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Read the whole article. If you factor in the $7,500 tax rebate than it is a wash at 3 years and money in your pocket after that.
Typical head in the sand treating fed gov give aways as freebies. We are paying that rebate or it’s helping racket up our debt levels to ones we can’t afford.
Not all of the lithium on our planet can be feasibly extracted. That cuts down the amount of available lithium versus the total amount on the planet. Not to mention we also need lithium for billions of smartphone batteries, laptops, electric lawn care equipment, and anything else that uses rechargeable batteries. And, none of that includes the environmental catastrophe created when extracting the lithium and other precious metals. And, the child slave labor used to extract the lithium and other precious metals.
Environmentally speaking, the best thing anyone can do is drive the same car for their entire life. I'm still driving the same car I got at sixteen. Of course, I'm only twenty-three, so that isn't the biggest deal! But, I have no intention of selling it. I'm not giving up my V8. The sound of the engine as it revs and the feel of the transmission as it shifts cannot be replicated in an EV. And, I'm not spending forty to fifty thousand dollars on something that will be a brick after ten years, due to a single shorted out cell in the battery. That's a waste, and waste upsets me.
EV's are a toy for people with money. Most people cannot afford to have a brick after ten years of ownership, when a single cell shorts out and the car won't accelerate beyond five miles per hour.
A Camry can go five hundred miles, on average, on a tank of gas. A Model Y can only go three hundred miles at the most. I've already explained it in detail before on another thread, but it ends up costing $13,000 more to own a Model Y, over a ten year period, than a Camry. Gas and maintenance included. Electricity not included. Perhaps utility wasn't the right word.
Yea, the link I posted said as much with not all of the lithium on our planet can be feasibly extracted. The part you're missing though is that what is feasibly extracted is more than enough to replace all ICE vehicles with EVs. I think the question really is if we're going to need a lot more than that because we may want a much, much more expanded use of lithium-ion battery in other industries aside from road transportation, and then other side of this, whether alternative non-lithium-ion secondary cell chemistries like sodium-ion take a large position.
I think you're confused about what lithium is. Lithium extraction comes in many forms, but it's not generally a particularly awful extraction though that can vary by the source. I also think you've probably conflated lithium with perhaps cobalt which is what people point to with child slave labor usage. That latter part can be solved pretty quickly if there's the political will, but that's going to take some work so I highly encourage you to do some advocacy work and insist that US corporations have some way of verifying their supply chain as cobalt is used in ternary batteries as well as refining of petroleum to make products like gasoline. It's not like Congolese cobalt is the only source of cobalt--it's really more that it's the cheapest source. Plus, you don't necessarily need to use a ternary battery since LFP batteries are pretty good as well.
In the US currently, EVs are predominantly for people who are already going to buy in the premium segment and have a pathway to charging at home. They're a lot more convenient for a lot of people and would comparatively be cheaper to operate than other vehicles in the premium categories. I'm not sure you really understand the economics behind this. In other countries, especially within China and its export markets, EVs cover a much broader market segment. Like, a *much* broader market segment. A lot of that has to do with the aforementioned LFP battery chemistry which China got a mass production head start on for a good decade or so because the consortium of LFP patent holders (mostly Western institutions) made a deal with Chinese battery makers that they do not have to pay per production usage fees as long as they didn't export out of the domestic Chinese market. In that time period, China's automotive market grew to become the largest single market in the world and hence a huge LFP market for batteries with a lot of competition. Those key patents expired just last year and hence you're now seeing LFP batteries show up in other markets, but it'll take a while and it will be at least for the next few years dominated by Chinese battery makers.
You're not thinking through how most people are using these vehicles. The Camry has 500 miles of range, but you don't have a delivery service of gasoline into your tank for a steep discount every night when you park your vehicle. That's basically what an electric vehicle does for you where you may have a smaller tank, but you wake up with a full tank every day. For some use cases, that might not be great like if you're someone who needs to drive over 300 miles on most days, but that's a highly idiosyncratic driving pattern within the US for a personal vehicle. Again, a Tesla Model Y isn't the right segment comparison for a Camry. You understand that premium segment vehicles existed before Tesla made vehicles, right? Or that crossovers/SUVs have some differences from sedans hence why we have different terms for them. Toyota does have a premium badge though. It's called Lexus. The roughly comparable crossover is the Lexus RX and the Tesla Model Y is priced roughly the same. At the time of this post, the US MSRP for the base level Lexus RX is $49,950 and the Tesla Model Y base model starts at $47,740 though the base Tesla Model Y has AWD while the base AWD version of the Lexus RX starts at $51,550. This topic was about three year ownership and here the Tesla Model Y already starts at an advantage without including any federal tax credits. Also keep in mind that premium segment vehicles usually means premium gasoline and probably none-too-stellar fuel economy so each year of average driving means the gap widens significantly in total cost. This is one of the pretty clear reasons for why the premium segments hve gone over to EVs so rapidly.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 08-25-2023 at 10:39 PM..
The key phrase, or a variation, each of you have stated-"with the rebate".
Sorry but the Tesla EV is cheaper than the BMW ICE even without a rebate but why ignore the reality that a tax incentive is available - seems like a silly point to argue otherwise.
There isn't enough lithium on this planet to replace every ICE vehicle with an EV, and even if there were, there isn't enough electricity produced to power them.
They're a fad. You can get more utility out of a Toyota Camry than a Tesla Model Y and for tens of thousands of dollars less.
That is nonsense on both points. There is more than enough lithium, LI is the 20th most common element on earth but the reality is that ICE vehicles will be around for the foreseeable future. There is no regulation that is even hinting that you must drive an EV and even CA's EV "mandate" on sales allows 20% of vehicles sold to be hybrids.
Just to put some numbers on the Lithium - do the math. There are about 1.4 B vehicles currently in use around the world. There are about 26 M metric tons in proven reserves around the world (from approx 90 M tons total). According to the US DOE data, there is 8 kg Li in an average EV battery currently (likely to improve) so enough proven reserves to cover approx 3.2 B vehicles or over 2x more than exist and 11 B if use all LI. Also there are already batteries that do not use Li so can cover even more.
As far as electricity - a study of US capacity done by the DOE in 2019 says there is enough to cover even the most aggressive conversion to EVs. According to another study by the DOE, EVs are 4 to 6 times more efficient than ICE and it would take roughly 800 to 1,200 billion kWh of electricity to power all vehicles if they were EVs. The US used about 4,130 billion kWh of electricity in 2019. This means if all cars were EVs that year, the US would have consumed 20-30% more electricity. Currently the US runs at about 37% of capacity and most EVs charge at night when excess capacity exists so should be able to cover even if all vehicles were EVs today.
BTW - the comparison would be between a Camry and a Tesla Model 3 - a Model Y is an SUV with much more room and capability. A mid grade Camry XLE is $32.3K, the Model 3 with more content is $32.7K after tax incentive but very different vehicles and the Tesla outsells the Camry nearly 2 to 1.
Given rising demand from mandates to remove or ban sales of gas stoves and oil/gas heating in homes, and the growing number of EV's, coupled with the lack of a plan to meet that demand, rates are likely to rise even faster.
States like California are closing coal, gas, and nuclear power plants as fast as they can. They actually had to reopen their last nuclear plant, because of brownouts a couple of summers ago. As it is, California is now a net importer of electricity from neighboring states.
From EIA.gov, here are the 2021 rates for the top 14 states & D.C.:
Hawaii 30.31
Alaska 20.02
California 19.65
Massachusetts 19.06
Rhode Island 18.44
Connecticut 18.32
New Hampshire 17.37
Vermont 16.34
New York 16.11
New Jersey 14.01
Maine 13.96
Michigan 12.93
D.C. 12.81
Maryland 11.48
All other states are around or below the national average of $11.10. I have to wonder, first of all, could Hawaii possibly be any less affordable? Electricity is triple the cost of the national average, so you're going to be paying through the nose to recharge overnight, unless you have solar but even then...
Alaska is a state that seems an unlikely part of the country for an EV. With its harsh winters and vast sparsely populated land mass, you're going to need a 4 wheel drive SUV or truck to get where you need to go, unless you live in Anchorage and commute 10 miles a day maximum.
California barely edges out Massachusetts for the #3 spot, and as noted, California is busy shutting down its electric generation capacity, so rates will only rise, even with solar and wind generation which are not ramping up fast enough.
This is an important aspect of owning electric vehicles but is never mentioned by proponents, nor by state governments that are so eager to switch people over to EV's while simultaneously taking away people's ability to recharge them.
Caveat emptor.
More bad info - EVs charge during the night because with an EV, you get a much lower rate than the average shown to encourage that - charge when excess capacity exists. For example, SDG&E has an average rate that is even higher than HI at about $0.42 per KW (peak is about $0.83) but the EV rate is $0.15 so it costs under $15 to fill - less than the cost of 3 gal of gas. In NV, my EV rate is $0.05 - costs under $5 to fill for 300 miles - that is about the cost of 1 gallon of gas there.
Not defending the CA stupidity but lets get the facts correct - CA has added about as much as it shut down and has slightly increased the generating capacity over the last couple of years and added backup storage that better meets peak demand.
I see the Kona EV is now $33k-$42K so the EV prices are coming down so you would need to re-evaluate.
I'm an EV advocate but they don't serve every need and we will still need ICE vehicles for certain purposes for the forseeable future. One of the biggest hurdles is pricing and we're now seeing the prices go down for EV's.
The Model Y is probably the best EV value currently. We've had ours for over 3 years and have over 40K miles on it and it has been amazing and saved us thousands so far in energy and maintenance costs compared to any ICE comparable we could have bought.
Some combination of more energy/range for the weight of the battery pack and lowered pricing is needed for EV's to fully defeat ICE from a value for money proposition.
More bad info - EVs charge during the night because with an EV, you get a much lower rate than the average shown to encourage that - charge when excess capacity exists. For example, SDG&E has an average rate that is even higher than HI at about $0.42 per KW (peak is about $0.83) but the EV rate is $0.15 so it costs under $15 to fill - less than the cost of 3 gal of gas. In NV, my EV rate is $0.05 - costs under $5 to fill for 300 miles - that is about the cost of 1 gallon of gas there.
Not defending the CA stupidity but lets get the facts correct - CA has added about as much as it shut down and has slightly increased the generating capacity over the last couple of years and added backup storage that better meets peak demand.
You are right that I neglected the EV rate plans which discount the cost of recharging overnight (after midnight). These discounted rates make EV usage competitive with current gasoline prices.
But, you have to wait until midnight to start charging. I guess that can be automated with a timer. And, the recharge has to be done be 7am or whenever you hit the road. That’s probably good enough for most people.
I have to wonder what’s going to happen when the majority of people are plugging in at night, though. Doesn’t that make it a peak usage time?
Keep in mind that electricity prices are going to keep increasing, at least until a tipping point is reached for solar where enough rooftops have it and enough solar power farms are built.
Also, the current math is based on artificially high oil prices caused by Biden shutting down oil production and pipelines to deliberately drive up prices, combined with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Get rid of Biden, end the war, and suddenly you’re going to see oil prices dropping. During Trump, gasoline prices at the pump were approximately equivalent to 1970, when adjusted for inflation. Given our vast shale reserves, the potential is to see oil prices drop again to that level, and why shouldn’t they? Oil is an essential industrial commodity and jacking up the cost has caused terrible inflation.
That said, probably the world is better off not burning so much oil and gas, but the volatility of prices makes it a complicated decision to switch to EVs.
Typical head in the sand treating fed gov give aways as freebies. We are paying that rebate or it’s helping racket up our debt levels to ones we can’t afford.
Typical resorting to name calling......no substance in your post.
the maximum $7,500 "tax credit" it is a bit more complex than what marketing makes it look - see link above
Yes, indeed.
For example, from the link above,
Quote:
You may qualify for a credit up to $7,500 under Internal Revenue Code Section 30D if you buy a new, qualified plug-in EV or fuel cell electric vehicle (FCV). The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 changed the rules for this credit for vehicles purchased from 2023 to 2032.
The credit is available to individuals and their businesses.
To qualify, you must:
Buy it for your own use, not for resale
Use it primarily in the U.S.
In addition, your modified adjusted gross income (AGI) may not exceed:
$300,000 for married couples filing jointly
$225,000 for heads of households
$150,000 for all other filers
That disqualifies me right there. I can't qualify because my AGI is too high.
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But, I have no intention of selling it. I'm not giving up my V8. The sound of the engine as it revs and the feel of the transmission as it shifts cannot be replicated in an EV. And, I'm not spending forty to fifty thousand dollars on something that will be a brick after ten years, due to a single shorted out cell in the battery. That's a waste, and waste upsets me. 