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Criminalized? Will people have to miss their old days of driving for pleasure? Also, lol at people acting like if cars are such death matchines anyways. Suicide is more common actually than car crashes, also HOW BOUT stick with situational awareness when driving and not to do anything else? Drink, smoke, put make up on, etc. I feel like the next generation of car owners[People born 2004 to present] won't even get the feeling of what is like needing to maintain a car. Robots will probably take care of that. If car enthusiasm keeps going, just remember that without older stuff having evolved, most stuff won't be here anyways today.[Is kind of hard to explain what I mean by this]... Anyhow, they will fail mostly because of our government though. If a car is too slow to even bother noticing say a blind person crossing the street, suing on the auto companies will for sure be taken a to a next level. How bout let's work more on electric car supply first more though? How bout work more instead on fighting cellphone addiction? How bout let's work more on getting drivers to follow some driving laws better? Before making even self-driving a norm, let's work more on the following a little more, ok?
There was a time back in the 70s that some were predicting we'd run out of oil within 15 to 20 years. Car companies were trying all sorts of ways to make an engine that didn't run on traditional gasoline. Motorweek retro review showed an Oldsmobile turbine car that ran on coal dust.
I believe that eventually we will have self driving cars but not in mass production or distribution as you imagine within our lifetime. In a perfect world with perfect software that can't be hacked, failsafe design to slow and stop the car in the case of failure, and cost cutting could result in not only greatly reduced traffic deaths, but also dramatic reduction in fuel/energy per mile. But Murphy's Law trumps everything. Bugs, glitches, and hackers are a very real danger to a self driving car.
Maybe not in 15 years but eventually most cars will be mandated to have a self driving mode.
Government mandated all these safety features, seatbelts, helmets, back up cameras etc.. There probably will be a switch to return it to manual mode if driver chooses to. Maybe. As the manufacturers get to only offer self driving mode vehicle you don't have a choice but to buy that or a used car. Used cars eventually will be gone as the rate of attrition starts making a dent in the amount. Sure there wil always be some around but eventually as the auto drive vehicles trickle in the used car market those regular cars will be replaced. At most you will have exempt show or hobby cars. But it will be expensive to keep and use them.
But imo most important as insurance companies discover the benefit of a self driving car, they will change the way they figure out rates. Your car is completely manual drive? Your rate is higher because you're more of a risk to speeding or accidents. A self driving car is very unlikely to speed or get in accidents. And since cars will be hooked to a system so all other cars see each other, I'm sure it won't be a stretch to have a monitor if you take the car from self driving to manual mode (if that's even offered to be doable)
I mean insurance companies already have a driving monitor on customers cars. You plug it into your obd port then download it to them.
You understand that I'm not responsible to install a backup camera on my 1997 and 2001 vehicles, right? Those with cars built before seatbelts aren't required to install them, and even helmets are a state by state thing.
There will *ALWAYS* be "classic cars" around. Always. They won't be converted to self-driving and there will be affordable insurance available. I'm sure that as the decades roll by (many more than you're estimating), those vehicles will shift more and more into elite circles where you must have money... look at the brand Duesenberg for a modern example, they're simply expensive to buy due to the limited number, but that time will be LONG after I'm dead.
Similarly, there will always be countries where people can't afford "self driving", or where they simply don't work (heck, if they rely on map data alone, they won't work in the US Today), but there's still money to be made by auto makers in those countries so they will make sure they have a product that works for them. Come to think of it, how exactly would a farmer get about their business without being able to control their own vehicle off-roads? Or the home-owner do something simple like haul a load of rock into their back yard without manual controls? Nevermind the recreation aspects (4x4/rock crawling, hunting, backwoods cabins, etc...)
Again, time Will take its toll as these recreations change, but kids born Today are still being taught to enjoy getting off the grid (by those parents who enjoy it), and I'm willing to bet they'll fight to keep it through their lifetime.
As for me, I'm a driver. I still drive manual cars, used to roadrace motorcycles and AutoX cars (missing that). A mix would be just fine by me, perhaps with a visual indicator for vehicles that are, or are not automated. LOTS of people don't want to, or like, driving so they try to do something else when they Should be driving. Give them the out that they want and it becomes safer for Everyone. I'll forever be a "both hands on the wheel, eyes on the road ahead" kinda guy.
You understand that I'm not responsible to install a backup camera on my 1997 and 2001 vehicles, right? Those with cars built before seatbelts aren't required to install them, and even helmets are a state by state thing.
There will *ALWAYS* be "classic cars" around. Always. They won't be converted to self-driving and there will be affordable insurance available. I'm sure that as the decades roll by (many more than you're estimating), those vehicles will shift more and more into elite circles where you must have money... look at the brand Duesenberg for a modern example, they're simply expensive to buy due to the limited number, but that time will be LONG after I'm dead.
Similarly, there will always be countries where people can't afford "self driving", or where they simply don't work (heck, if they rely on map data alone, they won't work in the US Today), but there's still money to be made by auto makers in those countries so they will make sure they have a product that works for them. Come to think of it, how exactly would a farmer get about their business without being able to control their own vehicle off-roads? Or the home-owner do something simple like haul a load of rock into their back yard without manual controls? Nevermind the recreation aspects (4x4/rock crawling, hunting, backwoods cabins, etc...)
Again, time Will take its toll as these recreations change, but kids born Today are still being taught to enjoy getting off the grid (by those parents who enjoy it), and I'm willing to bet they'll fight to keep it through their lifetime.
As for me, I'm a driver. I still drive manual cars, used to roadrace motorcycles and AutoX cars (missing that). A mix would be just fine by me, perhaps with a visual indicator for vehicles that are, or are not automated. LOTS of people don't want to, or like, driving so they try to do something else when they Should be driving. Give them the out that they want and it becomes safer for Everyone. I'll forever be a "both hands on the wheel, eyes on the road ahead" kinda guy.
It seems a lot of these people pushing for and dreaming about self driving cars live within an urban bubble and never venture outside. Their sole purpose of driving is to go to and from work, in which they'd rather share with others, and going to the grocery store on their allotted weekly grocery day. They have no clue about the real world outside of their little bubble and would surely get lost if there wasn't a high rise anywhere within site. I don't think they realize that the majority of our own country, as well as the rest of the world is not like that!
While computer driven cars might be a nice novelty for some situations, I would not be much interested in owning one (maybe as a spare). Computers can be programmed to deal with anticipated situations. They cannot develop creative solutions when creative solutions become necessary.
In any event, I want to control computers, I do not want them controlling me. If people want to use them fine for them. Not for me.
Last edited by Coldjensens; 01-12-2017 at 11:02 AM..
I think it's going be great, the people in my town are too stupid to drive by themselves
A hacking though.
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