rain to Texas) and a 'negative' to Atlantic storms.

[TMSRetired]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

Later this year. The El Nino is forming, but not affecting weather here yet.

NOAA said it "arrived" on June 8th.

https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-...ther%20Service.
June 8, 2023 - The expected El Nino has emerged, according to scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. In the monthly outlook released today, forecasters issued an El Nino Advisory, noting that El Nino conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter.

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by TMSRetired

NOAA said it "arrived" on June 8th.

https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-...ther%20Service.
June 8, 2023 - The expected El Nino has emerged, according to scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. In the monthly outlook released today, forecasters issued an El Nino Advisory, noting that El Nino conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter.

Yes, but arrived in the Pacific and the affects have yet to spread world-wide.

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

Yes, but arrived in the Pacific and the affects have yet to spread world-wide.

Still confused about how you’re not understanding any of the articles that have been shared. El Niño is active. It’s not strong and it’s not affecting us yet. You can’t argue with NOAA.